[Transfer] Evaporate 10 billion: When a lack of money, shareholders encounter the new crown business and lose Fosun Pharmaceutical

[Transfer] Evaporate 10 billion market value one day: When the controlling shareholder who lacks money, Fosun Pharmaceuticals who have lost the new crown business

Source: amino observation

For many years, Guo Guangchang has always said that Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway has been a model for Fosun International.

After the listing of Fosun International, I acquired insurance companies everywhere, and learned Buffett's investment model with insurance floating gold. It should be said that Berkshire Hathaway's best student in China is Fosun International.

To say more accurately, "good students" should be "Fosun". Investment is the core business of each member of the "Fosun", including Fosun Pharmaceutical:

From "Da Vinci Robot" to "Car-T therapy" to "New Crown Business", Fosun Pharmaceutical has not fallen.

However, from Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai, Buffett learned that Omahabfit did not learn purely enough. While the stalls are getting bigger and bigger, the flowing funds of "Fosun" are becoming more and more nervous.

Since the beginning of this year, the "Fosun" has repeatedly reduced its holdings of A shares to return funds. Today, I have to reduce Fosun Pharmaceutical.

On September 2nd, Fosun Pharmaceutical issued an announcement that the controlling shareholder Fosun High Technology intends to reduce its holdings with a total of 3%of the total share capital, and calculates at the closing price of 40.21 yuan/share on the September 2nd. 3.2 billion yuan.

This is the first time that Fosun International has reduced its holdings of Fosun Pharmaceutical for 24 years. It is extremely rare, and further caused the market to worry about the "Fosun". On September 5th, Fosun Pharmaceutical's stock price fell in a daily limit and evaporated 10.7 billion yuan; Fosun Pharmaceutical Hong Kong stocks fell to 12.95%.

In fact, the "Fosun" may have previously rely on the new crown layout. Starting from the new MRNA vaccine, Fosun Pharmaceutical's investment vision can be called "unique".

However, Fosun Medicine just guess the right beginning, but did not guess the end.

New crown vaccine: get up early, but even the late collection did not catch up

In the field of new crown vaccines, the most successful investment is Chinese biopharmaceuticals.

With 15%of the equity investment in Kochi, Chinese biopharmaceuticals not only received more than 10 billion floating profits, but also received about 4 billion yuan in dividends.

In fact, Fosun Pharmaceutical also has the same opportunity for wealth.

As early as March 2020, Fosun Pharmaceutical signed an agreement with BIONTECH and won the commercialization of the BionTech new crown vaccine in mainland China, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan.

Afterwards, this is undoubtedly an excellent investment.

As early as November 8, 2020, the mid -term analysis of the BIONTECHMRNA vaccine has begun to show signs of success: the person who vaccinated the vaccine, and the case division between the people who received the placebo showed that 7 days after the second vaccination, the vaccine of the vaccine was 7 days after the vaccine. Efficiency reaches more than 90 %.

At the company's conference call for the next two days, Boss Guo couldn't hide his joy in words. That's right, it seems that Fosun Pharmaceutical Baobao is right.

At that time, the company predicts that the vaccine entered the Chinese market and only needed to conduct bridge experiments, and there was no need to conduct a long three -phase clinical trial. If the domestic regulatory authorities permit, after receiving the FDA approval of BN62B2, I believe it will be able to be listed in China soon.

Obviously, if everything goes well, Fosun Pharmaceutical will undoubtedly become a new crown vaccine winner. However, the greatest certainty of investment is full uncertainty.

Although the BNT162B2 was soon approved by the FDA in the second half of 2020, it achieved rapid capacity: In 2021, Pfizer's global sales of this product were US $ 36.781 billion.

But to this day, Fosun Pharmaceutical's responsible domestic area has not been approved for listing, and the company's abacus has fallen.

It seems that in the field of new crown vaccines, Fosun Pharmaceuticals can be described as early, but they did not even catch up in the evening. The global new crown vaccine has entered the Omicron era. Not long ago, the FDA has approved BionTech and Moderna's new generation of new crown vaccines. BNT162B2 has been useless.

