Wu Wei: U.S. lease nuclear submarines for Australia?These small abacus has not been made clear

"Virginia" class attack nuclear submarine information map

Straight News: Mr. Wu, various signs show that the United States is increasing the military investment in the so -called "Indo -Pacific Strategy", which is manifested in accelerating the pace of military cooperation with Australia. The US -Australian nuclear submarine military trade cooperation has also made new trends. What do you think?

Special commentator Wu Wei: Peter Daton, the opposition leader of the Australian Defense Minister, recently revealed a message to the media. He believes that in the past ten years, Australia should be able to obtain two attack nuclear submarines from the nuclear submarine production line in Connecticut. Instead of waiting for 2038, Australia slowly produces its own domestic brands. His statement made the Australian media respond quickly, so there was news that "the United States or leased to Australia with two" Virginia "class nuclear submarines". As for the feasibility of this matter, I personally think that I am afraid that the news is not enough to grasp it. Because of historical point of view, the United States has never rented nuclear submarines to which allies in the United States, let alone the core pillar "Virginia" class of the underwater fleet.

Of course, Daton is a insider. He understands that the nuclear submarine as the orb of the national defense industry is by no means that it can be done overnight. A model from design research and development to manufacturing production to the installation troops to form combat effectiveness, and then pulsating production to form a scale effect, which is probably a large cycle of 15 to 20 years. This is still an optimistic calculation of the three military and technical cooperation between the United States and Britain and Australia. Can you imagine what the Asia -Pacific pattern will be like in 2035 and 2040? If the U.S. armed Australia's intention is really used on the Pacific Confucian duels they envisioned, can the Australian domestic nuclear submarine really catch up? I think this is what Daton wants to express.

I believe that Americans must understand the allies' shouts, but they have to "Virginia" level when they open their mouths. This is probably unacceptable. First of all, at this stage, every "Virginia" class that is being built has a clear object to be replaced. This involves the rotation of the US Navy nuclear submarine troops. It is unlikely that the United States is hungry because of the needs of the allies. On the other hand, the sale of military technology transfer and core active equipment is completely two concepts. The former can refine the scale of the transfer technology, and the latter is to brighten all the skills of the household. I don't think that the United States will do this for Australia. One of the best examples is the attack nuclear submarine of Britain and France. It is completely independent of the independent R & D route. Even if there is certain American technical support, it does not involve the core system. Whether it is the honeymoon period of Britain and the United States or the honeymoon period of China and the Soviet Union, some technologies are always hidden, which is probably the more real side of human history.

Straight news: On the other hand, on the eve of the "Tantai-20122" military exercise, the U.S. military invested a large number of troops in the "Indo-Pacific" theater in the Mariana waters near Guam to conduct a "brave shield-20122" military exercise. Some media interpreted very straightforwardly that the background of this exercise was the so -called "China tried to expand its diplomatic and military image in the Indo -Pacific region." What do you observe this?

Special commentator Wu Wei: There are two basic entry points to observe a military exercise, one is the use of troops, and the other is the exercise area.

First of all, look at the power of troops. According to the statement of the Seventh Fleet of the US Navy, the "Shield of Brave-20122" integrates the US Navy, Marine Corps, Air Force and Space Army of the "Indo-Pacific" theater, including 15 surface ships and more than 200 aircraft. And 13,000 combatants. We can get a basic judgment that the military force invested in the exercise mainly comes from the air and air forces in the Pacific Ocean and some amphibious expeditions. The ground elements of the U.S. and the US military in North China and the U.S. military in Japan have not been involved.

Then look at the area, the "Brave Shield -2022" exercise is mainly carried out in the Mariana waters of the Guam base to the Palau Islands. It is used to cover it. Here is just at the edge of the range of anti-ship ballistic missiles of the PLA's Dongfeng-21 series. Although it is still within the coverage of the Dongfeng-26 series, the US military has limited fire density.

Now we can probably speculate that the background of the US military's exercise is determined. That is, assuming that the mountains and the so -called "first island chain" from Taiwan to the front line of Taiwan to Okinawa have been shaken. Essence This is a game between regional intervention and reflection.

Compared with Washington's politicians, the U.S. military is relatively pragmatic, and they have a more intuitive understanding of the Asia -Pacific pattern. In this exercise, the strategic support point of the U.S. military is the front line of Guam. They may hope that here can gather the sea and air forces that retreat from the "first island chain" to save strength with the PLA's dense remote firepower strike.

Of course, my interpretation may be a bit aggressive, and the situation in the Asia -Pacific situation is far from the degree of tension.But we can see some clues from the every move of the U.S. forces, that is, in their eyes, our PLA will have a strength in the next five to ten years.But I also have to be clear that it is completely two concepts to have some strength and whether to use it correctly and reasonably.Wei Feng and Minister have just announced the background of the Chinese People's Liberation Army at the "Xianghui" scene at the "Xianghui" scene recently: We are always a division of peace, but we will also resolutely defend national sovereignty, security, and development benefits.Author 丨 Wu Wei, Senior News, Special commentator of Shenzhen Satellite TV's "Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan".

Editor 丨 Zeng Zijin, editor -in -chief of Shenzhen Satellite TV Direct News

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