[Transfer] Hengrui vs Reg by Ding: Two answers to "survive" in innovation medicine

[Transfer] Hengrui vs Reg by Ding: Two answers to "survive" in innovation medicine

Source: Deep Blue View/Old Dream

On August 19, 2022, the eldest brother Hengrui Medicine officially disclosed his transcript in the first half of the year. Except for new products that have reached a new high R & D investment and pipelines, it is difficult for Hengrui's fans to find some highlights worth coming out. Sighs.

Traditional generic drugs are severely damaged, and the volume of innovative drugs is not as expected, which is the main reason to create the worst financial report in Hengrui's history.

The eight generic drugs that entered the fifth batch of mixed mining decreased by 1.76 billion (-88%) year-on-year, and the generic drug business fell cliffs; affected by the epidemic, anesthesia, angiography and other "offline" business declined by nearly 30%; more importantly, more importantly In this way, the company's innovation business declined due to the price of medical insurance negotiations, the superpower volume was less than expected, the growth rate slowed down, and even the "individual innovative drugs" declined from the previous month. This is not a good sign for a traditional pharmaceutical company that shouted for many years.

Hengrui, this company has previously been subject to the company of countless latecomers- "Although we are not as good as Hengrui, our pipelines and sales systems are also increasingly catching up." Today, everyone discusses "Hengrui what is Hengrui what is Hengrui? Will it come out of the transformed mud? "

On the contrary, these former "benchmarks", now on the way from zero to one, the volume of various innovative products is very calm.

It is also the mid-reporting season. Fuhong Hanlin's CD20 has a small growth rate but a stable volume. PD-1 sales contributed about 77 million yuan a quarter, but Her2 sold 800 million at once, and the performance was obvious. 1 This year's Q2 volume is obvious, BTK has just finished the head -up experiment, and the global revenue has doubled in a single quarter; the revenue of Ding Pharmaceuticals reached 94.9 million US dollars (66.37%) There is a decline, but the volume of PARP inhibitors, one of the core products, has a significant volume, an increase of 76.9%year -on -year;

Biotech only looks at revenue, without financial pressure, and barefoot is really not afraid of wearing shoes.

Among them, Ding Ding is actually quite representative: it is not as good as the three places as Baiji, raising high, and not like Fu Hong Hanlin. There are group support behind them. What a specific track is different is that the re -pipeline is more comprehensive and the sales system is more comprehensive.

Although the revenue data of Ding Ding is very dazzling, in contrast, its financial data, innovative pharmaceutical companies quoted the proud "research and development expenditure" column, but the growth was negative -the time to take the initiative to reduce research and development in the industry's cold winter Expenditure to ensure better cash flow. Hengrui is in turn: optimizing sales, continuing to increase innovation, Hengrui wants to pick up his own dominance in the product.

Therefore, the ice and fire of Hengrui and Zhending Innovation Pharmaceuticals are more about the consideration of the "commercialization system construction" of two different pharmaceutical companies. Whether it is "insurance R & D" or "sale", behind it is the choice of survival strategies for the downward period of the industry.

Dingdan's method

Although the core goal of the commercialization of innovative pharmaceutical companies without performance pressure is to sell the sales volume, the sales volume also requires skills, not only as simple as the "sales rate of more than 100".

The sales of medicines are inseparable from two factors, one is access and the other is promotion.

Admission means tickets, from the provincial level, to the municipal level to the hospital level. Before the production certificate landed, it was the department of GA/PA in various pharmaceutical companies to run and drink. Promoting is nothing more than smashing people's costs. Compared with traditional enterprises, innovative pharmaceutical companies have a slightly lower profit pressure and costs can be more. Behind this is the channel system.

Once this system presents a certain scale, it is a huge Cost Center for pharmaceutical companies. For the boss, every day when you open your eyes, hundreds of thousands of people will pay, just like a huge one. The golden beast needs to feed them products, and then let them produce more returns.

What the R & D and transformation department does is to ensure that this "golden beast" has new products every day to be fed, and the sales department must ensure the reasonable and healthy growth of this golden beast. It is also a science to manage a sales team of thousands of people.

Ding Ding's response method is to dig directly from the company that knows the "system construction". It chose Astraikon, a foreign pharmaceutical company with "most understanding China".

In June 2018, Liang Yi, the former vice president of Astrikang and the head of the tumor business department, announced that he joined the Ding Ding, and became the second largest transnational pharmaceutical company background after Wu Xiaobin left Pfizer. Since then, Liang Yi has pulled many former colleagues.

