With the withdrawal of the file, do you have a chance after 1/3 of the summer stalls?

On the last day of June, the film market ushered in changes again. Several films such as "Sky Rescue" and "Learning Dad", which were scheduled to be released on July 8th, were withdrawn.

"The summer stall is so empty, why do you still have to withdraw it!" In the comment area of ​​a big Weibo movie big V, many netizens who are concerned about the film industry are questioned. As for the reason for the collective withdrawal, many practitioners told the poisonous eyes because these films have not received the "Movie Screening License".

This is not the last bad news from June. Professional version of the lighthouse shows that the broader market closed at 1.918 billion (including service fees) in June, and the number of viewers was only 52.849 million, which was the lowest value since the statistics of data. At the end of June last year, the poisonous eyes proposed in the article that the box office of 2.1 billion and 59.74 million viewers of the month was the worst performance of the same period of history. Essence

The degree of decline in the box office is not as large as the number of viewers. It is more dependent on the average fare of 36.3 yuan in June. This is the highest point of the same period of the same period of the year. If there is no support for high fares, the data on the large market of June, which lost nearly 7 million viewers year -on -year, will be even more fierce -the epidemic has been three years, and the audience still fails to find the enthusiasm of actively embrace the movie theater in the summer.

In the traditional sense, the statistics of the summer stalls include 6, 7, and 8 months. From the current results, it is clear that one -third of the summer file has lost. If such a result is inevitable under the influence of disadvantaged factors such as the epidemic situation, the suspension of the theater, and the decrease of the new film, then the remaining two months left in the summer season is crucial.

The release of a large number of new films is the only opportunity for the summer stall to turn the tide in the next time. Due to the large capacity and long line of summer stalls, the former summer stalls are very vast for new films. The withdrawal of many films in early July undoubtedly covered a layer of black clouds on the hopes of the hopes of the reverse wind turning around the summer.

Helpless "the lowest history"

Another lowest in June was born, almost expected.

After the Spring Festival, many cities across the country were repeatedly affected by the epidemic, and the film market was also severely damaged. The Top Professional Edition shows that the box office of first -tier cities in June fell from 343 million in the same period last year to 206 million. The total box office of the movie box office in Shanghai was less than 17 million, while in 2021, an ordinary March Shanghai had 137 million box office contributions.

In addition, including Beijing and Northeast China, many cities across the country have gone through a long period of "no home" state in the first half of the year. After a long time, under these unfavorable conditions, the performance of the movie is inevitable.

The stopping of theater and industry under the epidemic intuitively affects the release of the film -the number of new films is small, which is the most obvious phenomenon in June. In the last June of last year, the professional version of the lighthouse showed that there were still 62 films, but this number this year dropped directly to 29.

"Under the influence of objective factors, some new films have no chance to be released, and some are evacuated for market income returns. No matter what reason, it is understandable." Some practitioners said to the poisonous eyes that in June, in June The reduction of new films is reasonable. However, after the epidemic was gradually controlled, without the film was released, the audience still did not enter the motion of the cinema. The broader market was worse. There were more new films that could be released, and the vicious cycle was formed.

In the film that has been released in June, the best performance of domestic films is "Life Event" released in late June. The monthly box office reached 497 million (including service fees), although the monthly box office champion "Jurassic World 3 3 》 Over 800 million strong performance, but it is already the highest box office domestic film in June in history.

The introduction of films did not play a role in "rescue the market". Compared with the strength of domestic films in July and August in the past few years, June is often a good time to belong Entering statistics) In the top 5 films in the box office in June, the number of outer films was 4. In June 2017, there was even no domestic film in the top 7 films in the box office.

In contrast, the performance of the domestic film "Life" in June is still worthy of recognition.

The performance of "Life" and "Jurassic World 3" in June proves that the audience's demand for movies still exists. "The audience does not want to watch movies at all. Good movies must have a chance." Some practitioners said to poisonous eyes. But unfortunately, there are too few new films that can drive the audience to enter the theater.

Therefore, the dismal of the market in June is just the continuation of the decline in the first half of the year. The end of the minimum box office and the end of the movie viewers in the same period is a helpless inevitable. With the improvement of objective conditions, the real test of the summer season is just now just now. start.

The summer stall that cannot be abandoned

The summer stall is not formed by pulling consumption by the atmosphere of the holidays. Compared with other festivals consumption periods, the former's natural advantage is the large number of young audiences who are willing to consume film consumption, long schedules, and large capacity. The probability is also very high.

In 2014, at the beginning of data statistics, the box office during the schedule was only 9 billion (excluding service fees), and 2015 and 16 years were also maintained at more than 12.4 billion. Summer "War Wolf 2" was born, and won 5.5 billion box office in one fell swoop, accounting for 33.7%of the total box office. This year's summer season set a new record of 16.35 billion (including service fee), which was 31.4%year -on -year in the previous year. The gain. In the following two years, thanks to explosion models such as "I'm Not a Medicine God" and "Nezha", the box office continued to climb more than 17 billion. After that, the concept and high expectations of the summer season have to be amplified. Many practitioners have told the poisonous eyes that the head film company will lay out important films in the summer to fight for high box office revenue.

The value of the summer stall is not difficult to understand. First of all, the schedule is large enough to accommodate the next 5 billion super explosive model, and the medium -volume film can also be divided into a cup; second, the front is long enough, and the film has sufficient time to release the box office at the box office. Get ability; not only that, this schedule is not picking the film, action movies, realistic theme films, animation movies, visual effects blockbusters, etc., types, subject matter and style of various films have opportunities. The admission fee, the cost of the small and medium -sized volume films is not so high, and the risk of fighting is affordable.

