Domestic CAR-T, isn't it born?

On September 5, CAR-T concept stock Yaomingo fell 30%.

Because of the early morning, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange announced that due to the regular adjustment of the comprehensive large -scale stocks, medium -sized stock indexes, and small -scale stock indexes, three innovative pharmaceutical companies such as Yaoming Junuo were transferred out of the "Hong Kong Stock Connect" list.

"Hong Kong Stock Connect" was once synonymous with high -quality enterprises. On March 15, 2021, Yao Ming Juuo, who was listed for less than half a year, was transferred to the list. At that time, the core product of Yao Ming Junuo and the CAR-T therapy, which represents the most cutting-edge treatment methods, had been included in the first place in domestic enterprises by the State Drug Administration.

But more than a year has passed, and Car-T, which was shrouded in a halo, was not as expected.

Due to high pricing and narrow applicable surface, the evaluation of CAR-T therapy in the domestic market has always been mixed. Since 2021, Yaoming Juuo's stock price has fallen all the way, and currently only HK $ 4.55, with a market value of less than HK $ 2 billion.

In accordance with the rules of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, the target of the "Hong Kong Stock Connect" must meet the average market value at the end of the month within 12 months before the inspection. Yaoming Juuo no longer meets the standard. After being transferred, investors in the Mainland can no longer buy stocks through the "Hong Kong Stock Connect" account, and Yao Ming Juuo's transaction liquidity will be seriously affected.

In just over a year, CAR-T came from the peak.

Millions of "sky -high medicines" sell less than 100 million yuan a year

On August 30, Fosun Pharmaceutical held a semi -annual report performance meeting. Wu Yifang, chairman of the company, said: In the first half of the year, the epidemic exuded a greater impact on the entire medical sector. -T ".

2021 is the "first year of commercialization" of Chinese CAR-T products. In June and September, Fosun subsidiary Fosun Kate and Yao Ming Junuo's CAR-T therapy Akelon Sai Sai Sai Said and Rickon Said injection were listed, and the pricing was more than 1.2 million yuan.

Wu Yifang did not disclose the sales of the Aquelun Saijin injection injection this year, but in July this year, Fosun Pharmaceutical revealed that the number of patients with the accumulated treatment of Aquelun's injection has exceeded 200. Based on this, the cumulative sales of this product have been listed in the past year of about 240 million yuan.

Fosun Kate's business expansion level should be better than Yaoming Juuo. Yaoming Junuo's semi -annual report this year shows that Rukelon's income of a total of 66 million yuan, plus sales of 30.8 million yuan in 2021, in the past year, about 100 million yuan. The company's gross profit margin remained at about 35%.

Yaoming Junuo said that the epidemic affected some patients who were at the early clinical stage, and the income in the first half of the year met with previous expectations. At present, Rukelon's plug -in shooting has completed training and assessment in 83 hospitals, and has obtained qualifications. In the hospital covered, Yao Ming Juuo and Fosun Kate were comparable.

Overall, the sales scale of domestic CAR-T therapy should be less than 400 million yuan. This is largely different from the original market estimates.

According to the data of Ferrisana, China CAR-T market will exceed 5 billion yuan and 28 billion yuan in 2024 and 2030, respectively. If the forecast of Shaliwen can come true, the average annual increase of CAR-T sales in the two years after the Ming Dynasty will reach at least 350%.

In the semi -annual report, Yaoming Juuo said: China meets about 15,000 patients who meet the treatment conditions of Rukicon plug injection, and "have high willingness to treat." If it is paved at this speed, it takes about 100 years to cover all the patients in Rukelon's plugging in injection.

There may be many patients who have not been treated, but not everyone can get 1.2 million.

Is it a way out overseas?

Due to going to sea, another domestic CAR-T fate is much better.

At the end of February this year, CAR-T therapy of the legendary creature of China Stocks was approved by the US FDA, and the indications were patients with recurrence/refractory multi-myeloma. After the listing, Sidaki Olun's first quarter sales were 24 million US dollars, which was about 160 million yuan, which was better than the two other two products in the early -market.

Legendary creature chooses to attack the US market and reaches a sub -sales agreement with Johnson & Johnson. The proportion of the two parties on the income of Westyki Ourn is 50%each. It is worth mentioning that Sidakyo Olunsea is priced at $ 460,000.

According to the price calculation, there are more than 50 patients using this product in the United States in the first quarter.

Higher pricing and more patients, the US market is much "fragrant" than the Chinese market, which is why many innovative pharmaceutical companies are anxious to go to sea.

In China, the price is the biggest controversy: Zhejiang Business Securities had previously estimated that patients' actual cost of CAR-T therapy was about 1.65 times the product pricing. According to this calculation, the actual cost of the two domestic CAR-T is about 2 million yuan.

Few patients can bear such a high cost. Therefore, CAR-T's main payment channels are urban benefits and various commercial insurance: At present, Fosun Kate's Aqueln Scenes has been included in 44 provinces and cities, more than 50 commercial insurance; medicine Ming Junuo's Rukelon Injecting Line has entered 52 commercial insurance and supplementary medical insurance for 28 local governments.

Relevant insurance compensation has an upper limit.Earlier people with health industry states that the proportion of commercial insurance reports is not high.In terms of Huimin Insurance, taking Changsha Hui Civil Insurance as an example, the highest reimbursement amount is about 500,000 yuan.The "big head" cost of more than 1 million yuan still requires patients to find ways.But in the United States, CAR-T has entered people's vision since 2017, and the corresponding treatment and payment systems must be mature a lot.According to the WeChat public account "Same Warver", in the past year, Johnson & Johnson has been in contact with all large commercial insurance companies in the United States, and product promotion and medication management are much better than China.

According to Johnson & Johnson's estimation, the second year of Sidako Lenza's sales may reach $ 500 million.

And domestic companies that do CAR-T have to shop well.

It's difficult.After all, in the first half of this year, Yaoming Juuo's CAR-T only opened 77 prescriptions, 23 more than the previous year, and the company's marketing costs were 1.3 times the revenue.

Writing | Guyue

Edit ｜ Jiang Yun Jia Ting

Operation | Valley

Illustration | Visual China

#CAR-T ##-## 明 明#

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