Zhang Jinghan, the chief of Shen Wan Pharmaceutical: The regression of the reasoning of the collection policy, and the long -term depending on the current investment value of the bottom

Content consolidation Zhang Jinghan, the chief of Shenwan Pharmaceutical, on September 16 "Chief Decoding: How to invest in the fourth quarter? "Roadshow text record.

The core point of the road show:

The growth rate of the entire medical sector in the first half of the year was very eye -catching. In the first half of the year, China Stock Exchange Medical had more than 40%of the growth rate, which was much higher than the level of profit growth of the biomedical sector. In the third and fourth quarters, when the epidemic was relieved in the first half of the year, we believe that the medical sector still maintains a relatively high -speed growth, and in the third quarter, like medical beauty -related sectors, there may be some marginal ones in the second quarter. Great.

The administrative command of the American Biological Manufacturing is actually just a programmatic document that has a unified cage type, which has no substantial impact on the performance of A -share CXO companies including orders. There are some concerns that the market reflects excessive interpretation and policies and excessive Sino -US relations. We think that this order of CXO companies listed in the country, especially A -shares, and its future execution in hand include the second half of the year and next year. The actual performance is fulfilled, and there is no substantial impact on the product.

The policy of new medical infrastructure and the logic of domestic alternatives. In the future, medical equipment will still increase well. Looking at the second half of the year and next year, the state of high prosperity will continue to rise steadily.

Looking at the rules of dental implants, the Medical Insurance Bureau conveyed a signal, that is, the needs of consumer medical care, because it is not a serious need for medical treatment related to life and death, or the people's demand for their own quality of life, or put this rights into the rights into the rights of their own interests to the rights of their own interests to the rights of their own interests. In various provinces, the medical insurance bureau does not do excessive intervention, which is the first good signal.

The continuous adjustment of the sector is in the final analysis of the emotions of the sector. Especially in the second half of last year, it began to be taken off by the collection policy in the second half of last year, without completely repairing it from the fragile emotions.

The collection policy of the Medical Insurance Bureau is in the process of slowly returning to rationality. For various sub -sectors, especially for the sub -sector, regardless of the actual impact and the negative emotions of the plate, it is now a stage close to the end.

The CSI Medical Index has fallen 50%from the high point. If the perspective of long -term value investment, it must now be a bottom position. But investors' emotional restoration of negative policies actually requires a process. There are demand, matching paid matching, the attributes of the Yangyang industry of the pharmaceutical sector have not changed, the demand is very good, and it is a very high barrier supply pattern, so it is much better than many ordinary manufacturing patterns. From the perspective of long -term investment, the current valuation level must be a very good value investment time point at the bottom.

The following is the essence record:

Question 1: How to look at the continuous adjustment of the recent CXO sector, the future performance?

Zhang Jinghan: The administrative order in the United States "The Initiative of Starting National Biotechnology and Biological Manufacturing" came out on the 12th, and a lot of domestic public accounts were reproduced. In fact, some Chinese translations were actually added with some subjective understanding and some content that did not exist. Read the original text carefully. The detail document emphasizes that the United States must support the development of synthetic biology related industries. The full text does not mention the so -called sanctions, let alone China, and has no actual impact on many A -share listing CXO companies. In addition, the amount of US $ 2 billion in the rules, which contains 1.27 billion US dollars, is dominated by the Ministry of National Defense. The drug -related drugs are dominated by the US health department, with only about 40 million US dollars. Therefore, in general, the market has over -interpreted this policy, which also includes overwhelming concerns about Sino -US relations. In fact, the order of the A -share CXO company and the future implementation of the order include the actual performance of the second half of the year and next year. And there is no substantial impact on the product.

The entire CXO sector was the best performance in the sub -sectors of all biomedicine in the first half of the year. The entire revenue was close to 75%year -on -year, and in June, it was 87%, a very high growth rate. In addition, Q2 has a very large improvement over Q1. The revenue growth rate of Q2 than Q1 is close to 20%, and the profit growth rate is 100%.

