It is planned to install over 1,000 cruise missiles, what abacus to play in Japan

Author:Look at the think tank Time:2022.09.17

Japan's "Yomiuri Shimbun" reported on August 21 that the Japanese government is considering installing more than 1,000 cruise missiles and deploying the southwest islands to Kyushu.

The report quoted a number of Japanese government officials as saying that more than 1,000 cruise missiles will be improved by the existing 12 -type shore -based anti -ship missiles existing in the Japanese Land Self -Defense Force. After the improvement, the range of missiles will be expanded from 100 kilometers to 1,000 kilometers, covering the range of North Korea and eastern China. Japan also plans to develop models that can be launched on the surface ships and fighters based on the missile. In addition, the improved shore -based missile deployment time will be two years earlier than the original plan, and will be deployed as soon as 2024.

Author | Yang Zhen's Deputy Director of the Northeast Asia Research Center of Shanghai Political Science and Law School

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Why is a cruise missile?

In recent years, the Japanese government has continued to break through the Peace Constitution, and has repeatedly developed advanced weapons and equipment including helicopter aircraft carriers, but no weapon can cause so much controversy and opposition like this cruise missile. The reason is that cruise missiles are an unusual offensive weapon.

Patrol missiles are a missile launched with rocket -assisted machines, relying on the thrust of the jet engine and the pneumatic lift of the magazine. They mainly fly in a cruise state in a dense atmosphere. As far as its combat mission is concerned, it is generally divided into anti -ship cruise missiles and ground attack cruise missiles. In most cases, the former is called anti -ship missile, while the latter is called a cruise missile.

The first time the cruise missile was on the stage of the war was the end of the World War II. At that time, in order to restore the troop of the war, Germany successively developed V-1 missiles and V-2 missiles. The V-2 missile is the originator of the current cruise missile. With immature technology and the general trend of the battlefield, the V-2 missile has not exerted much power, and as the Nazi Germany annihilated in the historical trend.

During the Cold War, many models of cruise missiles such as the United States and the Soviet Union, such as "Snake Shark" and AS-15, but due to the short range of its speed and the accuracy of the accuracy, it was always covered by the light of the ballistic missiles. Essence

With the development of the information -based military revolution began in the 1980s, cruise missiles began to shine on the subsequent war stage.

On April 7, 2017, the U.S. naval ship launched a Tomahawk missile in the Mediterranean.

During the Gulf War, the Kosovo War, the Afghanistan war, and the Iraq war, the Tomahawk cruise missiles were widely used and performed well. It has become a pillar of the US Navy from sea to land and long -range accurate blows. During the Gulf War, the U.S. Navy launched a total of 288 BGM-109C/D Tomahawk cruise missiles, and the US Air Force launched 35 AGM-86C air shot cruise missiles.

The United States also used Tomahawk cruise missiles during the Kosovo war, and a total of 238 were launched. In this local war, the hit rate of Tomahawk cruise missiles increased from 80%in the Gulf War to 85%. Due to the use of the special medicine combat department, such as the U.S. military using the Tomahawk cruise missile with the Carbon Fiber Battle Department to attack the 7 major power plants in the South League, the effect is very significant, which has caused a large -scale power off -range in the South. It is estimated that Quannan 70 %Of the power supply was destroyed.

During the Afghanistan war, Tomahawk cruise missiles once again reflected the power of remote precise blows at sea. In this war, as the first choice of the US and British army, the use of cruise missiles is:

The hit rate is further improved. The accuracy of Tomahawk cruise missiles has exceeded 90%. The main reason may be that Afghanistan belongs to continental climate, and cruise missiles are less affected by the climate.

Using density. The first round of air strikes launched 50 cruise missiles. In the first day, more than 200 were involved in the attack. The number reached the number of use during the entire Gulf War. The training camp organized by Maldo and Ben Radan "Base".

Use the updated combat department to install medicine. These cruise missiles are equipped with the high -level combat department. They have attacked the underground targets of the Taliban regime and the "base" organization of the Ben Ladan, destroyed multiple underground bunkers and underground bases, and achieved the anti -terrorism purpose of the US military.

During the Iraqi war, the number of submarines and ships that launched Tomahawk cruise missiles in the US military increased, providing a "material foundation" for a large number of Tomahawk missiles. A total of 802 Tomahawk cruise missiles were launched The most local war. During the Gulf War in 1991, only two submarines for the U.S. Navy launched Tomahawk cruise missiles.

During Trump's administration, the United States fired cruise missiles to Syria twice. The first time he used the destroyer as the launch platform, he launched 59. US "Tomahawk" missiles, US -style "Jassm" cruise missiles, legal MDCN sea base cruise missiles, "storm shadows" air -based cruise missiles, including "airports for chemical weapons attacks" and "suspected chemistry Weapon Store ".

