Sun Wenzhu: Global Forum | Japanese defense "11 consecutive increases" refraction dangerous trend

According to Japanese media sources, Japan ’s defense province's 2023 fiscal year budget applied for 5.59 trillion yen, and about 1 trillion yen quota“ has not been approved and named ”. The two may exceed 6.5 trillion yen Essence If this number is passed, the Japanese defense expenses will once again reach a record high, reaching the "11 consecutive increases" since 2013.

The complicated composition of the defense budget reflects a subtle balance between the new and old forces in Japan. The defense budget application in 2022 was the first time for Kishida Wensuki to be the Prime Minister in September last year, and the first time that the former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was assassinated.

Since the beginning of this year, Kishida and Abe have been fighting against the adjustment of defense expenses. After being drunk and expanding the constitution, Abe still controlled security defense affairs for a long time, seized all opportunities to actively "exert the heat", advocated the benchmarking NATO, and the defense expenses accounted for GDP to the current slightly higher than 1%to 2%. This article is written into the new version of the "National Security Protection Strategy", and has also publicly shouted that about 6 trillion yen defense expenses should be ensured in the original budget of 2023. Kishida Wenxiong was dissatisfied with Abe's intervene, opposing a clear commitment to "2%". In late June, Kishida broke the convention, forcing the defense minor official, Abe's Consonomous Shimada, and Jiu Li office in charge of formulating the new version of the "National Security Strategy", and rejected the defense minister, Abe's brother Kishidu and Abe himself. After Abe was assassinated, Kishida initiated the cabinet reorganization in advance, and replaced Anxinfe before the new year budget application was submitted. After the new defense came to power, basically followed Kishida standing, and put the main increase in defense budget in the "unsuccessful" section. After the new version of the "National Security Strategy" was introduced at the end of the year, it was clear that it reflected the strong observation of the color.

However, whether it is Abe's "sharp increase" or "Dark increase and slow increase" claimed by Kishida, it essentially reflects Japan's defense policy and national strategy. Regional peaceful and stable interference variables.

The first is the steering of defense policies. The increasing increase in defense expenses is just the tip of the iceberg that has been adjusted by security policy in recent years. In terms of military power construction, Japan's focus has been obviously "shifted from defending", and invested a large number of resources such as new missiles, fighters, offensive drones, etc., and enhance the collaborative combat capabilities in space, network, electromagnetic waves and other fields. Seeking a "qualitative change" of defense capabilities. The primary content of this defense application is to independently develop a long -range cruise missile with a range of more than 1,000 kilometers. Japan plans to deploy this type of missile in the southwest islands and Kyushu as the earliest in 2024.

With it, the Japanese government considers the development of the so -called "counterattack ability" (that is, the strike capability of the premissions) into the new version of the "National Security Strategy", so that Japan can truly become a regional military power that can be "capable of attacking and defend". After completely air combat The principle of "special defense" adhered to.

The second is the re -positioning of international strategic characters. The exacerbation of the Sino -US game and the outbreak of the Ukrainian crisis made Japan see the opportunity to use the "protection object" by the United States to become "important partners" by the United States. Japan forcibly linked the Ukrainian crisis to the situation in East Asia, stealing the connotation of national security concepts with the so -called "free opening of international order security", trying to make itself a "new cold war bridgehead" to highlight its contribution and value in the safety field.

Japan's conservative forces have been further, and Tuzou joined forces to "control the Chinese" in the United States, and at the expense of destroying the political foundation of Sino -Japanese relations, and contributing to the American "Indo -Pacific Strategy".

The third is the transformation of national identity. Japan ’s overtime military construction and continuously“ add opera ”for themselves in international security affairs. The fundamental demands still lies in getting rid of the“ post -war system ”restraint and shaking the burden of“ defeat ”. The fundamental is Article 9 of the constitution that stipulates the "peace country" attributes of Japan. After the Senate election in July this year, the number of political forces supporting constitutional amendments to the two houses of the Japanese Parliament has exceeded two -thirds, reaching the threshold line to launch the constitutional amendment procedure. Although there are still large differences in the internal and interior of the constitutional amendments, some conservative forces have been eager to try, and they will soon launch a constitutional amendment plan that can be reviewed by Congress.

For Japan, multiple challenges such as intensified inflation, weak economic recovery, heavy financial burden, and heavy epidemic rolls have been superimposed, which has overwhelmed the people. At this time, the expansion of military expenses is destined to be unpopular, and it will also make the Kishida regime, which has declined with the people, faces greater pressure on support. After the new fiscal year defense budget was exposed, the Communist Party of Japan and the Constitutional Democratic Party have made criticism in the wild party, and the Gongming Party within the ruling alliance is also concerned.

In the long run, only Japan can only benefit the people of the country and maintain the common interests of the region. Regardless of the reality, the poor soldiers and martial arts even incite nationalism and populist anti -flow for voting, which will only lead Japan to the "dead end" that will lead Japan to the development of the country.

(Sun Wenzhu, Associate Researcher and Ph.D. of the Asia -Pacific Institute of China International Institute of International Institute. The original article was included in the Public Daily August 26, 2022)

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