Also absorbing "Astrikang's sales talents" is also Baiji. In December last year, Yin Min, the general manager of the Astrian Tumor Division of Baiji Shenzhou, will join the following year as the chief business officer of Greater China. There are more people from Astraikon to Baiji, so that some people in the industry voic: "Astrikan's sales staff is going to be at the Baiji Divine Division."

In the past two years, Astraiko has been under expectation that the two core products (three generations, PD-L1) have not been expected. The overall medical growth rate has declined. A series of turmoil appeared in the internal team. Previously Finding a new room for play in the pursuit of speed. Both Cinda and Junshi are looking for Roche, who focuses on tumors. Liu Min joined Cinda in 2019, and by the way, he brought a group of Roche's old sales; the dealer found in the early days of Junshi also began to build his own team. Qian Wei joined Junshi to join late and left early. After half a year, after all, there are some system sales.

Transnational pharmaceutical companies delivered R & D talents ten years ago and transported sales talents ten years later. Transnational pharmaceutical companies are the veritable Huangpu Military Academy in China.

These innovative pharmaceutical companies are "swallowing beasts" and they are just growing slowly from a infant and young child. The consumption is not too large. Once the product power is not enough, the scale and expenditure can be controlled in time. As for Hengrui, the scale of "swallowing the golden beast" itself is huge. This is a balance between them relying on the way of turning into zero. The newly fed product competition was very tired, and the golden beast began to fight back the company.

In fact, it is not only Hengrui, but Hengrui's neighbor Zheng Da Tianqing. In the first year of listing in Arotinib, it won 2 billion. That was because the non -small cell lung cancer field was not as many drugs for antibrokers. Count. The PD-1 that is now represented by Kangfang, the same team, has just sold 500 million in a year. The feedback to the company itself is another bad innovation business growth.

The commercialization of innovation drugs

Everyone now shouts that the life is not good, but there are new drugs before China's innovative drug supervision and payment reform. Compared with the past, even if the policy is tightened, the commercialization of innovative drugs does have a significant acceleration.

Photo: Commercial changes in innovative drugs: Tianfeng Certificate

The Medical Insurance Bureau brought price suppression, but the Medical Insurance Bureau did bring the penetration rate. An obvious case was that the domestic PD-1 of the medical insurance was obviously much faster than the imported PD-1 of the medical insurance. Even though K drugs have basically reduced annual expenses to the same level as domestic as domestic as the same level.

Nowadays, there are many forms of commercialization: self -employment, associates, agents, livense out ...

Especially in the past two years, from Baiji to Cinda, from heaven to Rongchang, from Gakos to Legend, and even the innovative drug business owned by old pharmaceutical companies such as Colom and Stone Medicine, they have made a large scale License Out transaction. This is a improvement of China's R & D capacity steps.

However, License Out is not the ultimate goal pursued by innovative pharmaceutical companies, and eventually requires their own mature channels to move towards the five continents. License Out is a discount on future cash flow, and it is a discount after "discount". It has been folded, what are the support for the valuation of the innovative medicine? R & D capabilities are sufficient, and the access and sales capabilities within the scope of globalization also need to keep up slowly.

However, after all, China's innovative pharmaceutical companies cannot grow directly from zero to a world -class pharmaceutical company. License Out is a way to go. After selling things, there will be a confidence to buy things in the future.

In addition, License Out is also a means to reduce risks and shrink the foot. Of course, when it comes to "innovative pharmaceutical companies should go to License Out", it always gives people a feeling of "why am I not going to Tsinghua" -Many pharmaceutical companies will argue: don't want to, no.

In fact, it is more about the valuation of innovative drugs. In the past, the future cash flow was discounted, and the algorithm of billions of billions of billions of tens of billions should be changed. In the new period, there should be models and valuations in the new period. In addition, the idea of ​​the License OUT object has also changed, and there is no need to demand high foreign companies.

The cash flow is the most important in the winter.

If the valuation is still not found after the valuation is discounted, CSO should stand up and carry the pot ...

In addition, the current market competition in the new drug field is basically inseparable from price war competition. However, there are actually many ways to play in the field of pharmaceutical sales, such as subdivision adaptive expansion (ALK inhibitor finds ROS1 and C-MET logo), such as improvement of dosage forms (Abercap reduces the number of injections than the number of injections than the thunder bead monocidal), and for example, for example, for example, for example, for example, for example, for example Brand/Positioning this set of marketing things (the concept of blood sugar after meals).

These cases that have achieved huge success in commercialization have not been copied to the current field of local innovation drugs, and few people even mention cases in this area. The commercialization of Chinese innovative medicines is still in a early stage.

