[Transfer] Fluent that never disappears, and the tens of billions behind it

The influenza that never disappears, and the tens of billions behind it

Source: amino observation/Fang Taozhi

For two years, people found that under the strict epidemic prevention and control measures, not only the new coronary virus, but also the influenza virus was blocked.

According to data from the National Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the number of colds in my country has fallen from 1.14 million in 2020 to 420,000 in 2021.

Together with influenza patients, there is the performance of the influenza concept stock. Once the "Influenza Pharmaceutical" Osaswavi sales quickly "zero" from the 6 billion peaks in 2019; Almost zero. This also makes their stock price almost cut off ankle.

However, just as people are optimistic that the flu virus is disappearing, it has a comeback. Right now, whether it is globally or in the south of my country, the flu is trending again.

This also caused the abandoned influenza concept stocks to return to life. The stock price of the influenza concept stocks such as East Sunshine Pharmaceuticals, Jindic, Hualan Bio and other influenza has risen for several days.

However, under the strict epidemic prevention measures in China, the influenza virus is afraid that it is difficult to set off too much waves.

Then, the prosperity of the concept of influenza may only flow to the surface, and it is unknown how much the performance can achieve.

/ 01 /

The disappearing flu is coming again

In September 2021, an article on the "Nature" sub -publication pointed out that from April 2020 to August 2021, there was no separation of type B/YAMAGATA spectrum strain from August 2020 to August 2021, which may mean this meant One -spectrum virus strain may have been extinct.

At the same time, the incidence of influenza has reached a new low whether it is domestic or abroad. Many people are optimistic that in the process of competing with the new crown, we first destroy the flu virus.

However, the reality is that with the relaxation of the overseas epidemic prevention and control policies, the influenza disease that has been stunned and drums has come again. Right now, many countries and regions including the United States, Europe, Australia, and Brazil, the number of influenza incidence has begun to rebound after experiencing a trough in 2021.

This is not surprising. It is tantamount to killing influenza completely.

On the one hand, there are many hosts of influenza viruses in nature, and it is not easy to completely eliminate influenza. And as an RNA virus, influenza virus can infect host cells, making the virus spread quickly.

On the other hand, the reason is that the flu virus has a strong mutation characteristics. Almost without vaccines are effective for all influenza variants, which also makes people need to vaccinate new influenza vaccines every year.

In addition, in the eyes of many experts, strict epidemic prevention measures will reduce the immunity of flu, which will lead to surge in the number of influenza virus infections and increase infection toxicity.

In China, many southern provinces have recently discovered the rebound of influenza viruses. Hainan, Hunan, Jiangxi and other provinces have recently released early warning news about influenza prevention.

According to data from the National Influenza Center, in the 23rd week of 2022, the percentage of influenza sample cases reported by the Southern Provincial Honor Hospital (ILI%) was 5.8%, which was higher than the level of the previous week (5.1%) and higher than the same period of 2019-2021. (4.4%, 3.0%, and 4.3%).

Under the threat of the influenza virus, the influenza concept stocks that have been abandoned by the market have been activated again.

East Sunshine, which is famous for the influenza special medicine Oasis, has risen by nearly 40%in the nearly four trading days; Hualan Bio and Jindik's stock price with influenza vaccines have also risen successively.

However, when the regression rationality, the stock price rises will eventually have strong performance growth support. So, can this wave of influenza virus look up at the concept stock of influenza concept stocks? The answer may be negative.

/ 02 /

It is difficult to copy 6 billion myths in Oshwi

Similar to the means of fighting the new coronal virus, we also rely on the psychic cooperation of oral medicine and vaccine.

In the fluid oral medication, the most well -known is Oasiswell. Although Ozhewi's original research medicine was Roche's "Diffi", in China, the sales of "Kewei" of East Sunshine drugs have far exceeded "Dafi" and have become "influenza magic medicine".

In just one year in 2019, with the drug of Osdowe, East Sunshine revenue reached 5.93 billion yuan, accounting for 95%of the company's entire income; The increase was as high as 77.7%, and in January 2020, the highest reached 26.61 yuan/share.

But beautiful days are always short.

The coming of the new crown epidemic has severely squeezed the living space of flu. This caused "Kewei" to decline all the way, and sales in 2020 fell to 2 billion yuan, and by 2021, it was only 559 million yuan.

The stock price of East Sunshine also declined with one way. From the highest point in 2020 at 26.61 yuan/share, it is only 6.59 yuan/share, and the stock price shrinks more than 74%.

Today, seeing the trend of fluctuations in flu, the first thing investors think of is East Sunshine. Reflected in the stock price, its stock price has risen nearly 40%in the past four trading days.

However, it should be noted that even if the flu is raging again, the story of East Sunshine is difficult to replicate by Olympic Aville. After all, this is different in the past, and now the market of Oshwewe has become a red sea. In 2017, the patent -related patents of the phosphates of the phosphate have expired. Facing the huge market, domestic pharmaceutical companies have acted. According to the Insight database, the application of 69 pharmaceutical companies around Oasis Veye has reported the application of related products. Among them, 15 pharmaceutical companies have passed consistency evaluation.

As the number of entrants increases, the unique phenomenon of "Kewei" will no longer exist. At the same time, although Ji Cai is late.

