Russia and Ukraine's decisive battle, about winter?

August 24th is the "Independence Day" of Ukraine, and it is also Russia's announcement of "special military operations" for Ukraine for half a year. With the frequent situation between the two parties, the situation has intensified.

Xinhua News Agency information map

Although the US military aid for Ukraine is still continuing, Europe has been exhausted. Regarding the end of the "tug -of -war" of Russia and Ukraine, Ukraine has recently mentioned the time of "winter" many times-

Ukrainian President Zelei Video publicly stated publicly when attending the Summit of the Seventh Kingdoms Group that he hoped to end his military conflict with Russia before the beginning of this winter; Yermark, director of the Ukraine's office, also said that Ukraine must win before the winter, otherwise the Russian army will be the Russian army. With more time to consolidate the situation of the battlefield, the counterattack of the Ukraine will be more difficult.

What is the current situation? Will the war end in winter? How will Russia and Ukraine conflict? Chang'an Street's interview with the deputy director and associate researcher of the Eurasian Research Institute of China Modern International Relations Research Institute, Shang Yue made an interpretation.

The battle is tight, and the article is done outside the battlefield

Knowledge: Recently, Russia and Ukraine's conflict has intensified. First, there are workers in the Zapolo Nuclear Power Station and its nuclear accidents. Du Jin's daughter was killed and other incidents appeared.

Shangyue: In the six months of Russia and Ukraine's conflict, such as the above -mentioned disputes that attracted global attention, it reflects that the front battlefield of Russia and Ukraine is in a stalemate and stalemate, and it is difficult for both sides to obtain an absolute advantage on the battlefield, and they will make articles outside the battlefield.

Throughout the process of Russia and Ukraine's conflict, it is the "Hewei Kyiv" stage from February 24th to early April, and it is also the first stage of Russia's "special military operation". At this stage, the Russian army aimed at de -militaryization and Nazi, and attacked Kyiv from multiple directions, resulting in large casualties and weapons loss.

In the second stage since April, the Russian army focused on Wudong, with the goal of "liberating Donaldia". Since May, the Russian army has successively won several large cities in Ukraine, including Mali Ubol and Nortston, and won the whole territory of Lugusk in July. Subsequently, focusing on Donedsk, it is advancing the remaining 40%of the remaining 40%of the Ukraine from the northwest, northeast and southeast direction.

In fact, since Russia's merger Crimean eight years ago, the Ukraine has been prepared in the Donetsk area. More accurate and effective. Therefore, since July, the Russian army has advanced slowly in the region. Although it still has an advantage, the battle between the two sides is generally stalemate and stalemate.

To be treated, the rhythm of Moscow expects

Knowledge: Recently, there are public opinion speculation that the breakthrough point of the war between the two sides is likely to be the late autumn and early winter this year. How to view this time in winter? Will the war end in winter?

Shangyue: At present, winter is the end of the end of the war that is generally speculated by the outside world, and the situation of war slipping into autumn and winter is already very obvious.

On the one hand, the conflict will definitely not end in the short term. At present, it is difficult for both sides to quickly gain a situation that is good for themselves. On the other hand, the war in the winter is obviously more beneficial to Russia.

Queen Yekaterina has a famous saying: "We have eight months in winter and four months of bad weather." Although this sentence is a bit exaggerated, it also reflects the Russians because of their long -term living in a harsh environment. Habits and good at acting in the cold winter. In several major wars in Russia's history, winter has repeatedly become a decision to reverse the war, such as the Russian France War in 1812 and the Second World War.

In addition, winter is even more unfavorable for Europe. Russian -Europe relations have continued to deteriorate in the war, and energy has become the focus of the game.

In August, Europe implemented an embargo on Russian coal. At the end of the year, Europe will be embarked on Russia's oil, and only natural gas has not been sanctioned. Putin signed the ruble settlement order for natural gas trade in April, and also implemented "Qi" for some European countries, and greatly reduced the transportation volume of "Beixi One" and transit Ukraine's natural gas pipelines.

The energy crisis in Europe has intensified, and before the winter, it has fallen into a "energy cold winter". In this "energy war", Russia is obviously in a more active and active position.

Scientists predict that high temperatures in summer may lead to the extremely cold winter. It can be imagined how torment this winter will be for Europe -not only to face the crisis of energy, but also to respond to high inflation. End the war.

In this context, will the differences in Russian policy within Europe further expand? This is the season when Russia's "treating" tactical expectations.

The United States adheres to 4 principles, European fatigue is full

Knowledge: U.S. President Biden announced on the occasion of Ukraine's "Independence Day" that it provided Ukraine with military assistance worth about $ 3 billion worth of US dollars. What impact does this affect the situation?

Shangyue: Since the outbreak of the war, the United States has watched the fire from the shore, and has played the role of the largest "offshore balancing hand" in the Russian and Ukraine conflict, and has obtained a lot of strategic benefits: both Ukraine consumes Russia and strengthens the internal unity of NATO. , Make this organization that is about to "die" slowly.

To sum up, on the Ukrainian issue, there are 4 principles in the United States:

The United States and NATO do not have a hot battle with Russia; control the war in Ukraine; unite NATO in the Ukraine crisis; Recently, the Ukraine used remote weapons such as Hamas Rockets provided by the United States to launch a counterattack, bombarding the four bridges of the Dieber River, weakening the ability of Russian transportation heavy equipment, and hindering the Russian military supplies.

The Russian side has repeatedly warned that Western military aid may become an important factor in war upgrades. The United States must help Ukraine and dare not stimulate Russia too much. To this end, it is necessary to control the strength and rhythm of military aid.

In contrast, European military assistance in Ukraine has been fatigue, which is closely related to the dilemma within Europe. The United States "Politicians" News Network disclosed that since April, European military assistance to Ukraine has been declining, and it is a problem with whether it can fulfill its commitments before the end of the year.

How to end depends on the three o'clock

Knowledge: How will Russia's conflict will end? What is the sign of the end of the war?

Shangyue: According to the above analysis, the end of the Russian and Ukraine conflict depends mainly on the following three points:

First, the size of Russia's appetite, that is, what is Russia's goals for Ukraine and whether it will be adjusted according to the battlefield situation. Do you just want to win the two states of Donnedhne and Lugusk? Or do you want to get Hulson and Zapolo again? Or on this basis, to north and south, take Oeda and Halkov? Russia's goal is the first important evaluation condition.

Second, the strength of Russia's ability. Since the outbreak of the war, Russian military personnel and equipment have consumed greatly. Russia intends to incorporate the occupied Ukraine land into the referendum scope on the annual "unified voting day" in September, but the advancement is not smooth. The social governance of the land and the guerrilla warfare of Ukraine have troubled the referendum process. It is still a question that Russia can occupy and control how much control.

Third, the West supports the western support. The decision of the war process is not in the hands of Ukraine. How long can Ukraine be supported, depending on how long the United States and Europe can last.

In the end, the end of the war can be defined by both Russia and Ukraine.

However, a common standard is that the military ceasefires have been suspended, and they have conducted peaceful negotiations. They each default and accept the current battle. At present, it is far from that step.

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