When this group of entrepreneurs returned to China in 2012, they copied to China with the US pharmaceutical market model, but the units of the market size were replaced from the US dollar to RMB (ie 7 times the difference), but the per capita medical GDP of China and the United States Poor, far more than 7 times ($ 9667 VS 5399 yuan). On the one hand, the situation of "innovative medicines has no future" is due to the decline in the heavy breeds in the early stage, and on the other hand, it is a difference from the original prediction of the United States.

Policy correction and industry cold winter

As one of the leaders of the innovative pharmaceutical industry, a lot of things they do are actually exploring the road for the latter, such as the incident of breaking the arms in the industry.

The semi-annual report shows that Zai Ding Pharmaceutical stopped the research and development of the CDC7 inhibitor ZL-2309 this year, and at the same time, it also reduced its internal development priority of the CD47 inhibitor ZL-1201. The data shows that its R & D expenditure has decreased by 65.34%year -on -year. Contrary to the practices of more than many companies with R & D expenditure as the highlights in the past two years, this pioneer who once led the License In model is now cutting research and development costs.

The same is the latecomer of the latecom.

In 2019, Genting Xinyu obtained the Asian market rights from Immunomedics (later acquired by Geelyd) for $ 835 million. In less than three years, the original was given to Immunomedics. Although there is a premium of 300 million US dollars in low buying and high sales, it lacks the support of heavy product. The company's market value also needs to call a question mark.

According to the company's explanation, the core of this sale is that the core is that the company's cash flow is tense. In fact, in addition to BIOTECH, the elder brother Hengrui, the elder brother of broken arm.

Although Hengrui's R & D expenses this year are still rising, Hengrui disclosed a message at the recent performance exchange meeting: As the ADC DS-8201 data of ADC DS-8201 is too good, Hengrui stopped the HER2 target pihochtar. Part of the overseas clinical. Overseas investment is not as good as domestic, and this requires courage and determination.

The premise of breaking the arm is that the broken arm can really survive. In fact, the goal of the policy is not to let everyone die.

The development of the industry is like a train full of heavy objects. In the past, due to the promotion of capital and policies, the train ran forward crazy, so that it was bumpy and crumbling. The policy is pressed by the brake keys, but under the inertia, the risk of derailment of the train is still there for a while and a half of the behemoth under the inertia.

So, you can only pull the brakes and remove various assistance systems at the same time. Finally, the train slows down. But because the brakes were too fierce, the car stopped gradually, and there were even signs of retrogression on a slope.

At this time, the policy was promoted again: the approval of this section slightly liberated the use of the super indications of some tumor drugs; the new regulations of the medical insurance negotiations simplified the renewal rules, and gave a gentle price adjustment range. Even before the high -ranking DRGS policy, recently "exploring the payment model outside the innovative drug DRG".

Although these "loosening" policies seem to be insignificant in front of the stagnant trains, as long as the train does not run, there will be more and more new promotion and fiercer. The reason is also very simple: the requirements in the "Fourteenth Five -Year Plan" plan are written on the table, and the specific indicators of the healthy China 2030 are also hanging on the official website of various ministries and commissions. These indicators do not rely on shouting slogans, clothing and shrinking food. Below the investment of real gold and silver.

Therefore, the policy has always been a process of correction. It has always tried to find a balance between letting go and tightening to ensure that this train can run forward and upward at a constant speed and stable. But in fact, the medical industry around the world does not seem to have found this balance, so this industry has always been in a spiral development.

However, regardless of whether the industry is going up or down, the aging rate of population is increasing, and the needs of patients are becoming more.

Back to Hengrui, the stagnation of innovative drug business is not to say that Hengrui's several innovative indications have not been played, and more means that Hengrui's past company's large -scale bag sales model is only applicable to R & D product dominance. For strong scenes, once everyone returns to the same starting line, the competitiveness will be revealed.

In fact, Hengrui is indeed "optimized". Sales personnel reduced by 2,300 in half a year, which was about 1/5 compared to the beginning of the year. The sales costs also cut 14 billion yuan, a decrease of 30%. In this way, the efficiency of single -person output has indeed improved a lot.

And again, this time I chose to squeeze the cost of the R & D end, and to the construction of limited cash to the construction system -whether it is year -on -year or month -on -month, sales and management costs have increased. Compared with Hengrui, which has a mature channel system, from scratch, you need to use your long board to make up for a short board.

Ding Ding and Hengrui are seeking better survival in the winter. In fact, not only these two, the seemingly "no shortage of money", in the past few years, there have been a bottle of reagents and several departments. The industry has a uplink and downlink cycle, and in the downlink period, it is victory.

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