Will the plunge of CXO concept stocks change the investment pattern of the pharmaceutical fund?

Zhongxin Jingwei, September 18th (Sun Qingyang) The pharmaceutical sector has continued to adjust recently. The net value of the pharmaceutical fund generally retracted, and even the net value of the pharmaceutical theme fund has fallen by more than 20%since the second half of the year. It is even more such as the National Investment UBS Innovation Medical, Guangfa Shanghai -Hong Kong Shenzhen Medicine, and Guangfa Medical Health Fund, which fell nearly 5%on September 13. In addition, there are still some fund managers' layout at each other. Short -term market risk aversion is heating up. Can ordinary investors' pharmaceutical stocks and funds still hold it?

Change of pharmaceutical investment changes?

According to reports, the US President Biden signed an administrative order on September 12 to launch a national biotechnology and biological manufacturing initiative to reduce the United States' dependence on foreign countries and ensure that the United States can transform all invention and creation into products to respond to China Challenge in biotechnology. Affected by relevant policies, the CXO (pharmaceutical outsourcing) track stocks of A shares and Hong Kong stocks plummeted. CXO is the track manager's concentrated heavy position in pharmaceutical stocks. Among the 295 pharmaceutical theme funds, as of September 14, only 5 funds have obtained positive income since the second half of the year.

In response to the deep reasons behind this plunge, Xie Litchi, a senior investment consultant in Jufeng Investment Consulting, believes that domestic CXO companies' performance is more from overseas markets. With the more complicated geopolitical and international relations, the prospects of domestic CXO companies have become larger. variable. The situation is difficult to move to the right track in the short term, and complexity and conflict will be the norm of future international relations.

"It is impossible to completely eliminate overseas risks." Zhao Xilong, a senior investment consultant of Jufeng Investment Consulting, emphasized that the semiconductor industry in China and the United States' economic and trade frictions is the lesson of the front car, and the same situation has occurred in biotechnology. , But only the leading enterprise is applicable. "

Xue Hongyan, deputy dean of the Star Financial Research Institute, said that the specific rules of the US policy have not been pessimistic before the previous market expectations, but after the details came out, the impact was actually not great. The sectors have begun to rise in the past two days. In the face of emergencies, it is difficult to accurately predict its time point, but from the long -term logic, in the environment of the Sino -US game, the possibility of the United States to Chinese biological manufacturing companies, especially for high -precision enterprises, requires considerate.

"Especially for biomedical related companies that depend on overseas markets, uncertainty will become an important factor for investors to consider. The valuation of such enterprises will also be affected to some extent." Xue Hongyan said.

Is the investment pattern affected by the public fund? Xie Login believes that in the second half of the year, public offerings will usher in the annual performance test. The trend of the pharmaceutical track will be greatly affected by international politics in a short period of time, and it is difficult to reverse quickly. From this perspective, it is not ruled out that the public offerings will be more oriented to blue chips, white horses and growth direction configurations that meet national industrial policies or have more valuation advantages and prospects.

Xue Hongyan feels "don't worry". He believes that as of the end of the second quarter, the investment proportion of active management funds on the pharmaceutical track is basically at a low point in nearly ten years. 'The medicine sector. " In this case, the sharpness and sharp drop of CXO have provided a good time for active management funds to lay off the pharmaceutical sector again. We must be vigilant about the new energy sector. The United States may also introduce relevant policies. The valuation of the new energy sector is much higher than that of medicine.

What other medical track opportunities are there in the future?

"From the current valuation of pharmaceutical funds, investment prospects are still relatively good. Because from the perspective of 20 years of dimension, the long -term annualized yield of the pharmaceutical sector can basically reach about 15%. The current pharmaceutical fund fund It is basically at the bottom of a cycle, so it will definitely be able to run a better level of return for a long time. "Xue Hongyan said.

"Innovative drug -related industrial chain is still a main logic of long -term medical investment." Xue Hongyan suggested that under the control of medical insurance, non -innovative drugs will be suppressed by the collection policy, which will affect the relevant sectors; and innovative drugs will be differentiated by differentiation. There will be enough growth and imagination. In particular, the introduction of the United States policy will form a stimulating role in China's local biomedical related industries. The policy will not reject some stimulus policies in the face of the innovative drug industry chain, which will have the effect of catalysting A -share related sectors.

Xie Login also said that the direction of innovative drugs is the future of medical trends, and pharmaceutical outsourcing still has great uncertainty temporarily. In addition, medical services can be considered upgrade, medical equipment and consumer medical care. Under the trend of domestic population aging and consumption upgrade, the demand for Chinese medical care will continue to grow, and medical services are still in short supply in China.

"The pharmaceutical industry is currently in the context of collection, and the profit space has dropped sharply. It takes a long time to reshape the value for a long time." Zhao Xilong said that the current pharmaceutical fund is still in a downward trend. The increase in pharmaceutical demand may attract some of the funds, so you need to wait for the time window.

What are the opportunities of the pharmaceutical sector? Xue Hongyan said that consumer traditional Chinese medicine is also a subdivided track worthy of attention. Its investment logic includes a lot of Chinese medicine products in medical insurance immune is not affected by medical insurance control; Under the trend, the Chinese people who are more and more valued by the body's conditioning, and they have the attributes of consumer goods. In addition, in the chain's leading medical service agency, ophthalmology, oral, medical beauty and other companies are also worthy of attention.

In general, for the investment opportunities of the pharmaceutical sector, Xue Hongyan suggested that the public fund investment in the pharmaceutical sector does not need to "bet" a single track alone.In the short term, although the concept of CXO is suppressed by the United States, it does not affect its fundamental logic, because the industry needs to develop a large number of population and case foundation on the one hand, and on the other handSee, China has a strong advantage.(Zhongxin Jingwei APP) This article is original by the Sino -Singapore Jingwei Research Institute, and the copyright of Zhongxin Jingwei. Without written authorization, no unit or individual may be reprinted, extract or use in other ways.

Editor in charge: Wang Lei

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