[Transfer] 3.2 billion in three years, revealing the most powerful "pour" in 18A

Source: amino observation/Fang Taozhi

Innovative medicine does not make money? Sorry, it may be that you can't play. Look at how the 18A's most "pouring grandfather" Genting Xinyao played for innovative medicines.

In 2019, Genting Xinyao obtained the exclusive rights of Trop-2 ADC drug Trodelvy's exclusive rights and interests from Immunomedics.

It is the imagination space brought by Trop-2 ADC that Genting Xinyao completed the Hong Kong stock IPO plan and officially became a listed company.

However, after two years of listing, Genting Xinyao "repaid" Trodelvy's rights and interests to Immunomedics.

Between buying and selling, Genting Xinyao can be described as a lot of benefits: the highest return can reach 330 million US dollars, which is more than 2 billion yuan, which is 3.6 times the first payment and milestone.

Not only that, this business also makes Genting's newly -controlled actual controller "by the way" has a company with a market value of 4 billion Hong Kong dollars with a net worth of 1.5 billion yuan.

It seems that behind Trodelvyv's sale, a win -win ending is achieved. However, some people are injured, that is, investors:

From the listing to August 15 this year, Genting's stock price fell 69.35%. Today, after the announcement of refunding Trodelvyv's announcement, Genting Xinyao's stock price fell 19.10%again.

/ 01 /

How is the best "pouring grandfather"?

When Genting Xinyao bought TRODELVY in 2019, it may not be able to do the business of "reversing" in the future.

The time returned to April 2019. At this time, Genting Xinyao won the rights and interests of Trodelvy from Immunomedics with a milestone of $ 65 million+$ 770 million.

At the time, Genting's Xinyao vision was "poisonous." At that time, DS-8201 had not yet revealed his fists, and ADC was not as hot as it is today.

In addition, February 2019 FDA just rejected Trodelvy's listing of listing because of crafts. In this case, Genting Xinyao still chose to buy Trodelvy.

Afterwards, this is an extremely successful introduction. In September 2020, Geely announced the acquisition of Immunomedics at a price of US $ 21 billion, and it was Trodelvy.

Although Geely spent huge sums of money, the exclusive rights and interests of China, South Korea and some Southeast Asian countries still belong to Genting New Yao.

Subsequently, Genting New Yao Trodelvy's research and development also went smoothly. In June of this year, TRODELVY was successfully approved in China to be used for adult patients with at least two systematic treatment that had been treated at least two systematic treatment in the past, becoming the first Trop-2 ADC in China to be approved in China.

Theoretically, the next story should be Genting Xinyao continued to commercialize TRODELVY and successfully leap in Biopharma.

But reality is always more exciting than imagined. Two months after the success of TRODELVY, the sudden emergence after two months:

Today (August 16), Genting Xinyao and Geely's subsidiary IMMUNOMEDICS signed an agreement to return the exclusive power of Trodelvy's commercialization to Immunomedics.

/ 02 /

Genting New Yao's self -rescue road

You may have such doubts when you see here. Trogelvy's research and development is smooth and smooth. Why did Genting Xinyao suddenly sell this tumor industry?

The answer is that Genting Xinyao didn't have much choice.

In China, TRODELVY approved the indication of Sanyin breast cancer. Earlier, TRODELVY can be said to be dominant in the field of Sanyin breast cancer. But now, a strong opponent is ready to go, and it is possible to seize Trodelvy's market share at any time. This opponent is DS-8201.

The star products of the first three Communist Party DS-8201 swept the entire breast cancer field with the trend of destruction, and the field of Sanyin breast cancer was no exception.

At this year's ASCO conference, HER2 ADC drug DS-8201 announced the results of the third phase of clinical trials called Destiny-Breast04. Even for HER2 low expression patients, DS-8201 is still effective.

In the HER2 low expression group of DS-8201, it also contains patients with Sanyin breast cancer. This also means that DS-8201 and TRODELVY have the overlapping patients, and DS-8201 will more or less erode part of Trodelvy's market share.

In the United States, the pressure given by DS-8201 has been given Trodelvy. On August 5th, DS-8201 was approved for listing in the United States' new indications for the treatment of patients with HER low-expression breast cancer. In the future, DS-8201 landing in China is only a matter of time.

In this case, Genting Xinyao must quickly roll out the commercialization of TRODELVY. Before DS-8201 logs in to China, try its best to squeeze the market value of Trodelvy.