CXO order is a forward -looking indicator. Whether it is the order or the new order, the new crown -related orders are removed. You can understand that basically lock in the second half of the year or even the first half of next year.

The domestic pharmaceutical industry is in the early days when imitation to innovation. Therefore, the innovative medicine industry must be a continuous high -prosperous industry in the future. The domestic CRO is the most direct benefit of the upstream of the innovative pharmaceutical industry. This prosperity will have a continuous high growth. Logic, supporting the industrial logic promoted by CXO forward, is continuously verified, and no logic has been falsified. The more CXO, the more you have the opportunity to invest in the bottom value investment.

Question 2: The future investment opportunities of medical equipment?

Zhang Jinghan: Medical equipment is also a plate that we recommend in the second half of the year and next year. The entire equipment sector's performance in the first half of the year. The entire income end is 8%of the steady growth. The device sector's attention in the secondary market is very high.

The first is a new medical infrastructure. In the first two years of the epidemic, in order to cope with the development of the epidemic, including in order to cope with the needs of everyone's increasingly improving consultation, the third -level hospitals in the city center have been built in the suburbs. The demand for medical equipment in this new medical infrastructure is very large. Including video equipment, including some guardianship equipment, and even some inspection equipment must be purchased in large quantities. The second is the "Fourteenth Five -Year Plan" plan for the pharmaceutical industry. This plan is repeatedly mentioned and controlled. From the perspective of hospital procurement, many policies in the country have encouraged hospitals. Domestic equipment companies have some tilt and support. Domestic -produced, especially large -scale high -end equipment, will slowly replace some market share of imported equipment in the future. The proportion of this piece will definitely be advanced with the development of large domestic image equipment companies in the future. A relatively large market share increase.

The policy of new medical infrastructure and the logic of domestic alternatives. In the future, medical equipment will still increase well. Looking at the second half of the year and next year, the state of high prosperity will continue to rise steadily.

Question 3: Private hospitals were previously considered to be less affected by policies, but recently, dental implants have led to significant fluctuations in stock prices. How do I interpret it?

Zhang Jinghan: First of all, the secondary market actually reacted to the policy of dental implants. We saw that the final finalized documents were greatly eased from the previous policy of the medical insurance bureau. Looking at the rules of dental implants, the Medical Insurance Bureau conveyed a signal, that is, the needs of consumer medical care, because it is not a serious need for medical treatment related to life and death, or the people's demand for their own quality of life, or put this rights into the rights into the rights of their own interests to the rights of their own interests to the rights of their own interests. In various provinces, each province can do such a collection of such collection. The Medical Insurance Bureau does not do excessive intervention. This is the first very good signal.

The second point is that the price of the entire process of dental implantation process gives 4,500 yuan in price. This price is even higher than the current prices of some private hospitals. Essence

The third point is that the private hospital calls to participate in the unsuccessful, and the details are very clear. The private hospitals do not enforce the participation. This is also a very good signal.

In the first half of the year, the Health Commission mentioned very clearly that it was a supporting attitude towards private hospitals. The attitude of dental implants for the Medical Insurance Bureau was also very clear. Private hospitals were still a market -oriented autonomous pricing model.

Question 4: How to view the impact of subsequent collection policies on the plate?

Zhang Jinghan: The collection policy of the Medical Insurance Bureau is in the process of slowly returning to rationality. For the sub -sectors, especially for the sub -plate of the medicine, regardless of the actual impact and the effects of the negative emotions of the sector, it is now a close ending sound. Phase. At present, the policy of drugs has actually reached the stage where there are no large varieties that can be used, especially the episodes of chemical drugs have been collected.

We look at the remaining medical insurance. The balance at the end of 2021 is close to 3 trillion, far exceeding the money that needs to be spent each year. In the first half of this year, the balance is about 45 billion yuan. In fact Without the previous two years of anxiety, its policy is slowly returning to rationality, including the dental implants collection policy that does not integrate innovative equipment and eventually landing.