The reason why cruise missiles are so great is that after human society entered the information age, many high -tech blessings have made it a weapon with strong penetration capabilities, high blow accuracy, and flexible launch methods. The penetration capabilities of cruise missiles are manifested in ultra -low altitude, maneuverability avoidance and most of the use of stealth technology. It adopts inertial navigation (INS), GPS/terrain matching (Tercom), digital scene matching (DSMAC) guidance system, plus infrared imaging (active millimeter wave radar, laser radar, etc.). It is greater than 500 kilometers and a low -altitude cruise height is between 7 and 100 meters. It can implement accurate air strikes. It is important to point out that the "commercialization" of GPS systems, ring laser gyroscopes, third -generation microprocessors, and single -chip microwave integrated circuits is making cruise missiles cheaper and easier to own. For Japan, For industrial power, the technical threshold of cruise missiles itself is not difficult to cross.

Japan's calculation

On the issue of developing and equipping navigation missiles in Japan, the executors on the surface are Japan. The pusher behind it can be known that it must be the United States. On this issue, the two sides can be described as their own small abacus.

On August 28, 2016, in the Fuji exercise field in Fuji, Fuji, Japan, on -site self -defense team members were conducting missile deployment exercises.

As far as Japan is concerned, its intention includes the following aspects:

The first is to change your slump.

In recent years, Japan has repeatedly issued difficulties in China in the Taiwan Strait issue, the Diaoyu Islands, the South China Sea issue, and historical issues, but have been strongly countermeasure by China. With the acceleration of China's industrialization process, the gradual formation of the strategic Air Force and the Oceanic Navy, China's advantages in the formation of Japan have gradually expanded in the military field. In order to reverse this slump, Japan attempts to develop campaign -level and strategic offensive weapons.

If Japan has its own cruise missile, then you can do it yourself. Thinking of the arrest of the Japanese spy in China in China a few years ago, it makes people feel that this is the long -lasting plan of Japan.

The second is to strengthen the bargaining chips in the maritime field.

Japan has always been in the East Asian marine owner, and has repeatedly occurred with neighboring countries with the dispute between marine rights and interests: it is almost troops to Russia as the South Thousand Islands (known as the "Northern Islands"); The problem occurred for decades of quarrels; multiple rounds and competitions were made with China.

Nowadays, Japan's military power is not dominant compared with neighboring countries. Even if it comes with South Korea, it takes a lot of time to get the advantage. If 1,000 cruise missiles can be equipped, not only can it have the ability to crack down on the target, but also increase the bargaining chips to the marine rights and interest games to Russia and South Korea.

With advanced weapons and equipment as the bottom, Japan, a marine country, can adopt a more aggressive trend in the ocean field, which is one step closer to its dream of the East Asian ocean.

Finally, it is to improve its position in the United States and Japan Alliance.

In recent years, the main targets of the United States and Japan alliances are self -evident, and Japan's subordinate status in the alliance is self -evident. Japan's right forces are not reconciled to such status. It should highlight its anti -China value and increase Japan's weight in the United States through equipped with 1,000 cruise missiles, thereby increasing its position in the United States and Japan. factor.

In addition, in the global high -end industry competition, Japan has begun to be vigilant in China. In the fourth industrial revolution, Japan is almost destined to be not Chinese opponents. The strong rise of China in the field of new energy vehicles means that Japan's traditional strengths will be surpassed by China one by one. Out of the darkness of deteriorating China's investment environment, Japan's high -profile announcement of considering the installation of cruise missiles is clear.

Be careful in the United States

For the United States, there are other plans:

Strengthening Japan's containment of China is the primary consideration.

In recent years, the United States has continuously launched an offensive offensive to contain and suppress China under the concept of "big country competition", including trade war, decoupling strategies, Taiwan issues, and so on. However, just as the containment of other largest industrial powers in history, the effect is not as good as the side effects.

When the Japanese government announced the deployment of more than 1,000 long -range cruise missiles, it was declared that the move was mainly for "strengthening the ability to counterattack China." From the perspective of the United States, this can enhance the containment of China and save the cost of hegemony support for the United States, which is what the Bayeng government wants.

To strengthen control over Japan is also one of the United States.

As mentioned earlier, it is not difficult to get cruise missiles in the strength of Japan. However, cruise missile combat requires a guarantee system to support, such as satellite navigation systems. However, there is no evidence that Japan's satellite navigation system can support its cruise missiles to strike the target 1,000 kilometers away. Therefore, Japan's probability is to use the US GPS system to navigate its cruise missiles. In other words, the lack of support for the American combat system, Japan still has no power to launch a long -range precision blow. As a result, the United States can strengthen control over Japan.

