What does Russia issue a mobilization order for the first time after World War II? What does it mean?

On the 21st, Russian President Putin delivered a national speech, announcing that some mobilization orders were launched in Russia. This was the first time that Russia mobilized after World War II. One day before, Donedsk, Landusk, and Hermuson and Zapolo in southern Ukraine announced that they would join the Russian Federation to hold a referendum on the Russian Federation from September 23 to 27. The Russian and Ukraine War is forming a new major situation.

The picture of Putin's speech, the source: "Today's Russia" TV station screenshot released

A number of international issues and military experts told the Global Times reporter that Russia's launch of some mobilization orders marked the new stage of Russia and Ukraine's conflict, and the long -term and further fierceness of the two sides' confrontation was inevitable. Russia may carry out larger -scale military operations this winter to form a balance between the "pro -Russian" forces in the southeast in Ukraine to fight against the "anti -Russian" power in the west.

On the same day, Russian Defense Minister Shaygan said that Russia will call for 300,000 reserve soldiers during the implementation of some mobilization orders. He also said that Russia has huge mobilization resources -nearly 25 million people. According to Shaygu, some mobilizations are applicable to those who have served, graduates of military statistics, and people with combat experience.

Zhao Huirong, a researcher at the Eastern European Institute of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, analyzed the reporter of the Global Times on the 21st that the release of some mobilization orders marked a new stage of the Russian and Ukraine conflict entering the confrontation. Hua is inevitable. In response to the current situation of tug -of -war and the new situation of Ukraine, Russia has made adjustments in tactics.

"In the future, both sides will eagerly want to gain absolute advantages on the battlefield, and the possibility of negotiation will become smaller. The intensity of the two parties confronts is likely to rise and the scope is likely to expand." She said.

In an interview with the Global Times reporter, Wang Xiaoquan, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and Eastern Europe and Central Asia, analyzed that the first mobilization order of Russia after World War II was transferred to three important information: one is that Russia attaches great importance to the strategic value of Ukraine; Russia is still determined to achieve its goals and intentions in Ukraine; third, Russia has been preparing to overcome greater difficulties and fights with the Ukraine and NATO behind it.

Wang Xiaoquan believes that Russia is undergoing military re -deployment and strategic goals. He analyzed that at present, it seems that Moscow's original "threeizations" goal of "de -Nazization, de -militaryization, and neutralization" of Ukraine is difficult to achieve in the short term. The balance of the "anti -Russian" power of the "forces of the Russian" may be the most important phase of the "new Russia" region in the history of actual control.

The "New Russia" region includes Odessa, Nicholaev, Hermuson, Zapolo, Denberlvsk, Kiroverov, Halkov, Donets Ke and Luguzk have been governed by Tsarist Russia and the Soviet Central Government for more than 250 years. Basically, during the Soviet period, it has been adjusted through the administrative division and entered the Ukraine territory.

"If this goal can be achieved, the territory, sea estate and most industrial foundations and population of southeast Ukraine will be controlled by Russia, and form a balance between the" pro -Russian 'power of the southern part of Ukraine to fight against western Ukraine's "anti -Russian" power. "Wang Xiaoquan said.

He analyzed that the adjustment of the above strategic goals means that Russia needs to launch larger military operations. The military operation of this "upgraded version" may come this winter, because the Russian army's expansion, training, supplementation supplements, and the "Russianization" transformation of the actual control area takes several months to complete, and in winter Frozen land and rivers in Ukraine will be conducive to the development of mechanized forces. In addition, in winter, Europe will face the peak season of heating, and its tolerance for energy will decline. At that time, Ukraine's economy and people's livelihood will be in a very difficult situation. Russia may also have the intention to change the internal and turmoil of Ukraine through a large -scale offensive.

According to Russian media reports, the day before, Donetsk, Lugusk, Zapolo, and Hermuson said that referendums about Russia will be held from September 23 to 27. The leader of the "Donetsk People's Republic", Pushi, told Putin that the main wish of the Donbas people was to join Russia.

In response to the referendum that is separated from Ukraine and joined the Russian Federation this week, Putin stated on the 21st that Russia will do all efforts to provide a security environment for the referendum for Donbas and regions to apply to Russia.

"If the Crimean incident in 2014 and the Donbass conflict promoted the relationship between Russia and Ukraine from opposition to confrontation, then the conflict in 2022 pushed Ukraine from anti -Russia to revenge." Zhao Huirong told the Global Times reporter, " The territorial issue is the most difficult problem in the complex relationship between Russia and Ukraine. The referendum in the four regions may further intensify this problem. Russia and Ukraine have been difficult to return to the past.

With the upgrading of the Russian and Ukraine War, the discussion of "nuclear weapons was put into the battlefield" has also increased in the West. According to media reports such as Reuters, Putin said in a TV speech on the 21st that the West has spanned all boundaries. Own responsible politicians are saying offensive weapons to Ukraine, and Russia is attacked. When Russia is threatened by territorial integrity, "it will be used to use all available methods, which is not intimidation." Some analysts believe that Putin's "all means" may include nuclear weapons.

Putin also said that the purpose of the West is to weaken Russia, isolated Russia, and eventually destroy Russia. The West clamored that "the Soviet Union can be disintegrated in 1991, so it is time for Russia to disintegrate." Putin said that after the start of special military operations, Ukraine's suggestions on Russia "have made positive feedback", but peace does not meet the interests of the West- "It is under the instructions of the West, Ukraine interrupted Russia Fang reached a consistent process. " Haguki said that Western was providing a large number of weapons to Ukraine, and the Russian -Ukraine conflict has now transformed into a collective war between Russia and Western countries.

Military expert Song Zhongping told the Global Times reporter on the 21st that the discussion on "use of nuclear weapons" was not new. Previously, NATO national politicians threatened to use nuclear weapons for Russia, which might continue to upgrade a medium -sized military conflict. Although some European countries oppose a direct conflict with Russia or intervene in the form of agents, Europe has actually been abducted by the United States.

He believes that if NATO or neighboring countries intervene in conflicts, the possibility of eruption cannot be ruled out. And if the United States is directly involved, the probability of tactical nuclear weapons will increase, which is the result that everyone does not want to see.

However, Wang Xiaoquan believes that at present, Western military support for Ukraine is mainly for self -defense weapons such as air defense systems, not offensive strategic weapons such as advanced fighters and missiles. However, if Russia will carry out larger military operations, will the West upgrade military aid against Ukraine and provide more offensive strategic weapons? Moscow's statement may be to warn and scare the West, and don't further upgrade the support for Ukraine.

"Russia does not use the promise of nuclear weapons first," he told the Global Times reporter that Russia's possibility of using tactical nuclear weapons cannot be ruled out, but now it is not necessary to see the necessity of Moscow. The lethality of the personnel, the destruction of the country, and the negative impact on international morality are too great. Unless Russia really faces this war, it has not reached the point of solving the problem with this method. "

"In fact, the use of the" nuclear weapon "of Russia to hype is entirely Western narrative. Russia is far from the point where nuclear weapons need to be used." An anonymous international problem scholar said in an interview with the Global Times reporter that Russia just started the starting part of the current part The mobilization order shows that Russia has enough confidence in controlling the situation of the war. It should maintain sufficient alert to rendering the terrorist atmosphere of the Western nuclear weapon topic and continuing to pour oil on the fire.

Global Times-Global Network reporter Bai Yunyi Zhao Jueyi

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