"This is a war with almost no chance of winning the United States."

Hong Kong Asia Online July 2nd article, original title: Australia is at the cusp of the wind and sea confrontation in the United States and China

Today, how can Australia cope with the severe and dangerous strategic environment of Asia in the United States and China to become regional leadership? Canberra's consensus should be as close to the United States as much as possible, hoping that it can win this competition. But choice is not so simple.

In late May, in the Western Pacific two far locations, Chinese fighter jets intercepted anti -submarine patrol aircraft in Australia and Canada. Both aircraft were conducting reconnaissance operations near the international waters near Chinese territory. For a long time, China has been sensitive to maritime reconnaissance operations in the United States and its allies on its coast, and often warns them to stay away. This may be the beginning of a new "movement", which aims to apply military pressure on the leadership of the United States in Asia, which will put Australia at the forefront. Before risking with the end of the show with the United States, it is wise to find other opportunities to test the United States and weaken its reputation. Aiming at the maritime reconnaissance operations of American allies in the coastal waters of China, it seems to be an obvious effective way.

Australian P-8A anti-submarine patrol data map

Canadian CP-140 Maritime anti-submarine patrol machine information map

Let's look at it from the perspective of Australia. China can make more and more frequent interceptions on Australia's maritime patrol aircraft in the South China Sea. In this regard, Australia either give up reconnaissance or send fighters to nursing patrollers. The latter choice is difficult, high and dangerous. The previous choice is a step with significant strategic significance, and Australia will not do it easily.

China's interception of Australian patrol aircraft is also a challenge to the United States. Australia will naturally look forward to Washington's intervention and send their own fighters to escort Australia. This is not easy for Washington. It does not support the credibility of Australia that will damage the United States as an ally and vividly show how China ’s power in the Western Pacific will grow to the world. However, sending American fighters to escort Australian aircraft in the South China Sea will risk the direct conflict between the United States and China.

So, what should Australia do if China launched an upgrade operation on Australia's maritime reconnaissance? Continue flying is an obvious and instinctive answer. However, the risk of instinct alone is too high. Australia's maritime reconnaissance in the South China Sea has no direct significance for national defense. More widely, Australia's implementation of these actions to support the United States to become a military force leading Asia. But is our gesture important to this? In view of China's economy, diplomacy and military strength, it has been so strong, and it will be further enhanced in the next decades. Can the status of the United States in Asia keep it in response to China's challenges?

As the Australian Society accepted the reality of Chinese strength, the exit with the seas near China may be one of the concessions that Australia will choose to make. This is not what Australia wants to do, but it may be better than another choice. Because for Australia, it is meaningless to take our future in the United States to win a war with China to compete for East Asia. It is very simple, this is a war with almost no chance of winning in the United States.

Author Hugh White is a honorary professor of Strategy and Defense Research Center of the National University of Australia, translated by Wen Yuan

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