Zhang Sinan: China's "progressive" sanction of US military enterprises has a way to hurt them

Direct News: On September 16, a spokesman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Mao Ning announced that the Chinese government decided to impose sanctions on the chairman and CEO of Thor's Technology Company, Hayes, and President and CEO of Boeing Defense Corporation. What do you observe this?

Special commentator Zhang Sinan: First of all, this is not the first time that China has announced sanctions on two American companies, Thor and Boeing.

In October 2020, the Trump administration approved twice within a week for military sales, with a total amount of more than 4.1 billion U.S. dollars, including the "fish fork" anti Patrol missiles are extremely bad in nature. On October 26, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China announced the participation of American companies that sanctions Boeing Defense and Thor Technology.

On February 7, 2022, the U.S. State Department approved direct technical support to the "Patriot" air defense missile purchased by Taiwan. On February 28, the Chinese government quoted the Anti -Foreign Sanctions Law to counter the US military industry companies such as "long -term participation in Taiwan's military sales".

Coupled with the latest rounds of sanctions on September 16, China has "progressively" launched a comprehensive sanctions from the company's main body to relevant individuals on the company's main body to relevant individuals.

What are the sanctions? According to the "Anti -Foreign Sanctions Law", the sanctions that China can take include three categories: first, no visas are issued, not allowing visas, not allowing entry, cancellation visas, or deportation; second, seizure, seizure, frozen real estate in China, Real estate and other types of property; as well as the crucial third, it is forbidden or restricts the organization and individuals in China to conduct relevant transactions and cooperation activities in China.

Some people may ask, US military companies like Thor's technology and Boeing defense seem to have no business exchanges with mainland China. What effect can Chinese sanctions work? In fact, I noticed that a number of American media also ridiculed with a similar attitude.

But don't forget that sanctions, as a policy tool, have two purposes: the first is revenge, that is, countermeasures, and forcing the other party to correct the wrong decision by applying damage; the second is deterrence. For China, it is best to be in China. The result is not that American companies participate in the military sales of Taiwan, and then we sanction. The best result is that China hangs the sanctions on the neck of American companies, allowing these companies to resist the participation of the Taiwan military sales by the US government.

Even if the Boeing Defense and Thor technology, the two companies, the two companies, and Mainland China do not have a large number of direct business exchanges, do not mean that the upstream and downstream chains and related companies of the two companies have no business in China, which does not mean that it may participate in the United States, which may participate in the Taiwan military sales in the United States. Enterprises have no business in mainland China.

I just mentioned that China adopted a "progressive" sanctions and rounds of sanctions. Regardless of the specific result, at least one clear signal was passed, that is, China ’s sanctions warning on Taiwan’ s military sales issues “ Do n’t say that you do n’t say that you do n’t say it. "The upstream and downstream chains of the sanctioned enterprise will keep a distance from the military sales because they are worried about entering the blacklist. What does the company itself mean? The language replaced by the American public opinion field is to calculate the cost and compliance cost.

Straight news: For American companies such as Boeing Defense and Thor's technology, such as "long -term participation in Taiwan's military sales", seemingly the effect of imposing a effective punishment role in Chinese sanctions?

Special commentator Zhang Sinan: This is a good issue.

Even Boeing Defense and Thor technology are not impeccable for sanctions from China. The Boeing Company, which belongs to the Thunder God Technology itself and the Boeing Defense Corporation, has a large number of civilian business, especially in the field of civil aircraft, while China is the second largest civil aviation market in the world and the most vigorous civil aviation market in the world.

Take Boeing, which we are familiar with, as an example. Prior to the Sino -US trade war, China was the largest single market for Boeing to fly overseas with a total market after the United States. From 2012 to 2017, the Chinese market accounted for more than 20%of the global delivery of Boeing Merchants Flying in the world for six consecutive years, and in 2017, it exceeded 26%. One of the three 737 passenger planes in Boeing was a airline that delivered China.

The Boeing Company of Zhi Man claimed that the purchase value of commercial aircraft in the Chinese market in the next 20 years is more than $ 1.5 trillion. At the end of 2017, when President Trump visited China, China and the United States signed 300 Boeing aircraft orders.

Then there is no more. With the 737 MAX grounding incident, Boeing has not received any orders in the Chinese market for more than 4 years. In 2020, the number of Boeing's global delivery was halved, and the market value evaporated by half, and the annual loss was nearly $ 12 billion. Coupled with the economic recession caused by the new crown epidemic, Boeing adopted an unprecedented large -scale layoff plan.

In 2022, as the safety of the 737 MAX passenger aircraft was re -certified, Boeing has finally breathed a breath and is expected to reverse the downward trend over the years. Boeing also hopes to put it on the Chinese market as always. Boeing pointed out in this year's development report that by 2041, the Chinese market will account for 21%of the global new passenger planes, so China is considered the key to future business development by Boeing.

However, while the Boeing plane hopes that at the same time as the Chinese market, Boeing Defense participates in military sales against Taiwan. How can there be such a good thing? The relationship between Boeing defense and Boeing aircraft is actually very vague. In a sense, Boeing is inseparable from the Chinese market, and the Chinese market can leave Boeing. In July 2022, China purchased 292 passenger planes from European Airbus. Data showed that Boeing's market share in China will be reduced to 40%or even lower from the Airbus in the next few years.

And once Chinese airlines using Boeing aircraft have begun to use Airbus's planes, this will make Boeing's nearly "incompetent" loss of these market share, because considering the cost of training and maintenance spare parts of the pilot, the airlines are either not. Tends to change between aircraft manufacturers. To change, it is necessary to use at least ten years as a duration unit. Not to mention that Chinese large aircraft such as C919 are also about to be delivered. It is very difficult to say that Boeing is not in a hurry, because it is very difficult to get back the lost market.

If Boeing does not want such a future, it is necessary to make some kind of "self -rescue" on the issue of military sales on Taiwan; if Boeing wants to continue to profit from the Chinese market, think about promoting the proper track of Sino -US relations in the right track of the right track. What functions can be played. In any case, no enterprise can infringe on the interests and dignity of the Chinese while earning the money of the Chinese.

Author 丨 Zhang Siman, straight news leader, Shenzhen Satellite TV "Live Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan" special commentator

Editor 丨 Liu Liping, editor of Shenzhen Satellite TV Direct News

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