In the latest seventh batch of national centralized and volume procurement catalogs, Oasis Vei is listed. It is not difficult to imagine that after the purchase of volume, a price war is inevitable, and the market size of Oasiswell will also shrink.

In addition to the competition from a large number of generic drugs, Osdowewe also faces the dimension of influenza innovative drugs.

In April 2021, Roche's innovative medicine Macara Weisa was approved for listing.

Macarachawe is currently the only anti -influenza drug that has been approved by a single dose of orally. Simply put, Macarachawe can only take effect once and stop virus detoxification within 24 hours. And Oascwei usually needs 72 hours to play a role.

There are also many new drugs in the fluidum at the research stage. The faster progress is the ZSP1273 of all beings Ruichian, which is a small molecular RNA polymerase inhibitor that treats the influenza A influenza. In the second phase of clinical trials, ZSP1273 showed the potential for treating type A influenza. At present, ZSP1273 has entered the third phase of the clinic.

In addition, some of the early influenza drugs are also rubbing their fists. For example, Qingfeng Pharmaceutical's nucleic acid inhibitors GP681, ZX-7101A, RNA polymerase inhibitor of Zhengxiang Pharmaceutical.

What's more, it is difficult to have a large scale of flu. Taken together, this time the fluctuations come back. Even if the sales of Ostewewe increased in the short term, it is difficult to create another 6 billion myth.

/ 03 /

Influenza vaccine, competition begins to be hot

In addition to the influenza oral medication, the recovery of the influenza also caused the influenza vaccine concept stocks. The use of influenza oral medicine is treatment, while influenza vaccines are the most effective way to prevent influenza virus.

Earlier, under the influence of the new crown epidemic, people's acceptance of vaccines has been increased, which has also increased sales of influenza vaccines in the early stage of the epidemic.

Specifically, from 2019 to 2020, the number of influenza vaccines in my country increased at a high speed for two consecutive years, with 30.7842 million and 57.6525 million, respectively. In 2020, it was even difficult to find.

As the new crown rays, people's awareness of prevention and control has improved, and wearing masks and handling hands has become standard for epidemic prevention. In 2021, the influenza vaccine approval of the cliff -type cliff fell to 2.1499 million.

The major domestic influenza vaccine players such as Hualan vaccine, Jinsick, and Bio creatures have been affected by a lot of influence.

For example, it is currently only one flu vaccine for its approval of listing products. In the fourth quarter of 2021, King Dick had almost no revenue, with a total revenue of 396 million yuan a year, a year -on -year decrease of 33.41%.

The lives of Hualan creatures are not good. In 2020, its influenza vaccine revenue reached 2.42 billion yuan. By 2021, the revenue of influenza vaccine decreased by 24.66%year -on -year to 1.82 billion yuan.

However, the influenza vaccine players have a hope for this year.

Under the threat of influenza virus recovery, the batch of influenza vaccines will begin earlier this year. In 2021, the influenza vaccine was issued and issued since July. However, at the end of May this year, many companies announced that the vaccine had signed a listing and started delivery.

This also made the market see hope. From June 15th to 20th, the stock prices of Jindi and Hualan biological stocks rose by 33.78%and 20.63%, respectively.

However, this wave of influenza affects the geometry of influenza vaccine's business, and it remains to be discussed. After all, like influenza drugs, influenza vaccine is also the Red Sea Circuit, and competition has long been hot.

According to the website and vaccine approval information of the State Drug Administration, nine manufacturers were supplied to influenza vaccines from 2020-2021.

In addition, due to more comprehensive protection, the fourth -valent vaccine will gradually replace the three -valent vaccine in the future. At present, there are 7 four -price influenza virus cracked vaccines in my country, and there are many vaccines in the clinical stage of clinical III. For example, the tetravalent virus of Zhi Feilong Koma, Guoguang Shengke, and Sanofbastel.

In the future, the number of production enterprises in domestic quadrangers will increase further, which will greatly alleviate the problem of insufficient influenza vaccine capacity before. At the end of 2021, some institutions had counted the domestic industry in the production of influenza vaccine capacity in the domestic industry, to be registered, and to be expanded. The domestic vaccination rate in 2020 was less than 4%.

Back to the next, although the domestic influenza vaccination rate is still very low, the potential growth space is large. According to the calculation of Huaxing Securities, China's influenza vaccine market will increase from 6.4 billion yuan in 2020 to 19.7 billion yuan in 2025.

However, with the continuous influx of influenza vaccine players, market competition will be more intense, and it is bound to further squeeze the living space of existing players. / 04 /

Summarize

Although the influenza virus has a rebound trend, this impact on the performance of the influenza concept stocks is still unknown.

After all, under the influence of the new crown epidemic, people have been greatly strengthened by wearing masks and hand -washing of hand -washing prevention. This means that even if the flu has a trend of rising, under the protection of strict epidemic prevention measures, the possibility of influenza if it is transmitted on a large scale.

Take a step back, although the domestic influenza vaccine's potential market exceeds 10 billion yuan, the market has already gradually become the Red Sea. Whether it is an influenza oral medication or a vaccine player, it is unknown how many cakes can eventually get in such a market and fight.

For investors, the pursuit of influenza concept stocks needs to return to rationality. After all, the stock price that has no performance support rose, and it was an empty game after all, and it came quickly.

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