In addition, using Japan to stir the Asia -Pacific, implementing the "Indo -Pacific Strategy" is the goal that the United States wants to achieve.

As we all know, the "Indo -Pacific Strategy" is another attempt for the United States to contain China's "Asia -Pacific Balance" that has failed in China. In this geopolitical strategy directly targeting China's geopolitical strategy, the US, Japan, and India -India four -sided security cooperation mechanism is its core. The acquiescence and even condoning Japanese launch cruise missiles, while increasing the tight military cooperation in the United States and Japan, are also to promote the "Indo -Pacific Strategy". 4

How bad the influence is

The Japanese government's high -profile announcement will consider that the installation of cruise missiles will have a very unfavorable impact and impact on regional stability and prosperity. The negative impact is mainly reflected in the following aspects:

First, this is Japan's right forces to break through the "special defense" and hollowing out the "peace constitution" with actual actions.

The current Constitution of Japan is also known as the "Peace Constitution". It was implemented in 1947. It was written by the Occupy Occupy Japan after the defeat of Japan in the Second World War. Article 9 of the Constitution's famous Article 9 clearly states: "Japanese citizens sincerely seek international peace based on justice and order, and will always abandon war, force threats, or force exercise of military power launched by national power as a means to solve international disputes." Article 9 The second paragraph also explicitly stipulates that Japan does not maintain the land, sea, and air forces and other war forces. Therefore, after the establishment of the Japanese Self -Defense Force in 1954, in order to make this military organization with Article 9 of the Constitution, Sugihara Wilder, then the Chief of Defense Agency, faced the Congress in 1955, and also proposed the "specializing in preservation. Defense "principle.

However, Japan's actual actions are destroying this. The Abe government lifted the ban on the collective self -defense rights in 2014. In March 2017, the internal party of the Liberal Democratic Party that ruling at the time submitted a proposal report to the then Abe cabinet that suggested that Japan equipped a remote cruise missile for the Self -Defense Force to enable it to have an attack on the enemy base. Develop off -area missiles that surpass the defense limit. Now it has announced a high -profile installation of cruise missiles, which allows Japan to have the ability to launch war and conduct force threats. It not only conflicts with the spirit of the Peace Constitution, but also violate its commitment to the international community. The consequences of Japan's constant hollowing on the peace constitution will eventually be projected into the Asia -Pacific region.

Second, this also lays the foundation for Japan's road to military power.

Patrol missiles have a complete combat capability and requires a complete set of combat system support. Japan can take the opportunity to improve its ability, such as satellite navigation capabilities, geographical space information acquisition capabilities, and so on. At the same time, the launch platform for attacking missiles on the ground can be launched from submarines, surface ships, and airplanes. Japan can also develop cruise missile nuclear submarines.

In addition, the current Japanese cruise missile system 12 anti -ship missiles are modified. The speed is only 0.9 Mach. In order to improve the follow -up of subsequent models, Japan is likely to consider installing a high -speed cruise missile. The speed of the hypersonic cruise missile is above 5 Mach, and it can implement a mobile rail.

The US "Global Security" website states that "compared with conventional missiles, high -end -speed cruise missiles can maintain a higher cruise speed for a long time, thereby compressing the opponent's reaction time. At the same time, its volume and size are smaller. Empty platform carrying ".

Japan has accumulated technical accumulation in this regard. On July 24, 2022, the Japanese Universe Airlines Research and Development Agency (JAXA) successfully shot a small rocket that verified the technology of super -burning stamping engine technology, marking that Japan has taken an important step in the field of hypersonic weapon development.

The Institute of Sweden's Security and Development Policy Research stated that the development of hypersonic missiles is very difficult. At present, only a few countries participate in the "competition". Among them, Russia, China and the United States are located in the first echelon, and Australia, India, Japan and Europe are located in the second echelon. However, from the perspective of technical strength and actual development, Japan ranks first in the second echelon.

It is important to point out that Japan has followed the United States and has pointed its goals to China. In the foreseeable future, with the arrival of the fourth industrial revolution, the strength gap between China and Japan will further expand. It is no longer a dream to surpass Japan in terms of industrial competition. From the perspective of Japan's extremely right forces, when China is currently underworld, this is also the last opportunity window for China.

The installation of cruise missiles enables Japan to have the ability to combat mainland China. If the Japanese decision -making layer really tries to use this as a means of attack -consider the preference for strategic adventure in the history of this country (such as raid raids (such as raids Pearl Harbor) —— Then it will cause the entire Asia -Pacific region to be in danger.

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