The Institute of Marine Observation and Forecast Technology of Hohai University has made new progress in the rapid changes in tropical cyclones

Recently, the Institute of Marine Observation and Forecasting Technology of Hohai University has made new progress in the rapid changes in tropical cyclones. The study proposed a new concept of rapid growth (Rapid Growth) The important role also puts forward new topics and challenges for the trend of tropical cyclones in the context of global warming.相关成果以《Rapid Growth of Outer Size of Tropical Cyclones: A New Perspective on Their Destructive Potential》为题，发表在美国地球物理学会（AGU）旗下杂志《Geophysical Research Letters》上，并被AGU选为亮点文章。

Tropical cyclone is one of the most destructive natural disasters, and the Northwest Pacific Ocean where my country is located is the most concentrated area of ​​the global tropical cyclone. There are as many as 9.3 tropical cyclones that are attacked by our country each year, causing a large number of casualties and casualties and casualties. Economic losses.

Traditionally, the destructiveness and grade of tropical cyclones are only defined by its maximum wind speed, and the rapid increase of the maximum wind speed, that is, rapid enhancement, has also received widespread attention from scientific research and business units. However, a series of studies in recent years have shown that the destruction of tropical cyclones is not only determined by its maximum wind speed, and the size of the wind circle is also very important. For example, Katrina and Sandy are three -level tropical cyclones at the time of landing, and they are not very strong at the wind speed, but their huge wind circulation has led to the record of the storm and increase of the record of records and increases. Water and other disasters have brought huge losses.

In this study, the marine observation and forecast technology research team proposed a new concept of Rapid Growth. By analyzing the tropical cyclone observation data of the North Atlantic for nearly 17 years, the use of isolation forest machine learning algorithms will define rapid growth as 34 (17m/s, eight -level wind) wind ring radius increased at least 75km in 24 hours. This standard is equivalent to the top 10%of all tropical cyclones.

Analysis shows that 88%of large -sized tropical cyclones (> 400km) have gone through the process of rapid growth, and 9 of the 11 tropical cyclones with the largest destructive power have gone through rapid growth, and only 5 have experienced rapid enhancement. Further analysis also shows that the rapidly growing tropical cyclone has a clearer life cycle change, and environmental factors such as inclined pressure and low -level dry air invasion have played an important role in it.

The first author of the paper is the post -doctoral Li Yi of the college. The author is Professor Tang Youmin, and the collaborator is Dr. Wang Shuai, the University of Princeton. The study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42006036, 42130409) and the funding support for fundamental scientific research business fees (B210202141) in the central university.

According to reports, the Director of Marine Observation and Forecasting Technology of the Ocean Academy has been engaged in research work such as sea gas -volume observation technology, marine power and ecological environment remote sensing observation technology, coupling data, marine prediction and assembly forecast. A series of innovative results, independently developed an integrated system from observation, data assimilation to sea gas environment collection forecast, promoted the development of international Shanghai Observation and Forecasting Technology research. In order to improve the level of forecasting, ensure the national economic construction and national defense security Provides scientific and technological support. (Correspondent: Zhang Chunping, Hohai University)

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