Oral drug layout defeats and one victory, but the amount of time needs time

In addition to the new crown vaccine, Fosun Pharmaceutical's layout in the field of oral drugs is also bumpy.

Although on July 14, 2021, Fosun Pharmaceutical signed a cooperation agreement with the pioneering pharmaceutical industry to be responsible for the commercial sales of the new crown oral medication in Pukuline in India and Africa. Although the Pronamhamine has not been approved, the two sides will jointly promote the project.

According to the agreement, the pioneering pharmaceutical industry will have the right to collect less than 560 million yuan in cooperation funds, of which 110 million yuan of down payment, and milestone payment does not exceed 450 million yuan. In addition, the pioneering pharmaceutical industry has the right to collect the total profit of not less than 50%of the cooperative area as a commission.

From the perspective of the cooperation agreement, Fosun Medicine has enough sincerity, but also left a hand: after all, the down payment is only 110 million yuan, less than 30%of the total cooperation funds.

This is not surprising. Although the clinical data released by Pokruamine at the time was good, they were limited to early research and did not go through the "poison" of the third phase of the clinical clinical.

Of course, for Fosun Pharmaceutical, the most hoped is the clinical success of Puklunamine. After all, according to the global epidemic situation, a successful commercialized new crown oral medicine can benefit the company a lot.

It can only be said that investment is risky, and you need to be cautious in entering the market, especially for innovative medicines.

Pukuline disappointed Fosun Medicine. On December 27 last year, the pioneering pharmaceutical industry announced the progress of clinical trials in the third phase of patients with mild symptoms in the treatment of mild and non -hospitalized crown, and did not achieve statistical significance. Of course, in the field of new crown oral medications, Fujun Pharmaceutical is not only failed.

In July of this year, Fosun Medicine and real creatures were entered into an agreement, and the latter's Azf will be exclusively commercialized by Fosun Pharmaceutical. Azf's fixed film is the first domestic oral small molecular crown pneumonia treatment drug that has been approved to be listed.

According to the semi -annual report, Azf's settings have successively arrived in Xinjiang, Hainan, Henan and other places to help the new crown epidemic prevention and control. However, the situation of Fosun Pharmaceutical's controlling shareholder may be more severe than the situation of the epidemic.

The scale of liabilities is 651.1 billion yuan, Fosun International can't wait

For a long time, the valuation of overseas markets for China's financial groups is generally not high. No way, who told our socialist financial institutions so smart. In the entire capital market, there are not many investors who can understand the "Fosun".

Although Fosun International has always expressed "no shortage of money", his body has been selling it honestly.

Since the beginning of this year, the "Fosun" in the A -share market has reduced its holdings of over 7 billion yuan, and a new round of fixed increase has been launched in July, with a total amount of funds raised 4.484 billion yuan.

Although the "Fosun" has returned to the cage of over 10 billion yuan, debt pressure still looks small.

As of the end of the first half of 2022, Fosun International's total assets were 849.685 billion yuan, of which the liabilities were 6511.56 billion yuan, and the asset -liability ratio was 76.6%, which was climbed from 74.8%at the end of last year.

On June 15 this year, Moody's internationally renowned rating agency Moody's included Fosun International on a negative observation list and lowered its rating from BA3 to B1. The logic was:

The heating up of investors in the public bond market will cause Fosun International's tight liquidity to pressure, and in the next 6-12 months, its domestic and overseas debt expires in a large scale.

For the controlling shareholder's encounter, Fosun Pharmaceuticals can be described as inadequate and insufficient. In the first half of this year, the company's net profit was 1.547 billion yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 37.67%.

As of the end of June, although the company's cash assets on the company exceeded 14.5 billion, the short -term borrowing was as high as 13 billion yuan. Obviously, for Fosun Pharmaceutical, it is difficult to help the controlling shareholder.

In this case, the controlling shareholder Fosun High Technology can only deal with debt issues at the cost of "first reduction in 24 years".

Originally, the new crown business may be the life -saving straw of "Fosun". It can only be said that it is made to make people.

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