Li Yihu: The mainland's policy to Taiwan is advancing with the times

Li Yihu, Dean of Peking University Taiwan Research Institute, accepted an exclusive interview with the Global Times: Mainland's policy of Taiwan is advancing with the times with the times

[Global Times reporter Xing Xiaojing Global Times Special reporter Li Yao] Earlier this month, Perosi, Speaker of the United States Congress Perosi, disregarded the Chinese side to visit Taiwan. Sound: Some people think that the mainland is more passive. Some people think that the mainland has completely changed the situation in the Taiwan Strait, and some people say that the mainland has taken this opportunity to strengthen its dominance in the Taiwan Strait. Li Yihu, Dean of the Taiwan Institute of Taiwan and Professor of the School of International Relations at Peking University, said in an exclusive interview with the Global Times reporter that the mainland has adopted countermeasures for "in response to the situation". He believes that the gate of peace and unity in the mainland is always open, provided that it depends on how the political ecology on the island changes, especially whether the governors on the island can accept the "1992 Consensus" and its core meaning.

Famous countermeasures of dangerous machinery

The Pelosi incident caused a series of situations, and the situation in Taiwan and China and the United States became nervous. How should the mainland respond to this? Li Yihu, Dean of the Taiwan Institute of Taiwan, told the Global Times reporter that it is mainly divided into two aspects: one is the response of the incident itself, and the other is the shaping of the strategic situation in the Taiwan Strait area. The former belongs to the technical level and the latter is a strategic level.

On the surface, on the surface, Perosi regarded the strong protest of the Chinese side and insisted on the platform. The US President Biden also violated his political commitment. The mainland seemed to be passive in response to specific events. However, after the incident, the mainland has made great progress in the shape of the strategic situation in the Taiwan Strait area. "I want to borrow a word commonly used in Taiwan, which may be more appropriate, that is, the reaction action taken by" responding to the situation "." The act of seeking initiative in passive, "turning crisis into a machine." Just like this time, the mainland puts the falling point of counter -action action on the shape of the strategic situation of the Taiwan Strait area.

Taimei reacts low -key due to "ghosts in his heart"

Some public opinion noticed that in response to this military exercise and follow -up, the reaction of the DPP authorities was slightly low -key and did not have hissing. Li Yihu told the Global Times reporter that this was because they "had ghosts in their hearts." "Different from ordinary Taiwan, the Taiwan authorities know that the mainland knows that the mainland is not 'wolf coming', but a bit like 'spanking' -you do not abide by the rules, I hit your ass like an adult." Another On the one hand, although the Democratic Progressive Party authorities still attempt to "rely on the beauty" and collude with the US anti -China forces, hoping to "resist", at the same time they also saw the fierce reaction of the mainland. The office and other aspects responded successively, showing a tough attitude, "the Taiwan authorities still have some scruples about this."

On the other hand, the United States has not made a tough response. Pelosi rushed to the road on the line, avoided the South China Sea, and shifted from Indonesia to Taipei. Li Yihu said that the United States, like Taiwan, knows that the mainland has a resolute attitude, and the United States can hear and feel it. "The" Reagan "followed like escorting Pelosi, but it was by no means protecting Taiwan." He mentioned that after Pelosse's imperial departure, the "Reagan" also evacuated quickly. This was different from the third Taiwan Strait crisis in 1996, and the United States sent the "Nimitz" and "Independent" two aircraft carrier formations to support Taiwan. This time Perosi, as the US government No. 3, "Lagan" was "escorted" for Pelossi. The task was retreated and did not confront the mainland military. "The United States knows the losses of self -awareness, understands that he has not fulfilled his promise, violated the basic principles of relations between the two countries, and also violated diplomatic etiquette. Direct conflict.

Is the normalization of military exercises effective?

In response to the specific results of the early month of military exercises, Li Yihu further supplemented the above content when talking with the Global Times reporter. He believes that the mainland's ability to shape and control the strategic situation in the Taiwan Strait area has been improved. "It is very different from the deduction, simulation exercises to practical military training." He explained that the mainland used to use Pingtan Island and Dongshan Island to simulate exercises. The actual effect is more realistic and has a strong sense of live. This also provides practical verification for future assumptions that in special circumstances, when non -peaceful means to solve problems, which is closer to actual combat.