Therefore, even if the number of movie viewers is no longer able to move, the summer stalls are still promising. After all, the existing people watching movies in the summer are relatively fixed. They have a fixed movie viewing habit and are the base of the summer season.

But after the epidemic, the power of this period has not been displayed. The total box office of the 2022 summer stall decreased by more than 10 billion compared with the same period in 2019, and the number of viewers was only 2 billion, a decrease of more than 300 million compared with the same period of 2019. It is nearly 200 million yuan, and the presence of summer stalls is particularly low.

Is the downturn in the market in June mean that the overall situation of the summer file has been set? We can only hope that the answer is no.

At the beginning of the summer of 2019, "Bayai" and "Little Wish" and other high -heat films were retired in succession, poured a pot of cold water for the schedule, and the Hollywood blockbuster "X -Men: Black Phoenix" did not continue the previous work. The high mouth and popularity, the industry was also worried about the summer stall, but "Nezha" was born in the air, using the strong performance of 4.7 billion box office during the schedule to make the summer stall "return to life"; 》 There is no withdrawal, and that summer will still have a super explosion -the second half of the force is the norm of summer stalls.

Therefore, for this year's summer season, the first thing that needs to be super explosive is the advent. Looking back at the summer stall in 17-19 years, you can find some rules:

In the summer season of 2017, "War Wolf 2" swept the major theaters across the country, created 5.5 billion box office, forming a wave of viewing of the "All -Nations War Wolf", "Transformers 5" released on June 23 It also got a box office of 1.5 billion during the schedule, and the box office of "Stealing Daddy 3" also exceeded 1 billion;

On July 5, 2018, "I'm Not a Medicine God" was released. The box office in the summer was 3. billion, and the 2.5 billion "West Rainbow City Richest" and 1.69 billion "Jurassic World 2" and 1.3 billion were released. "A Good Show";

In 2019, there are "Nezha" with a box office of 4.7 billion in the summer season, as well as "Heroes of Fire", "Spider -Man: Heroes Expedition", "Sweeping 2 Days and Earth Duel", "Speed ​​and Passion: Special Action" 4 box office over 1 billion box office over 1 billion Film--

A super -explosive + multiple performances that perform well can form a summer film market of about 17 billion.

Super explosive models can not only push high -end box office, but also ignite the audience's enthusiasm for movie viewing. Other films also have the opportunity to eat schedules. A glorious and damage between the head films of the summer stall and the waist film are all loser: less explosive models, the broader market is deserted, the film dare not set the file, the audience is reduced, and the schedule has been sluggish. The phenomenon level, the entire period is difficult to have beautiful box office results.

However, if the film is actively or passive, there will never be a miracle in the summer. Looking forward to the new film, I hope to save the city, the key nodes of the schedule are coming, and the new film is also time to play lightly.

After half a year, the market needs good films

Judging from the current box office data, it is basically impossible to return to the event of about 17 billion box office before the epidemic. However, to level 7.381 billion in the same period last year, I hope there are still: 1-2 phenomenal films and a number of stable medium volume films, you can make up more than 5 billion "holes".

But the market value of summer stalls should never be only 7 billion. In the long run, the total box office of the film market in the first half of the year was 17.2 billion yuan, which was less than 10 billion compared with the 27.57 billion yuan in the same period last year. Compared with the 31.313 billion in the first half of 2019 in the epidemic, it fell 45%. In the first half of this year, there were only 398 million people, and last year, the number was 682 million -the film market in the first half of the year can be summarized with "waste".

In order to exceed 47 billion last year's box office this year, the market needs to create at least 30 billion box office in the second half of the year. That is to say, whether it can reverse the trend of the box office of the film market for two consecutive years since the 2020 epidemic. I hope All in the second half of the year. After July and August, in addition to the National Day file, there is no big period, September and November are the box office depression throughout the year, so the remaining two -thirds of the summer stalls can no longer be deserted. In the past, it affects the box office results of this year.

There are already movies to prepare to fight. The professional version of the lighthouse shows that the new film "Detective War" on July 8 has exceeded 150,000 people who want to see the number of people. The crime and action types have its fixed audience, and the box office will be relatively stable. The new film "Mozart of Outer Space" currently has more than 140,000 people who want to watch. As a fantasy comedy film, the audience is relatively large and has the opportunity to impact the high box office.

However, for the need for large types, multiple types such as action, comedy, and animation to enrich the selection of audiences and make big cakes together, the number of new films is not enough. If you want to consider it positive and optimistic, the slump may be temporary.

After all, more than 170 days after the film market stopped in 2020, as soon as "Eight Bai" appeared, the audience was quickly pulled back to the cinema. In October, the National Day stall also got a good result of nearly 4 billion; In June of this year, on the third day of "Life", the film box office achieved a decline in a single day, which was more than 5 million higher than the 83.915 million the previous day. It is still rising every day, and it is currently stabilizing more than 60 million.

It can be seen that as long as there is a good supply of films, the alienation of the audience and the cinema is not completely unchanged. The new film is more good, and the audience's trust and enthusiasm for the film will not be disappointed.

However, who can become a big explosion of the current haze is still difficult to conclude. However, it is certain that as mentioned above, in the summer, if you want to get a good box office performance, you must have a super explosive model and more than one billion videos. The more potential, the greater the probability of the birth of explosive models. The film market in the second half of the year will have the opportunity to come back to the wind.

It has passed in June, and the good news of the resumed opening of the theater in Shanghai on July 8th, and the operating rate of the national cinema will also be in the same level; the audience is also concerned about the arrival of more new films -for the state of downturn, For the film market, these are good news.

Summer is very long, there are still opportunities to belong to movies, and the film market is also time to revive the constraint.

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