[Transfer] Genting Xinyao "returned" to Geely, a net profit of 330 million US dollars?

Source: Siqi Club/Cantaloupe

On August 16, Genting Xinyao returned Trodelvy's exclusive rights in the development and commercialization of Greater China, South Korea, and some Southeast Asian countries to the wholly -owned subsidiary of Geely, which caused a huge response in the pharmaceutical industry and the capital market.

To this end, Genting Xinyao will receive a total of US $ 455 million in consideration, including US $ 280 million and a potential milestone payment of US $ 175 million in the future.

Although 50%of the advance payment requires Genting Xinyao to get the data of related clinical trials in TRODELVY, in general, the problem is not big. And more importantly, Genting Xinyao will no longer need to pay the remaining $ 710 million milestone. It is expected that in the future, Genting Xinyao will get up to $ 455 million in revenue at most, equivalent to RMB 3.07 billion.

Without calculating clinical costs, the net profit of 330 million US dollars on Genting paper, and the development cost of the middle should be rich. According to Genting Xinyao, it can bring a 3.6 times return.

Before grabbing Geelyd

TRODELVY is a star TROP-2 antibody drugs (ADC), which was first developed by Immunomedics.

In 2019, Genting Xinyao obtained the Asian market rights from TRODELVY, from Immunomedics, from Immunomedics, including US $ 65 million, $ 60 million FDA approved milestone amount, and a milestone of the milestone of $ 710 million.

At that time, the development of ADC drugs was not hot. At the same time, the three -negative breast cancer (TNBC) targeted by Goshbukab is about 15%of breast cancer cases. That is to say, although TNBC is the most malignant breast cancer, the TNBC market space is limited. In response to the market prospects of Trop-2 targets, Genting Xinyao introduced TRODELVY, which has always been considered a "gambling" by the market.

Facts have proved that Genting Xinyao is "gambling". The molecular targeted drugs with TROP-2 as the target have gradually become a major in the tumor field, and the layout of many pharmaceutical companies is carried out around ADC. In 2020, Gillar acquired Immunomedics at a price of $ 21 billion, and it was Trodelvy. Although Geely spent huge sums of money, the exclusive rights and interests of China, South Korea and some Southeast Asian countries still belong to Genting New Yao.

At that time, TRODELVY was still trying to use Her+/HER2-breast cancer, urinary epithelial cancer, non-small cell lung cancer, and first-line treatment of three yin breast cancer. TRODELVY is also considered the core variety in the Genting Xinyao R & D pipeline. In April 2020, TRODELVY was listed in the United States to treat patients with MTNBC. It is the world's first approved TROP-2 ADC. In 2021, TRODELVY sales were $ 380 million.

On June 7 this year, Trodelvy of Genting also successfully passed the approval of the China State Drug Administration, becoming the first domestic Trop-2 ADC drug.

At present, companies that have Trop-2 ADC include Kelly Pharmaceuticals, Junshi Biological, Belle Pharmaceutical, Beltai, Astraikon/ASliko/first and third clinical experimental projects. As the first Trop-2 ADC, which was the first clinical, was once considered to be the most potential pharmaceutical company, but it took the initiative to terminate research and development due to changes in the market structure.

TRODELVY "opponent" like clouds

TRODELVY stood out from a crowd of competitors, and the prospects of commercialization were highly anticipated. However, TRODELVY was approved for less than three months, but Genting Xinyao chose "cutting meat". This decision may be related to DS-8201, a star product DS-8201, the first and third Republic.

At this year's ASCO conference, the first and third Republic Asti Kang announced the results of the third phase of clinical trials of the drug ENHERTU (DS-8201). The third phase of clinical experiments redefined HER2 low-expression breast cancer treatment paradigm. Data show that DS-8201 can improve patients' non-progressive survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS), respectively, 8.5 months, 18.2 months, respectively, far surpassed Trodelvy's 5.5 months and 13 months.

In the US market, on August 5th, the FDA approved ENHERTU four months before the deadline of the Prescription Drug User Cost Act (PDUFA) to treat patients with low -expression breast cancer. DS-8201 and TRODELVY have a overlapping patient, and the pressure given by DS-8201 has given Trodelvy.

Astraikon/The Enheretu of the first three communities is a strong opponent of Trodelvy on the Trop-2 ADC track, but it is not the only opponent. According to incomplete statistics, the main competitors of the TROP-2 ADC track include Coronbo's SKB-264 (Phase II Clinical), DAC-002 (Phase I Clinical) of Junshi/Duoxi.

From the perspective of the same target ADC product, according to the Insight database, 20 Trop-2 ADCs in the world are developing. In the future, the pressure of R & D and commercial competition for Trop-2 ADC tracks can be imagined. Concentrate to expand the new pipeline

Although TRODELVY has the leading advantage of the market, the market air outlet is likely to be fleeting. Genting's Xinyao's sales team is still in the early stage. The number of people is only 128. As a Biotech who has just came out of the product, it is difficult to build a powerful commercial team in a short time.

In the cold winter of biopharmaceuticals, Genting Xinyao's cash assets reached 2.640 billion yuan as of the end of 2021, but the net outflow of operating cash flow was 730 million yuan. In other words, if the commercialization may not be completed, the money will be burned first. What's more, after the commercialization of TRODELVY, it is necessary to give Geilide a 14%-20%sales sharing according to product sales.

If you cannot grab the DS-8201 landing in the domestic market, and quickly roll out the commercialization of Trodelvy, then Genting Xinyao sells it to "recover one stroke", which is the best option.

In response to TRODELVY's transaction termination, Genting Xinyao is expected to obtain a capital of about 30.67 billion yuan to spend Biotech's capital cold winter. In the announcement, the company stated that the subsequent funds would be concentrated in other pipelines, of which 30%will be used for business development activities with the same business as the company's main business and expand drug pipelines. 15%will be used to develop NEFECON. In other parts, 10%are used to enhance discovery capabilities, 10%as operating funds and general administrative purposes.

According to data, there are 14 new drug pipelines involved in the development of Genting New Yao. Among them, Elahuanin has submitted a listing application in China. Another five products are under Phase III development. Nefecon is also expected to be listed in the second half of the year.

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