On the 9th of this month, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that China carried out normal military training activities in the surrounding waters of its own territory. It was open, transparent, and professional. The relevant departments have also issued an announcement in a timely manner. The international practice is a warning to the provocative, and it is also a legitimate move for Chinese to safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity. This is also interpreted by many Taiwanese media as that in the future, military exercises around the Taiwan Strait will enter a normal trend. The Ministry of National Defense and the Eastern theater also announced that there will be normal police patrols in the future.

In the future, whether the normalization of military exercises can become an effective action, Li Yihu believes that this military exercise mainly shows two major capabilities, which is considered a verification sign. First, the mainland is enough to cause a four -sided and high degree of restraint to Taiwan Island. Second, countries such as Japan and the United States and other attempts to intervene have displayed regional refusal/anti -intervention capabilities. "As long as the mainland has these two capabilities, normalized training or other actions is effective." He said that at least within the first island chain of the Western Pacific region, the mainland's region to the United States is strong/anti -intervention ability. Although it is only local, it has a key advantage, which will allow the United States to have great fear when taking action. The unified environment has changed

Since the entry of the Liberal Democratic Party, it has continuously rendered the "mainland threat" to the people on the island and attempted to create the so -called "feeling of the country" to strengthen the "anti -China" mentality of ordinary people, especially young people. This situation has intensified after the start of the Russian and Ukraine conflict, and the Taiwan Defense Department even posted materials such as "refuge maps" and "national defense manuals" to the public. Some comments believe that this is a "war prevention needle" to the people on the island in a subtle way. For this statement, Li Yihu believes that this problem is more complicated and delicate. "Deep in the hearts of the people in Taiwan, there are still sensitive nerves, otherwise there will be no such materials such as the" Handbook of Life "on the island." As the training of the PLA may become more and more normal, the degree of practicality will become increasingly combatant. The higher the island, the people on the island may also feel "whether to start war." "Many things always feel far away, but when they arrive, they are actually very close to you." Li Yihu said that the action that the mainland may take is not the sudden arrival of the "black swan incident", more like the "gray rhino effect". Usually it doesn't matter, but once the "gray rhino" rushes over, it is too late to respond, and it will only bring a "disaster for extinguishing".

Li Yihu emphasized that from now on, the basic policy of the mainland is still peaceful and unified cross -strait. The white paper "Taiwan Issue and the Unified Cause of China in the New Era" released in the middle of this month has once again reiterated this basic position. The statements are also the first choice for peace. " If the Taiwan side can return to the "1992 Consensus", of course, there is a possibility of peace and unity on both sides of the strait. Prior to this, it may experience the process of peaceful, peaceful development, and common planning, and will not easily close the door of peace and unity.

"But we do not rule out other methods, including non -peaceful ways." He mentioned that if the DPP authorities always follow the "progressive Taiwan independence" line, use "constitutional amendment" to launch "jurisprudence Taiwan independence" and other excessive excitement, and then It is possible to stimulate the mainland to adopt non -peaceful ways. Therefore, this question depends on how the political ecology on the island changes, what kind of cross -strait policies and cross -strait routes the Taiwan authorities implement, "the ball is on the Taiwan authorities."

Under the current circumstances, how much space is there in the interaction between the people on both sides of the strait? On January 2, 2019, General Secretary Xi Jinping pointed out in an important speech in the 40th anniversary of the "Book of Taiwan Compatriots" that "long -term merit will definitely achieve the consolidation of compatriots on both sides of the strait." Li Yihu believes that "it can be seen that Chinese leaders are talking about cross -strait issues from the spiritual and psychological level."

In Li Yi's view, the "spiritual fit" has a deep meaning. In order to solve the problem of cross -strait problems, on the one hand, it is necessary to defend Taiwan as part of the Chinese territory, and on the other hand, compatriots on both sides of the strait need to be reached in the hearts of the people. "Realizing unification on the basis of identifying China and recognition of Chinese people is a high -quality unity." This requires promoting cross -strait relations from a materialized world to a humanized world. "Cross -strait exchanges are important. We must not stop or be less. We must vigorously promote the integration and development of cross -strait sides of the strait, so that the healthy interaction between mainland society and Taiwanese society." He said that "White Paper" also mentioned integration and development, and in the current situation, there is a situation in the current situation. Specific meaning.

【Edit: Chen Wentao】

- END -