However, this is not easy. As a BIOTECH, which has just been released, the construction of the newly -peeing team of Genting has just begun. As of the end of 2021, Genting Xinyao was used for sales expenses of 198 million yuan, and the commercial team was only 128. So, is you starting to burn money to commercialize the road, for Genting Xinyao?

The answer may be negative. After all, at the cold winter of biopharmaceuticals, Genting's Xinyao's hand is not rich: although cash assets have reached 2.64 billion yuan at the end of 2021, the net outflow of operating cash flow was 730 million yuan.

In other words, if the commercialization may not be completed, the money will be burned first. What's more, after the commercialization of TRODELVY, it is necessary to give Geilide's 14-20%sales sharing according to product sales.

In this case, return Trodelvy's part of the equity to Geely, so that professional people do professional things, and they can make a lot of money.

Under weighing, Genting Xinyao's current approach is undoubtedly the most reasonable.

/ 03 /

It looks like a lot of money but not bought by the market

It seems that it is not a loss to buy and sell Genting.

According to the agreement, Genting Xinyao will receive a total amount of US $ 455 million, including prepaid payments of US $ 280 million and a potential milestone in the future of US $ 175 million.

Although 50%of the prepaid payment also requires Genting Xinyao to get it in TRODELVY after reaching the relevant clinical trials, the probability is high in general.

More importantly, Genting Xinyao will no longer need to pay a milestone of the remaining $ 710 million. In the future, Genting Xinyao can get a maximum of $ 4.55 million, equivalent to RMB 3.07 billion.

Without calculating clinical costs, the New Yao of Genting between one and one sale can "earn" 330 million US dollars, which is equivalent to about 2.2 billion yuan. According to Genting Xinyao, it can bring a 3.6 times return.

In three years, 2.2 billion yuan and 3.6 times the return, it seems that the business of "reversing" is much faster than selling innovative medicines.

However, it seems that the capital market does not buy this "reversal" business of Genting. As of the closing, Genting's new Yao stock price fell 19.1%, and the market value evaporated at HK $ 969 million in HK $ 4.099 billion.

The response of the capital market is not surprising. After all, TRODELVY has always been the core product in the field of New Yao's tumor in Genting. Previously, Hua'an Securities had predicted that Trodelvy's sales peak could reach 3.352 billion yuan.

Today, Genting Xinyao sold pillar products at 3.067 billion yuan. Genting Xinyao's future expectations are greatly reduced, and it is not surprising that investors vote with their feet.

/ 04 /

Losted his face and earned Li Zi?

Of course, in terms of return rationality, although Genting Xinyao's operation lost his face and failed to stabilize the stock price, it also stabilized "Lizi".

After all, in the cold winter of biopharmaceuticals, lack of money is a common portrayal of Biotech, and Genting Xinyao is no exception. As mentioned above, Genting Xinyao is not strong.

And this transaction can undoubtedly temporarily relieve the capital pressure of Genting. For Genting Xinyao, it is still possible to continue to strengthen the pipeline in the future.

At present, the two products closest to the list of New Yao pipelines are NEFECON and XERAVA, the closest to the market.

Among them, NEFECON is a orally targeted Building Needa Smooth Capsule introduced by Genting. It is the first treatment drug approved by FDA to reduce proteinuria in patients with IgA nephropathy.

Nefecon is currently undergoing clinical studies in China, and it is expected to be listed in China in 2023. According to the forecast of Hua'an Securities, in the case of insufficient Igan treatment methods in China, NEFECON sales revenue from 2023 to 2025 will be 287 million yuan, 531 million yuan, and 963 million yuan, respectively.

The new antibiotics XERAVA is expected to be listed in China in 2022. It is expected that the sales revenue will be 1.11, 449 to 840 million from 2022 to 2024.

Although compared with TRODELVY, the imagination space of these products can only be regarded as a small witch. However, the Genting New Yao, which holds cash, stays in the mountains, and is not afraid of the burning of firewood. As long as it can support the darkest, the opportunity will still exist in the future.

In fact, the pharmaceutical companies that are no longer in the past are not just Genting Xinyao. In the face of the cold winter of biopharmaceuticals, many pharmaceutical companies have begun to put down their faces to cut off their arms for various means such as cutting pipelines, layoffs, selling assets, and selling drug rights.

After all, although poetry and distance are beautiful, the most important thing is to spend the time. And this will also become the survival of pharmaceutical companies in the cold winter.

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