Why is critical thinking important?

Every day, we will contact a lot of information, choose to believe in some of them, and based on this to determine our own behavior. Critical thinking can provide guidance for faith (what believes) and actions (what should be done). To put it bluntly, to choose what to believe and decide what to do. Because large and small beliefs and actions have shaped our life trajectory, training critical thinking is particularly important. Otherwise, we will be blinded by words, rumors, intimidation, rumors, and teasing by rumors. What is more sad is to become the host and spread these false or bad things.

Written article | Li Qingchao (Shandong Normal University)

Critical thinking is important

There are many concepts of "Critical Thinking". Here we quote Robert H. Ennis's statement: Critical thinking is positive and skilled, and will be collected or generated from observation, experience, reflection, reasoning or exchanges. Information about the intellectual training process of conceptualization, application, analysis, comprehensiveness, and evaluation. As a recognized skill that is recognized by the international educational community and the necessary skills necessary for creating and reasonable decision -making, it is one of the basic abilities that citizens should have like reading and writing. Critical thinking skills are a necessary universal thinking skills required by multiple fields, which can improve human language and expression ability, promote creativity, and conducive to self -reflection. Further, good critical thinking is the basis of science and democracy.

Figure: The report released by the 2016 World Economic Forum lists critical thinking as the second important employment skills. The first is the ability to deal with complex problems, and the third is creativity.

The process of critical thinking is thinking about the thinking process. This ability or habit requires training to obtain. "Really? I feel I have it." If you think life is calm and everyone is rational, then you can go to see social news. Every ridiculous partner has a set of "strict" its own logic, and the logic of TA is as full of holes as the basket. Even in the eyes of outsiders, it is directly "rushing" without any logic at all.

The word "ridiculous" gives people a rare and rare illusion. In fact, rationality is really precious. Most of our decisions we make may only depend on instincts and habits, driven by good evil and experience, and then use barren evidence.

causation

Causation is the relationship between an event (cause) that causes another event (fruit). Knowing causality deeply can help people understand the laws of the world, so that the conditions required to create good results are made in the direction that is conducive to people; eliminating the factors that cause bad results, avoiding things from developing in unfavorable directions Essence Therefore, causality is the theory that people tend to establish and use this as a basis.

Although in reality, there are generally complicated situations such as multiple causes, one effect, far -long cause, far -end effects, and ancient causes, and people are more inclined to understand the direct, dominant cause and effects that can be transformed by people- —— All disturbances seem to be rooted in life selection of life, so what, can not learn to destroy hegemony.

After this!

When understanding causal relationships, the most commonly used and intuitive observation standards are the causes and results that have occurred at the same time. However, it is important to emphasize here that the relationship between the two incidents and effects of the existence or the same time occurs at the same time; however, the time relationship that occurs at the same time does not mean that there must be a causal relationship. Taking the relationship between the relationship between smoking and lung cancer, we understand the research process of causality.

Lung cancer is the top type of cancer in the current incidence and mortality. In 2020, 2.2 million patients suffering from lung cancer worldwide, 1.8 million patients with death lung cancer [1]. In fact, lung cancer was once a rare disease. In the autopsy conducted by the Institute of Pathology of the University of Dresden in 1878, lung cancer accounted for only about 1%of malignant tumors. However, in the next decades, the proportion of lung cancer rose to more than 14%. Franz Müller at Cologne Hospital keenly noticed that most cancer patients have the habit of smoking. He counted the changes in the per capita cigarette consumption and the incidence of lung cancer, and compared 86 cases of lung cancer cases. A similar number of cancer -free control groups indicate that smoking people are more likely to suffer from lung cancer. Mueller's research was published in 1939 and determined the correlation between tobacco tobacco and lung cancer [2].

Figure: The relationship between the per capita cigarette consumption of the United States from 1900 and 2000 and the change in the number of lung cancer per 100,000 people. Note that the changes between the two are high, but there are more than 20 years between the peak arrival time. [3]

But because of it?

Correlation is the relationship between phenomena, things, numbers, or statistical variables. This relationship is a common relationship that cannot be explained by the non -random or accidentality. The existence of correlation does not directly prove that there is a causal relationship between the two. It only describes the non -random co -change relationship between the two, indicating that there may be causal relationship between the two. However, because of the correlation, the classic logic error of "after that, because it is because of this": just because of the occurrence of one after another, it is considered a causal relationship.至于说相关性的两个事件是否存在特定的因果关系，需要排除以下情况：1. 反向因果关系：有因果关系，但是因果关系认识错误，即你所认为的因实际上是果，而你The fruits are actually cause.

The medieval Europeans believe that lice are good for people's health because patients rarely have lice. There is a correlation between lice and human health, but the causal relationship between the two is wrong. The real reason is that lice are extremely sensitive to body temperature. When the patient is sick and fever, the lice leave the patient to find another host.

