Liu Heping: Russia and Ukraine's combat model is very different, maybe decide the tire of war?

Picture source: Broadcasting Corporation

Straight News: Mr. Liu, the Ukrainian army claims to recapture multiple strategic towns including Ijum and Kippizesk in the direction of Halkov in the north. What do you think this means for this Russian and Ukraine conflict?

Special commentator Liu Heping: I noticed that many comments like to retreat from many eastern strategic towns including the Russian army from Ijum and Kippizusk, comparing with the Russian army from Kyiv from the end of March this year.

I think the nature of the two is completely different. At that time, the Russian army retreated from Kyiv, although objectively speaking, it was indeed because the Russian army could not get Kyiv, but subjectively, there was indeed the meaning of the Russian army to make strategic tactics and contraction. Five fingers shrink back, hold a fist, and prepare to focus on attack and win the Wudong area. And this time the army retreated from Ijum and Kopirjask, although the Russian Ministry of Defense 10 claimed that this was to achieve the "established goal" to strengthen the direction of Donedsk, but I tend to think that this is a passive retreat of the Russian army. Essence In other words, when the retreat from Kyiv, the Russian army also held the hope of winning Wudong, and retreat from Ijum and Kippandsk, I am afraid that the Russian army will be caught in at least a short time and confusion. state. Therefore, for the Russian -Ukraine conflict, this may be a key battle that affects and determines the ultimate direction of the war. As for whether the war situation will be more and more conducive to Ukraine and the direction of Russia, it will be more and more observed.

Direct news: Ukraine has been fighting in the south before, but now it has made breakthroughs in the northeast. What do you think of the performance of the two armies of the Russia and Ukraine?

Special commentator Liu Heping: In my opinion, the reason why Ukraine will work hard, and even take the tactics of hitting the west at all, and also takes the northern strategic town such as Ijum and Kopirjansk. Objective: First, through this battle, the morale of the Ukraine's domestic army and the people is further enhanced, and more importantly, Ukraine must recover, consolidate, and even re -boost the confidence of Western countries for Ukraine at a critical time. We know that the two hundred days of war fought, especially on the one hand, with the war in a state of stalemate, on the other hand, Western countries have generally fallen into the pain of lack of oil and gas and high inflation. Even with anti -war emotions, even some Western countries governments are re -thinking about assisting Ukraine whether it is worthwhile and whether to continue to assist. Well, just at this section of bones, the Ukrainian army wants to see the governments and people of these western countries through such a "victory" to see the hope, and see the coming return of war investment. The return on investment in the West is not only to defeat Russia, but also to weaken Russia, and once and for all to remove a long -lasting sufferings in Western countries. In addition, Ukraine also wants to crack down on Russia's domestic and popular hearts through this battle, allowing the anti -war emotions in Russia to explode. This is why Ukraine has promoted the so -called great princes in the past few days.

It is worth noting that in response to Western public opinion that this is the "biggest defeat" since Russia's "biggest defeat" since the Second World War, the Russian side does not acknowledge that it is a strategic tactical adjustment that it has taken the initiative. In my opinion, if Russia can regain the foothold after this adjustment, they must want to further introduce the war into the state of lasting and stalemate, especially looking forward to dragging the war into this winter. Because in Russia's view, after entering the cold winter, the supply of oil and gas resources in European countries will be further nervous, prices will rise further, people's grievances will be boiled further, and anti -war sounds will look up again. In other words, Russia is also hoping to fight for the hearts of Europe.

Direct news: Why did the Russian conflict develop to the situation where the results still cannot be seen for more than two hundred days?

Special commentator Liu Heping: In fact, on the second day of the war, I predicted that this conflict will be trapped in a long -term war and battle state for a period of time. The more unfavorable to Russia. For this reason, I also believe that both Ukraine and Russia should stop and stop bleeding in time.

First of all, from the perspective of the general trend and power, Russia, known as the world's second military power, is obviously an advantage of rolling in Ukraine. But this is just a superficial phenomenon, because this war is not just Russia and Ukraine. It is actually a agent war. There is the world's number one military country in the United States, NATO, and the Western world in the general broader. Essence Then in this case, if we cannot judge the military strength of Russia and the West, just look at their economic strength and scientific and technological strength comparison. Russia's total economic volume is inferior to South Korea, and the economic structure is more dependent on natural resources exports. Therefore, both economy, technology, or military strength, Russia and the West are not on the same level. In other words, the reason why the Russian and Ukraine conflicts are hit today because Russia is not just fighting with Ukraine, but because the entire Western country is playing partial fighting.

Secondly, I think that there is an old saying in China, and it is exhausted, and it is exhausted. In terms of momentum, Russia's strongest military strength is the first blow to war. If Russia can use the thunderstorm to cover his ears in the first hit, win Kyiv in 24 hours, and win the entire Ukraine within 48 hours, then the battle ends in advance. However, if Russia does not do this, the situation will be bad. Because next, under the western comprehensive economic blockade and financial sanctions, Russia's national strength and military power will lack the ability to re -hematopoietic. On the contrary, Ukraine can not only receive continuous weapons assistance in the West, but also helps Ukraine training strong reserve forces in its territory. In the end, Russia still adopts the combat mode of the steel torrent of the steel torrent during World War II, while Ukraine not only has a decentralized and flat reform of the military management system, but also uses a modern guerrilla warfare mode. This decentralized guerrilla warfare, once combined with information warfare and intelligence wars in the West, will erupt amazing combat effectiveness.

Author 丨 Liu Heping, Shenzhen Satellite TV "Live Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan" special commentator

Editor 丨 Zeng Zijin, editor -in -chief of Shenzhen Satellite TV Direct News

Capture 丨 Su Ruixue

- END -