Nuohui Health: Explosion is difficult to stop bleeding, and the track causes doubts

On August 19, Nuohui Health announced its 2022 mid -term performance report.

Financial report data shows:

As of the first half of June 30, 2022, revenue was 225 million yuan, an increase of 413.7%year -on -year; gross profit was 185 million yuan, a year -on -year increase of about 649.7%, and the gross profit margin was 82%, a year -on -year increase of about 25 percentage; After the adjustment of net loss was 106 million yuan, the loss was 97.1 million yuan in the same period last year.

The announcement states that income growth is mainly due to the income and gross profit of Chang Weiqing and the increase in gross profit, as well as the launch of a new product in January 2022.

As far as Chang Weiqing is concerned, the revenue in the first half of the year was 73.6 million yuan; the revenue of the pipe tube was 68.5 million yuan; the Hermiac pylori testing product of the Hermiax Pipe in January was 83.5 million yuan.

On August 19, the Hong Kong stock market closed, and Nuohui's health stock price fell 0.43%, the closing price was HK $ 22.90, and the market value was 9.8 billion yuan. As the "first share of cancer", Nuohui's health stock price was close to HK $ 90, but after the market returned to rationality, he was currently hovering around HK $ 20.

Nuohui Health was established in 2015 and focused on the early screening business of cancer. The two under intestinal cancer screening products (Chang Weiqing and Tuan) have been approved by the State Drug Administration and officially commercialized. The gidelines that were listed early this year, three products supported the entire revenue.

On the surface, due to the listing of Youyou pipes, Nuohui's health has improved greatly in performance, and the prospect of the early screening market for cancer is also good. However, after careful analysis of the current market status, it is not difficult to find that Nuohui health is in channels, marketing, marketing, and marketing, marketing, marketing, marketing, marketing, marketing, marketing, marketing, marketing, marketing, marketing, marketing, marketing, marketing, marketing, marketing, marketing, marketing, marketing, marketing, and marketing, marketing, marketing, and marketing, marketing, marketing, and marketing, marketing, marketing, and marketing, marketing, and marketing, marketing, marketing, marketing, and marketing, marketing, marketing, marketing, marketing, marketing, There are still big problems in market education and cost control.

PART.1

New explosive products can't stop losing money

Looking back at the development of Nuohui's healthy development, although it has only been established for only 7 years, it has already had certain influence and R & D strength in the field of cancer early screening.

At present, Nuohui has launched two commercial products Focusing on Early S screening of intestinal cancer Chang Weiqing and Puppet Tube, and the newly listed Helicobacter pylori self -testing product in 2022. Cervical cancer testing products are clear and liver cancer testing product is in the registered experiment and the post -development stage, respectively.

Judging from the newly released mid -term report, Nuohui's three listings have formed a three -legged situation, and even the revenue of the Youyou Tube that has just been listed has exceeded the other two.

The rapid development of the cancer early screening industry undoubtedly allows this only player to take off, but this does not mean that Nuohui's health can not worry.

Judging from the previously released financial reports, Nuohui Health has always been in a state of losing money.

In 2021, the net loss was 3.086 billion yuan, the net loss was 3.9 times in 2020, which was 13.7 times in 2019. It was 29.1 times in 2018. The total losses in the past four years have reached 4.205 billion yuan (International Financial Report Guidelines) Essence

In 2022, the channels developed well, the gross profit margin of the product gradually increased, and the high -profile product Youyou pipe was also successfully listed, but it still did not turn losses to profit. In the first half of 2022, the net loss reached 106 million yuan, and the net loss of the international financial reporting standards also reached 65.3 million yuan.

Such a huge loss is directly related to its huge investment in market sales and administrative end in recent years.

The financial report in 2021 shows that Nuo Hui has completed the access and sales of more than 400 hospitals last year; as of June 30, 2022, it has entered more than 800 public hospitals, private hospitals, and clinics.

