The horn of "precise blow" to China?

The United States is planning to severely sanction Russia's tricks to China.

The latest report of the New York Times quoted US officials to disclose that the Bayeng government intends to use the "experience" of prohibiting advanced technology and equipment exports to Russia, expand export control to China, and "accurately strike" China’s in China. Military and technological progress.

U.S. officials showed strongly this time, and the timing is quite worth pondering.

Just tomorrow, Wang Yi, a Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister, will meet with US Secretary of State Brills during the G20 Foreign Minister's meeting in Bali. This will continue the rhythm of "frequent" interaction between China and the United States since last month. At the same time, the US media extensively predicts that Biden will announce the reduction of some tariffs imposed on China this month.

Why did the US government suddenly release the smoke bomb through the media at this time? Can the "preview" of export sanctions on Russia really be used in China? How should China deal with it?

01

In the report of the New York Times on the 5th, the "former and current officials" that revealed the information to the outside world tried to give these "research and proposition" export control measures more "new ideas".

Obviously, it is aware that export control of China has long been existing, and they emphasize that new measures will be a "upgrade and expansion" version.

Expansion, including relaxation of the scope of export control in China, at the same time strive to participate in more allies and partners; which technologies must be "redefined" will be considered sensitive or key, and may be used by military and security agencies.

The reference standard for judgment and definition is said to have been updated: no longer pay attention to the use of related technologies in the traditional military field, but also consider the role of Chinese enterprises in the construction of national security infrastructure, Xinjiang and other places.

Describing it, in fact, the interference in "national security" and "human rights" suppress the rhetoric of other countries.

Compared with Russia, export control to China will be more "accurate" in addition to expanding.

Do not spread the net, but more targetedly "restriction in China to gain technology that helps to promote its own military and scientific and technological progress." American officials said that their goals were "not weakened to a wider Chinese economy." The continuous provocation of trade war technology warfare to China has been repeatedly damaged by themselves, making them more and more to fight themselves in advance.

In the export control of the extension and precise China, quantum computing, cutting -edge chips, and artificial intelligence may be included in control.

In fact, it is unexpected to copy the "curb Russian experience" to China. Some senior officials in the United States have not expressed similar ideas recently.

At a policy conference in Washington last week, US Secretary of Commerce Raymond claimed that export control was "in the core position that best protects American democracy."

She said that under severe sanctions, many other semiconductors exported to Russia have decreased by 90%, and the operating capabilities of business fleets in Russia will also be severely reduced. While claiming that export control "has a huge impact on Russia", Raymondo has not forgotten to go to China, saying that China is paying close attention to these reactions in the United States.

Earlier, Allen Estviz, who was in charge of the Ministry of Commerce Industry and Security (BIS), even directly aimed at China directly.

At a event at the "New American Security Center" in the US think tank, the director publicly stated that "the relationship between China has become more important through export control management." He also did not hide the purpose of this to ensure that the United States maintains its technological advantages and prevent China from "constructing the ability to deal with us or neighboring countries in any type of conflict."

Regardless of the promotion in advance or "research and planning", the US export control over the United States has long been not new: on June 28, the US Department of Defense has just included five Chinese companies on the grounds of "suspected support for Russian military and defense industry". Trade blacklist.

A Bloomberg's news today also "replenished" the reporter of the New York Times, saying that according to sources, the US government is preparing to further restrict the export of Dutch semiconductor manufacturing giant ASML to China.

Prior to this, Acemi had been unable to provide the most advanced EUV lithography machine to China because of the US ban. Now Washington wants to expand the scope of the ban to the older DUV lithography machine to further dimly diminish the prospect of the development of the Chinese chip industry.

In the latest report of the New York Times, in fact, before that, the Bayeng government had followed the previous government's approach to use export control as a means to deal with Chinese enterprises, and it was more intensive and "doubled" directly.

Military use and "infringement of human rights" have long been used as an excuse.

02

The US plan to expand export control to China, the time for this news is "interesting".

Originally, the most concerned point in the current Bynden government's policy agenda was when it and how to reduce tariffs on China. The US media Politico reports that Bayeng will announce the cancellation of some tariffs in China ’s U.S. -US products this month, but the specific time has not yet been determined.

