What is the trend of the global new crown epidemic this winter?Wu Zunyou's latest judgment

Author:Changjiang Daily Time:2022.09.23

On September 23, Wu Zunyou, chief expert of the Popular disease of the China Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, posted a post on his personal Weibo to make a judgment on the trend of the global new crown epidemic this winter:

Recently, the World Health Organization Director Director Tan Desai said that the dawn of the new crown epidemic has been seen and called on countries to continue to work hard; US President Biden announced that the new crown in the United States has ended; Continue to strengthen the new crown vaccine. This information is not only exciting, but also confusing. What is the global new crown epidemic situation?

1. Accurately interpret and comprehensively understand

The information transmitted by the World Health Organization Tan Desai's chief of the Director of Health made everyone see the hope of victory in the new crown, but his second half of his sentence should be more important. He is emphasizing that countries around the world need to continue to implement new crown prevention and control measures. The main basis for the World Health Organization to release this information is that the number of global deaths caused by the recent crown epidemic has declined significantly.

The number of new crowns in the world is based on the weekly unit. Since late March 2020, the lowest is the three statistical nodes of May 30, June 5, and June 13 this year. The number of deaths was less than 10,000, and it died from 8881 to 9,374. On September 5th and September 12th this year, although the deaths of the previous week were decreased compared to the previous week, the absolute number of deaths was still more than 10,000, which were 11836 and 10102 cases.

In general, the number of new crowns is significantly declining. Since April 18 this year, the number of new crowns around the world has been controlled below 20,000 per week. From March 23, 2020 to April 11, 2022, the number of deaths per week of the new crown has been more than 20,000, of which more than 60%of them are more than 50,000 per week, and the maximum is over 100,000 at the highest at the highest. example. The peak of the number of new crowns per week corresponding to the number of new crown reporting cases in the world is the first wave of new crowns. For example; the third wave of August 23, 2021, the number of Zhou died 71,339 cases; the fourth wave on February 7, 2022, the number of Zhou deaths was 77,170 cases; on August 8, 2022, the number of Zhou died was 17,766 cases.

The above data shows that the threat of the new crown on human death is significantly reduced.

If you focus on the first half of Tan Detai's speech and ignore the second half of the sentence, it is difficult to become a reality in the short term. It should be understood that the World Health Organization emphasizes that countries around the world need to continue to work hard to do a good job of preventing and controlling the new crown in order to achieve the desire to end the new crown epidemic as soon as possible.

The European Medicines Agency-EMA said recently that the new crown epidemic has not yet ended in Europe and has called on European countries to continue the vaccination work to prepare for the new round of epidemic.

There is an old saying in China, "Those who walk a hundred miles are half ninety." The closer to victory, the more you have to work hard.

2. The main motivation to cause a wave of new crown epidemic situation

The main power factors that determine the global new crown epidemic include three aspects: virus mutations, crowd gathering and flow, environmental factors.

From the perspective of the virus, the variation of the virus has changed its infectious, pathogenicity and immune escape ability, which is one of the main drivers of the spread of new waves of epidemic.

From the perspective of the crowd, the population is dense, the personnel gathering, the frequency of personnel flow, and the wide range of flow. It is a dynamic factor for the formation of a new wave of new crown epidemic.

From the perspective of the environment, it is mainly temperature, humidity and ventilation, which affects the spread of the new crowns.

The first wave of the world's new crown occurred in the winter of 2020. The main reason is that there are many holidays in winter, which causes crowd to increase and increase flow. At the same time, the environmental factors are cold in winter.

The second wave of epidemics and the third wave of epidemic occurred in the late summer and autumn of the late 2021, mainly caused by mutant strain Delta.

The fourth wave of epidemic spans a large span. It occurred from the winter of 2021 to the spring of 2022. It was mainly affected by the three factors of the mutant strain Omikon, the increase of the number of people in winter, and the frequent flow of flow, and the cold winter and spring.

The fifth wave of epidemic occurred in the summer of 2022, mainly due to the influence of Omikon's new mutant strains.

3. Three scenes of the situation this winter

The trend of the new crown epidemic this winter is still difficult to determine. However, there are three possible scenarios in the epidemic trend.

The first scene is that the epidemic continues to improve under the current situation. Although it is unlikely to achieve the end of the new crown epidemic this winter, the number of diseases and deaths of the new crown will continue to decline. The possibility of this scene is relatively small, with a probability of less than 30%.

The second scenario is to maintain or fluctuate in the current epidemic situation, that is, the number of new crowns this winter fluctuated in 30,000 to 50,000 per week. The possibility of this scene exists, with a probability of about 30%-50%.

The third scenario is that this winter will appear the sixth wave of new crown epidemic in the world. The possibility of this scene is relatively high, with a probability of about 50%. There are three basis for judgment: First, the current global epidemic situation is still at a high level; the other is to enter the winter soon. Even if there are no new mutant strains, people gather and flow, and the winter environment is enough to put the current epidemic situation. Pushing to a new wave of popularity; the third is that according to the virus mutation in the past three years, the possibility of new mutant strains cannot be ruled out. Although the possibility of the third middle scene is relatively greater, the number of deaths caused by the new crown epidemic this winter will not be very large. There are three basis: First, the global vaccination continues to improve, and the vaccination rate continues to increase; the second is that the first five waves of epidemic have caused the weakest part of the people in the crowd, and the remaining part of the new crown has relatively strong anti -hit ability; three It is a summary of experience from the past epidemic prevention and control, and the application of new treatment drugs, the health system is more capable of cope with the possible new round of epidemic conditions.

(Source:@（（chinacdc)