Zhang Sinan: The main consideration of the United States for military sales in Taiwan is not the economic account

Straight News: The island authorities launched a defense budget that was nearly 15%higher than last year. What do you think of this trend?

Special commentator Zhang Sinan: The DPP authorities expand their defense budgets. Naturally, they want to buy more weapons from the United States. But this problem is not for Taiwan to say, the key depends on whether the United States is willing to sell more weapons.

Some people say that the US government is the economic account in this matter, and the greedy military complex behind it is of course willing. However, I have previously counted that since the "US Taiwan breaks" in 1979, the United States has sold more than one hundred military sales to Taiwan, and the amount of paper has exceeded 70 billion US dollars. Based on today's purchasing power, it has been converted to $ 10 billion.

What is the concept of 100 billion US dollars for the world's largest arms dealer? According to the US State Department's December last year, the US global military sales in the fiscal year in 2021 were $ 161.1 billion. 43 years of military sales of Taiwan, but the total number of military sales in the United States in the United States is 62%. This number is not big, and we can read two points from it.

First, don't think that the warnings and condemnation in diplomatic words are useless. As China's deterrent to the United States, they show our attitude and give the United States a scruple of the United States in selling Taiwan's military sales. In the 4 years from 2016 to 2020, Trump's military sales accounted for only 1.6%of US foreign weapons supply.

What would happen if the United States did not worry about? Taking Saudi Arabia, which is similar to Taiwan, which is similar to Taiwan, it has hardly eaten 24%of the total military sales in the United States in the same 4 years. The United States has continuously provoked the incident in the Middle East, and has been unwilling to promote the peaceful resolution of the situation in Yemen for a long time, so as to maintain the huge demand of Saudi Arabia for American weapons.

Secondly, in addition to the United States, unwillingness is the most important consideration. In other words, the United States actually calculates political accounts on the issue of Taiwan's military sales.

On the bright side, the United States adopted the so -called "fuzzy strategy" in the Taiwan Strait, but I think this vague strategy has been completely shattered in the past less than a month. After Pelosi visited Taiwan, the United States adopted a very conservative response in the face of the PLA's high -intensity continuous continuous circuit in Taiwan, that is, there was no substantial response. Keep a distance of more than 1,000 kilometers. This makes the outside world believe that whether it is a lack of determination or out of the lack of ability, the US probability will not be involved in the Taiwan issue with force. Just like I saw the emotions of some Taiwanese netizens on the Internet: the PLA really dared to fight, and the American guy really dared to run.

And this also reveals the dumb mystery of the "vague strategy". We can judge that the first strategic goal of the United States to the Taiwan Strait is that without direct conflicts, the cost of armed unified armed unified Taiwan as much as possible, so as to be low in the United States low in the United States. Costs, low thresholds but more cost -effective political interventions create necessary mediation space.

If we understand this strategic goal, it is not difficult to find that it is not in line with the strategic interests of the United States. Especially under the current situation of the Taiwan Strait, it continues to stimulate mainland China with a highly sensitive military sales problem. It is undoubtedly the stupid mother to open the door and stupidly go home. The United States wants to testify the bottom line of mainland China through Perosi on the stage. The United States has done so and also sees the bottom line of mainland China, that is, the inevitable strength and determination of the PLA unified Taiwan. Next, unless the United States wants to make some "major contributions" in China's final unity, it will be more cautious. This is why we see the "three cancellations and five pauses" in China. The United States does not have a hard work around Taiwan's problems, but instead uses the attitude of the victim to "grievances". Although it is shameless, this is actually a sense of sense. Soft.

Interestingly, on August 25, the authorities on the island launched a large increase in defense budget, and the Reuters received news from the US government that day that the United States would not increase the sales of Taiwan military. It is clear -to avoid the tension between China and the United States, which further deteriorates due to the sales of the Taiwan military.

Direct news: Some people also say that the United States has actively setting off the wind to restrain Taiwan's military sales. It is a military complex in "hunger sales". What do you think about this?

Special commentator Zhang Sinan: This is an interesting issue, but the essence of this problem is to understand the strategic thinking of the United States with the "economic account" I just said, and believes that the United States' military complex abducts the US foreign policy.

In 1961, the US President Eisenhower, who was born in his farewell speech, proposed the concept of "military complex" for the first time in his farewell speech. This concept is so intuitive and in line with people's intuition. In summary, there are only three sentences: conflicts bring profits. In order to pursue new profits, they pursue new conflicts.

This is indeed a way to understand US foreign policies, but the problem is that, as a country, even if its strategic interests can be measured by money, it does not mean that money itself is the only goal of US foreign policy.

Just like what I just said, the United States calculates political accounts instead of economic accounts in Taiwan's military sales. The purpose is to raise the cost of armed forces in mainland China as much as possible, so that the Taiwan issue is a free shore -based starter. , Not to maximize the goods. The so -called "hungry sales", instead of seducing the purchase of more authorities on the island, it is better to avoid excessive stimulation of the mainland and prevent premature triggering the final moment. This is also for the United States. The fundamental significance is not fundamental, and the issue of Taiwan is in your hands. The conflict of the Taiwan Strait in the United States is by no means for the profit of military sales, but because the military sales are to promote the tension of the Taiwan Strait and even the tension of the entire Asia -Pacific Pacific. It maintains the necessity and rationality of the United States in the Asia -Pacific strong military and political existence. Inappropriately, whoever in this world wants mainland China to insist on not abandoning the bottom line of Taiwan. In addition to the descendants of the motherland, they must be unified, and may also include some Americans. If the horizon is high enough.

Ironically, this is doomed. From the beginning of the weapons sold in the United States, the overall situation of the situation of the Taiwan Strait will not change the situation at the war level, because these weapons are not to change the overall situation, but to continue to be the island. The internal authorities inject unrealistic fantasies "with martial arts rejection", and continuously add oil and vinegar to the "fear" thought on the island. For the goal, but the pursuit of the unity of the people, the mainland to safeguard the common interests of the two sides of the strait.

Just as I said in previous comments, for mainland China, Taiwan is a fellow citizen of bone and flesh. As long as there is hope, it is unwilling to resort to the options of the avengers of the relatives. This kind of cross -strait affection is coming to mainland China, and it is expected that mainland China is constantly concession because of unbearable heart, thereby meeting the national interests of the United States.

Author 丨 Zhang Siman, straight news leader, Shenzhen Satellite TV "Live Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan" special commentator

Editor 丨 Liu Ying, editor -in -chief of Shenzhen Satellite TV Direct News

Types 丨 Zhuo Yizi

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