[Transfer] Can't sell the new crown vaccine?

[Transfer] Can't sell the new crown vaccine?

Source: Sai Bailan/Mu Zhi

01

New crown vaccine leader performance "thunder"

On the whole, the new crown vaccine has gradually converted from "supply in short supply" to "excess output".

Recently, Kangtai Biological has released a preview of performance. It is expected to achieve 1.828 billion yuan in operating income in the semi-annual 2022 year, a year-on-year increase of 73.72%; net profit is 100 million to 130 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 61.37%-70.29%.

From the perspective of the impairment of assets in the performance forecast, the sales of the Kangtai biological new crown vaccine are cold or the main reasons for the significant shrinkage of the performance.

It is reported that Kangtai Bio has cast a re -bet in the field of new crown vaccines. Data show that Kangtai Biological R & D investment was 738 million yuan in 2021, an increase of 170%year -on -year, accounting for 20.22%of the revenue, mainly due to the large amount of clinical R & D investment in the third phase of the new crown and active vaccine, of which the capitalization rate was 52.03% Essence In July 2021, the enterprise completed a fund -raising of 2 billion yuan in the issuance of convertible bonds, and all invested in the new crown vaccine project.

According to Kangtai Biological reports, the book value of the initial inventory of the enterprise was 437 million yuan, of which 205 million yuan was inventory products, but by the end of 2021, the value of corporate inventory has increased to 1.058 billion yuan. 466 million yuan.

A pharmaceutical industry researcher told the author: "From the analysis of the inventory ratio of Kangtai Bio, the company is likely to have a very optimistic attitude towards the sales of the vaccine, but from the results, it is obviously lost."

02

Once glorious

Under the global epidemic of new crown pneumonia, the new crown vaccine is considered the best prevention method.

2021 is the first year of commercialization of the new crown vaccine. From rapid research and development, rapid approval to rapid and large -scale commercialization, this progress is also unique in the history of global pharmaceutical medicine. Whether it is Pfizer, Johnson & Johnson and other industrial giants, and innovative companies such as China Kexing, Kangshino and other innovative companies have obtained better benefits in the process.

Pfizer's 2021 financial report shows that the second quarter revenue was US $ 18.98 billion, an increase of 92%year -on -year, exceeding the market expectations of US $ 18.79 billion; 99 cents. According to statistics, the new crown vaccine is expected to bring Pfizer's $ 33.5 billion in revenue this year, and it is expected to become one of the best -selling drugs in Pfizer's history.

Domestic new crown vaccine companies also missed this opportunity.

According to Kangxino's financial report, in the first half of 2021, Kangsino achieved operating income of 2 billion to 2.2 billion yuan, an increase of 49,532.59%to 54,495.85%year-on-year. It is estimated that in the first half of 2021, the net profit attributable to the owner of the parent company was 900 million yuan to 1.05 billion yuan, an increase of 1 billion yuan to 11.15 billion yuan compared with the same period last year. It is reported that Kangxino had previously lost for ten consecutive years, and this time, he finally achieved a profitability with the successful listing of the new crown vaccine.

However, there are no feasts in the world. No track will always make money. With the improvement of global vaccination and penetration, the current situation of "over -supply" market has also begun to show, leaving the space left to vaccine companies has become smaller and smaller.

03

The era of "lying down" is over, and it will be eliminated without thinking about changing

The forecast data of Airfinity LTD. Company shows that the output of global vaccines in 2022 may exceed 9 billion, but by 2023 and after, vaccine demand may fall to approximately 2.2 billion to 4.4 billion doses per year.

Rosenstein, a special medical consultant in Eurasia Group in New York, said: "Although many countries are still promoting vaccination and enhanced needles, the supply of vaccines in many places in the world still exceed demand." He predicts that unless the epidemic has changed significantly, it is now tomorrow and Ming Ming. The two -year vaccine output will gradually decrease.

It can be seen that the era of new crown vaccine companies "can make money" has become a complete past.

In 2021, the exports of Chinese vaccines exceeded 100 billion yuan, and they were prosperous. By January to May of this year, with the increase in global penetration, the export volume of China's new crown vaccine was only 4.89 billion yuan, a decrease of 79.2%from the same period last year, and cliffs plummeted.

In this context, Kangtai Bio is "recognized", but it is definitely not the last. As the competition of the new crown vaccine track is becoming more and more intense, vaccine companies must think about changes to keep their existing position.

The unpredictable mutant strains are the biggest problems encountered by humans at present, which means that the enhanced needle for mutant strains has also become the biggest opportunity for new crown vaccine companies.

On July 4th, Koxing Bio announced that it officially launched a clinical trial of the new crown virus in the "Omikon" mutant of "Omikon" in Hong Kong. Or the healthy adults of the MRNA vaccine to evaluate the use of healthy adults to use the vaccine as the safety and immunization of immunization.

According to Kexing Bio, it obtained the mutant strain samples of "Omikon" as early as December 2021, and then began to actively promote the preparation of the second -generation active vaccine. Pre -clinical trials of animal models showed that vaccines were safe and effective.

However, the strategy of strengthening the needle acupuncture also has a very high cost risk. A doctor of virus told the author: "No clinical and laboratory data shows that Omikon is the end of the mutation of the new crown virus. Capability, then the reinforcement needle of enterprises will lose a considerable proportion of market value. "There are also some vaccine companies put their horizons into overseas markets.

According to Kexing's 2021 report, the company's annual sales reached 19.4 billion US dollars, net profit reached $ 14.5 billion, and sales in the second half of 2021 were $ 8.4 billion and net profit was $ 5.9 billion.

As of now, the Koxing New Crown Vaccine has provided over 2.8 billion doses worldwide. According to statistics, the sales of nearly half of the Koxing New Crown Vaccine in 2021 came from international markets outside China.

However, the "overseas strategy" also needs to consider the "time point" problem.

From the perspective of the global market, countries with strong payment capabilities have basically completed the main vaccination of the new crown vaccine before 2022. As of June 20 this year, 66.3%of the world's population has completed at least 1 dose of new crown vaccine, and the vaccination rate of Cuba, Chile, Singapore and other countries has exceeded 90%.

A pharmaceutical industry researcher told the author: "The production capacity of the new crown vaccine is a worldwide problem. It is too ideal to solve the predicament by expanding overseas sales. If there is a malicious price war, it will not lose."

However, vaccine companies do not need to be too pessimistic. The barbaric "wealth of wealth" may not be reproduced, but the new crown vaccine still has great development potential. For example: MRNA vaccine, poisoning live vaccine, and nasal injection new crown vaccines, making these products can arouse some market demand.

The "dividend period" can not be found, and there may not be such a good situation in the future. But as long as the product itself has innovation and differences, it will inevitably get enough benefits.

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