On the morning of the 5th, Liu He, deputy prime minister of the State Council of the State Council, called the video call with the US Secretary of Yellen, and immediately caused guesses of international public opinion on "the news of tariffs".

Immediately after the G20 Foreign Minister's meeting held in Bali, Indonesia on the 7th, Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi will meet with US Secretary of State Brillings.

In addition, Yang Jiechi, director of the Office of the Central Foreign Affairs Committee of China, met with the US National Security Consultant Sha Liwen in the middle of last month. The three high -level interactions in the short period of time brought the "frequent" impression of the recent communication between China and the United States.

Why is it at this time, the United States has staged a familiar drama of "anonymous officials showing the wind through the media"?

An analysis of an American issue scholar, of course, there is a factors such as "increasing negotiation chips", such as "increasing negotiation chips", but the Bayeng government's special internal differences in China ’s policy on China’ s policy are too large, which is also a major reason.

Severe inflation has become the "top priority" in Biden's mouth. A group represented by Yelun and Raymond, including the president, hopes that the United States will adjust tariffs on China as soon as possible, and the scope and scale can be slightly larger to alleviate the downward pressure on the US economy. But the other faction, the hardliners led by Dai Qi believe that it cannot relax to China anyway.

News from the United States and the United States show that Biden has decided to reduce some tariffs on China, but he does not want to "dare" to relax and suppress China, and want to make up for it, soothe the hardliners of China and the voters behind it. arrive.

It is not surprising that the operation of "showing strong wind to China" is therefore.

03

But the problem is that even if the United States has expanded export control to China based on Russia, can it work?

A scholar of the US Think Tank "International Strategy Research Center (CSIS)" wrote in the article in March that the United States continues to implement "external control" to intensify the 龃龉 龃龉 美国 美国 美国 美国 美国 美国 美国 美国 美国 美国 美国 美国 will bring about the turbulent business environment. More uneasy.

The New York Times reporter quoted this statement that the United States might be opposed by China's tit.

Many people in the American business community also oppose to increase export control to China.

Many senior US companies have a similar warning to Washington: doing so may seriously disrupt international business exchanges and promote China to control some key products in the United States, including specific mineral products that are also vital to the United States.

In the long run, a large number of export control will also erode the US technology and market leadership, because foreign customers may be forced to find other substitute sources.

Moreover, the "preview" of export sanctions on Russia is difficult to "reflect" and execute in China.

McLaren Briant, executive vice president of the American Chamber of Commerce, frankly said in the report that the American business community "firmly supports sanctions on Russia", but "more complicated and subtle" in China. The two largest economies of the United States and China are so closely integrated, and he said, "Promoting extensive decoupling or sanctions against China will bring greater turbulence."

Researcher Martin Josepa from the Peterson Institute of International Economics, pointing out another whimsical place of the United States "plan":

Many countries that have deep economic and trade connections with China will refuse export control to China. Therefore, "you don't see the consistency of sanctions on Russia", but it may lead to "splitting" in the United States alliances.

A scholar of international economic issues said that there is still some operational space for the United States to insist on increasing export control in China.

For example, a "unprecedented list" currently engaged in the Ministry of Commerce is only listed as "observation objects" for some Chinese companies as export controls. There is still a certain room for leaving a certain amount of room. It may not be restricted by sensitive technologies. However, if Washington is ironic, it is going to be decoupled to China, it may be "one step" in the list of Chinese enterprises in this list, and it is forbidden to export.

For this possibility, we still have to be vigilant and strong.

But to be honest, the United States has made rounds of trade war technology war in the past two years, and various "stuck necks" against China. Although it really makes us uncomfortable, it has not been able to stop the Chinese economy and science and technology from all parties such as the Chinese economy and technology. Facing good development.

On the contrary, the United States "self -damaged eight hundred" and was hurt by itself.

Although the Bayeng government releases the soft and hard tentative signals from time to time, sometimes claims to maintain communication with China, and will put a "guardrail" for the relationship between the two countries, and sometimes it is strong to China. Essence As the so -called soldiers come to cover the water from the water, we will not be taken by the rhythm, but will continue to continue to do our own things and steadily promote our goals.

Pictures from the network

Writing: Sword laughter

Source: Make up one knife

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