2. The third factor leads to the common variable: also known as the third factor fallacy. In other words, there is no causal relationship between the two related events, and they are caused by changes in the third factor, so the common relationship occurs.

In 1999, a research results reported in Nature Magazine, indicating that infants and young children who drove on the lights were more likely to have myopia in the future. This study caused great interest in people. However, the subsequent research found that the real situation is that parents with myopia are more likely to take care of infants and young children under the condition of opening the lights, and children of myopia parents are more likely to suffer from myopia. In other words, the two related factors of opening lamp sleep and children's myopia are two results caused by myopia parents.

3. Two -way causality: Cause and effect is not necessarily one -way.

For example, the number of predators and predators has a common relationship, and their quantity changes are causal, not simply fixed who is the cause and who is the fruit.

4. Pure coincidence: Time is long enough, the world is enough, and there are enough records. It can always find several groups that support specific correlations, but in fact, there is no causal relationship between them.

According to studies, Russian leaders appeared alternately by bald-non-bald-baldness. This phenomenon can be traced back to Nicholas I in the early 19th century until today's Putin Emperor. Keke, is there any more than Russian jokes?

Picture: Russian leader bald-the alternation of the baldness is the phenomenon [4]

"Related" "road to promotion"

The correlation between the two events is one of the causes that prompt people to tap their causality. However, the correlation is rising to causal relationships to meet some necessary conditions, or to conduct necessary research:

Cause and effect is consistent: the same causes lead to the same results. Causal theory has repeated tests and predictability: Cause and effect can be tested and confirmed by experiments, and the event can be predicted to the event with causality. This is the inevitable result caused by consistency. Cause and effect theory does not conflict with the existing recognized facts or theory. If conflict with the existing theory, a reasonable explanation must be made. Causal theory should avoid unnecessary assumptions and unnecessary complexity. After checking the above factors, and proposing causal assumptions that meet the requirements, you can carefully design the experiment to confirm the causal relationship. In the study of smoking caused lung cancer, scientific researchers confirmed through various research methods and data that smoking and second -hand smoke are indeed the primary factor that caused lung cancer. Smoke smoke contains at least 73 known carcinogenic substances (second -hand smoke has not passed through high temperature Burning and filtering filtration, which is more dangerous).

Figure: The risk of lung cancer death is closely related to smoking 丨 Source: wiki

"Coincident" breaks "cause and effect"

Therefore, the cause and effect relationship is not supported by some correlation data, let alone a few random or accidental coincidence events, or individual cases, or just listening to conclusions. If you rely on individual coincidental events and even incidents in other people's mouths, you will commit two classic logical fallacy:

By partiality, wearing overview: too small or prejudice sampling to draw conclusions. "The neighbors of Pharaoh next door are the boy who eats this medicine."

Congratulations to the public, resort to the public: think that "everyone believes" is true. "Everyone is going to stock up, you don't hurry up."

Compared with the causal relationship disguised by "correlation", the coincidental incident is more ridiculous to launch the cause and effect, but it is more common: people are easily moved by vivid and close examples, no matter how rare this example is. Charles Ponz is an Italian -American speculator. He fabricated an investment project of Zifu and promised investors to get 40%of the profit return in three months. This return rate is unreasonable or unsustainable, but Poz pays the money of new investors as a fast profit for the initial investment. This unreasonable, rare, but catering to the return of people's fantasy overnight fantasy played a great demonstration role, and seduced more people to be deceived. This is the famous Ponzi scam. Here, the early investment that people see is related to profit, but the reason why the initial profit is profitable is the bait released by scammers. In order to attract more people to invest, not people imagine or Ponzi scheme claims. Investment Bring high returns. In other words, using the "case" or "correlation" of the initial high return to infer the "causal relationship" that must have high returns in investment, which is one of the reasons for bloody. Conclusion

It seems that "coincidence", "correlation", and "cause and effect" are not just the number of words increase in order! From the perceptual understanding of a single or minority event, to the analysis and statistics of a large number of cases, to the verification of causality to design experiments, and the establishment of causality requires meticulous and tedious work. In scientific research, a theory is proposed, and it is proved through experiments that a large, rich and rigorous experimental data and logical reasoning process is required; in court, guilty identification and innocence defense requires a lot of evidence and testimony , Careful consideration of legal provisions; during the investment process, during the work process, and even in the daily life of everyone, especially when making decisions, we need to collect rich and accurate information and make a clear judgment. And reflect on the process of thinking. The training of these critical thinking is not exerted overnight and on the spot. It needs to be trained in daily learning and life. This training can be reflected in your reading and in the process of brushing small videos. And judgment is reflected in each of your messages.

Reference

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/lung_cancer

[2] https://www.open.edu/openlearn/mod/oucontent/view.php?id=20669 §ion=4

[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/lung_cancer

[4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/bald%E2%80%93Hairy

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