In the future, it may involve the variety of collecting collection. In fact, the market's response to the stock price has long been in the first few batches of collection, and the companies and stock prices that may be collected at the back will be used to the level that has been collected. It responded in advance, so I think the impact of Jixi on the negative emotions of the sector must definitely end up. Regarding the impact of actual industry companies, medicines must be at the end of the end, and the equipment sector is also in the middle period. It may be close to the end of the end next year.

Recently, the pharmaceutical sector has shown a structural market. Many of the valuations that were suppressed by the collection before, especially some consumables companies, began to rise slowly. Therefore, regardless of the actual impact on the industry or the impact on the stock price of the sector, the impact of the collection is the bottom phase of the end, and then some rebound signs appear.

Question 5: How to view the investment value of the medical beauty sector?

The performance of the medical beauty in the first half of the year is actually very eye -catching. Although everyone feels that there is a slight gap with the expected growth rate of 50%at the beginning of the year, you have to consider that under the influence of the epidemic, several leading medical aesthetic companies are still the more leading medical companies. The growth of 30%to 40%has actually been very eye -catching. Even under the influence of the epidemic, there is still a very good industry features of market demand and prosperity.

I feel that from the perspective of the direction of the industry, because the scope of consumer medical care itself is also the scope of the country's support, the country's policy is still in the direction of support, but there are indeed some channels or individual clinics before before. It is not so compliant. There may be no qualifications for medical operations. The chaos in this industry will gradually be standardized. In the process of standardization, the more standardized a industry is more conducive to the development of the leader.

Question 6: The stock price of the medical sector has fallen very much, and nearly 50%of the high point has fallen. How to look forward to the market outlook?

Zhang Jinghan: In the final analysis, the emotions of the sector, especially the market in the second half of 2021, began to be scared by the collection policy, and never completely repaired from the fragile emotions, because from 2017 to 2021, from 2017 to 2021 The increase in this wave of bull markets has risen little by little, and the fall is actually falling little by little. Therefore, the emotional restoration of this sector must also be repaired and repaired back. Standing at this point in the second half of the year, including the risk of the entire sector next year, I think the risk of collecting collection still exists, but this risk is basically a well -sufficient Price in in the valuation and stock price of each sub -sector. It's right.

If the perspective of long -term value investment, it must be a bottom position now. Looking at the attributes of the Chaoyang industry in the pharmaceutical sector for a long time, I always feel that it has not changed. China will face a very serious aging in the future. The industry demand is rigid and continuous. As our generation slowly grows old, it is definitely not just a payment path of the national medical insurance. The development of multiple payment paths will also open the problem facing the payment end for the pharmaceutical sector. There are demand, matching paid matching, the attributes of the Yangyang industry of the pharmaceutical sector have not changed, the demand is very good, and it is a very high barrier supply pattern, so it is much better than many ordinary manufacturing patterns.

Therefore, from the perspective of long -term investment, the current valuation level must be a very good value investment time point.

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[Risk Tips] Medical ETF tracking the target index is CSI Medical Index (399989). The component stock structure simulation comes back. Its index component stocks may change, and their historical performance does not indicate the future performance of the index. Any information that appears in this article (including but not limited to individual stocks, comments, predictions, charts, indicators, theories, any form of expression, etc.) is only used as a reference. Investors must be responsible for any self -determined investment behavior. In addition, any viewpoint, analysis and prediction in this article do not constitute any form of investment suggestions for readers, and the company does not bear any responsibility for direct or indirect losses caused by the content of this article. Investors should read legal documents such as the Fund Contract, the Recruitment Manual, and the Fund Products Information, and other legal documents to understand the specific situation and characteristics of the fund and the characteristics of risk returns. Different sales institutions have different risk evaluation methods. The risk level evaluation may be different from the characteristics of risk returns in fund legal documents. Investors must complete the fund to complete the risk tolerance and product risk when purchasing the fund's requirements for the fund's requirements. Matching test. The market is risky, and investment must be cautious.

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