Regarding the commercial layout of 2022, CEO Zhu Yeqing said that Nuohui's health will still adhere to a diversified commercial strategy. "First of all, we will vigorously promote the application of price in the country, hoping to enter more than 1,000 hospitals by the end of this year."

However, long -term investment in the market has not brought optimistic results.

According to the financial report, Nuohui Health's revenue in 2021 was 213 million yuan, a year -on -year increase of 201.5%, while sales and market expenses reached 271 million yuan, an increase of 316.7%year -on -year; these two data in 2020 were 7.056 million yuan, respectively. 65.12 million yuan; by 2022, the market sales end expenditure has not decreased, and revenue and expenses were 225 million yuan and 194 million yuan, respectively.

Such sales output ratios are too low, and it can even be said to be ease.

In terms of administrative expenditures, from 2020 to 2022, 76.95 million yuan, 109 million yuan, and 51.7 million yuan were respectively. Public data shows that the co -founder and CEO Zhu Yeqing and the chief scientist Chen Yiyou have an annual salary of more than 10 million.

In the case of marketing costs and administrative expenses occupying the company's cost head, continuing losses naturally become a commonplace.

It is worthy of recognition that Nuohui Health expanded the spread in the doctors through the sales team. The doctor then transferred the product from the clinical guide to the clinical path, and then to the habit of opening a order. And gross profit margin.

Now Nuohui's healthy marketing system has been formed, and it can be summarized to buy sales revenue with money. However, the sales costs have been high for a long time. Even if the sales entrance remains rising, it is difficult to turn losses in a short time.

Cancer early screening is a very special market. Compared with related treatment areas, it is still in the blue ocean stage and the potential space is huge.

According to the data released by the China Anti -Cancer Association, taking colonoscopy as an example, as high as 120 million people who need to do colonoscopy each year, but the proportion of colonoscopy is only about 5%, and the screened crowd of fecal dumplings colorectal cancer screening crowd The penetration rate was 15.10%, and colonoscopy and genetic testing penetration rates were 1.30%and 0.03%, respectively. The overall pylori infection of pylori in China reached 40-60%, which means that there are nearly 500 million people in the stock market.

The huge blue ocean market undoubtedly increases the possibility of Nuohui's future growth, but whether it can be grasped depends on the education level of Nuohui Health on the market.

PART.2

Bet the "early screen" buried dark thunder?

Nuohui's healthy business is rooted in serious medical care, but the external image is getting closer to consumer goods companies. Zhu Yeqing also said that cancer early screening products have dual attributes of serious medical and consumer goods.

Nuo Hui has been through a lot of marketing costs to break through the market, attract clinicians, channel partners and consumers' attention, establishing its own brand effect, and ultimately realizing business value.

However, the difference between the two is that consumer goods companies have burned money mainly to compete with the market with competition, but Nuohui health has almost no opponent, mainly to educate the market.

And it should be noted that Nuo Hui's path is a new road whether it is domestic or overseas. Previously mentioned direct competitors in the prospectus, Epigenomics Ag and Exact Sciences Corporation. Both products belong to the prescriptions of the courtyard. There are similar products overseas, but there is no similar market environment and business model.

Therefore, this means that Nuohui will face the problem of the education market alone, and how the final result is still unknown.

First of all, a realistic problem that market education needs to face is that in the field of colon cancer early screening, more domestic markets use more technologies for colonoscopy and FOBT/FIT technology. The penetration rate of the two has reached 14.9%. The multi -target FITDNA technology adopted by Chang Weiqing is about 0.01%in the medical field. This also means that its clinical value is not obvious.

In addition, even if the clinical value of Chang Wei can meet the corresponding needs, its market pricing has no advantages compared to products with similar functions in the market.

The price of ordinary colonoscopy in the conventional triple hospital in my country is about 500 ~ 600 yuan, and the price of painless colonoscopy is about twice the ordinary colonoscopy, about 1,000 yuan, and the medical insurance pays for it, which further weakens Chang Weiqing's competition in price in price. Force; although the difference in the detection of Helicobacter pylori is not large to the triple hospital, the hospital testing is more advantageous in authority and accuracy.

Therefore, in terms of channels, Nuohui Health needs to carry out large -cost promotion, especially the construction of medical examination channels and clinical channels. However, some people in the industry said, "These investment to hospitals and testing institutions can be exchanged for Nuohui's right to speak in the industry, but in a short period of time, the company's profitability cannot be increased."

Secondly, another problem is that Nuohui's early screen concept is frequently questioned.

Prior to Chang Weiqing, the MIR-92A detection kits of Jinbaihui creatures, SDC2 gene methylized detection kits of Kangliming creatures were approved to be listed, but all of them were used for the auxiliary diagnosis of bowel cancer. Essence

And Nuohui's "early screening" is a more special label. Whether it is the first certificate of the "Early Sieve" or "the first share of the early sieve", Nuo Hui's health does not hesitate to promote the concept of early screening.

Under the influence of advertising, the public can easily confuse screening and auxiliary diagnosis.

In fact, in the National Drug Administration's technical review report on Chang Weiqing, it was not clearly defined under the concept of "early screen" of Chang Weiqing. It just said: "This product cannot be used for tumor screening of ordinary people. It cannot replace colonoscopy and is used to screen for high -risk people with poor colon cancer with poor colonoscopy."

The above -mentioned industry people believe that this means that Chang Weiqing's use cannot be equated with the "early screen". It is obviously the concept of stealing the concept of stealing. "

It cannot be denied that the promotion of "early screening" is overwhelming, and ordinary people who are not suitable for groups are inevitably misleading. This high -profile publicity is also conducive to grabbing policy dividends and pushing products suitable for high -risk groups to the general public to obtain a larger market. But for non -high -risk people, do you really need these early screening products?

Li Zhizhong, the founder of Jade Children's Cancer Public Welfare Foundation, mentioned in the article "We are part -time rumors, others are full -time pseudo -science" that cancer is a condition that a person will grow with age, so it will almost inevitably occur, so so The significance of screening is pale and weak. And its value may be at most to enhance people's awareness of anti -cancer and extend life.

For young groups, even more, cancer is always a probability and one inevitable result. It may be difficult to use a screening to solve the screening and prevent the problem of prevention.

In other words, the role of Nuohui's early screening of healthy cancer may be excessively magnified by officials and media. Because according to Li Zhizhong's theory, there are only two kinds of results to screen cancer, either the probability of not being detected by age is 0, or the age has been diagnosed when the age is detected, and there is almost no preventive significance. Therefore, if Nuohui's healthy sieve has long been promoted in the past, in the end, it is a pseudo -concept that can't stand the feet, then its huge investment in the education market may take the bamboo basket to water.

PART.3

At the end

At present, in addition to the three products that have been listed and sold, there are two pipelines in the annual report -cervical cancer and liver cancer screening products, but their financial reports also clearly stated that there is still a period of time before it can be listed and sold. And there is a possibility of failure.

This means that it can only rely on the slow growth of the inside, which must not meet the capital demand, and it is difficult to get the long -term optimism of capital. The market value is a good proof of less than 10 billion yuan.

Nuohui Health's current strategy is to bind an innovative early screening enterprise with a few equity investment (IVD enterprises with a high probability of obtaining certificates), including the biological database of $ 6 million to purchase EpiGenomics AG (European competitors), and 3 million Swiss francs invested in the Swiss ProteOmeDix company, and then helped it commercialize it in China. The rhythm arrangement of commercialization is more controllable, and it also provides bullets for Nuohui's subsequent growth.

This method is similar to Fosun Medicine, but Nuohui Health is more focused on IVD companies.

In general, although the track of Nuohui's health layout is in the blue ocean market, huge investment in market education is destined to be difficult to profit in the short term, and whether its core products have core competitiveness. The current controversy is relatively large. Whether it has become the potential of Fosun in the IVD field is worthy of long -term attention.

This article comes from: new knowledge of science and technology, authors: Wang Siyuan, editor: Yi page

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