Chen Bing: Putin and Zelei are not negotiating directly

Straight News: Mr. Chen, the Russian and Ukraine War has been in the past half a year and is still deadlocked. Do you think how to evolve in the future?

Special commentator Chen Bing: The Russian and Ukraine War played for 6 months and was still in the stalemate. This was exceeded by many people. The Russian side said that the war will continue, and everything is performed as planned, and Putin and Zeelianzi will not negotiate directly. Ukraine President Zelei also said that it will retract the Crimean Peninsula through any available means. Ukraine will decide on itself not to negotiate with any other country. At present, it is not ready to negotiate with Russia. This means that the Russian and Ukraine War will continue, and neither sides seem to be addicted. However, both sides were a little tired. The Russian side said that it would slow down the war. Ukraine did not dare to celebrate on an independent day. For fear of the Russian army's offense, the American Embassy in Ukraine began to escape.

Looking at the supporters behind Ukraine, the United States continues to help the Ukraine. The European Union is still encouraging Ukraine. The meaning of Russia has no retreat. It is waiting for the U.S. -Europe Union to disintegrate, waiting for the political change after the US midterm elections, waiting for the Ukrainian government's internal rejuvenation in order to accumulate power to launch a winter offensive.

In contrast, Russia still has a huge advantage in human resources, natural resources and thermal warehouses, and Ukraine mainly relies on foreign aid to maintain war. Therefore, the process of war in the future depends on two aspects. One is how long the West can support Ukraine. After this year's severe winter test, Western governments will be disliked by their voters, will it reduce the reduction of military and economic assistance to Ukraine and economic assistance. Once the aid from Ukraine has decreased, it is difficult to continue to fight, and it is not ruled out that the land is cut off. The second is how much ammunition can Russia's arsenals provide war. Do you have financial capabilities to support war? The US sanctions against Russia seem to have not played a role in this six months, but from the long term, the blow to the Russian economy will still appear, especially for military strength, which is not easy for Russia. I guess this war will not end this year, but there will be no greater progress. It is probably the basic situation for a long time in stalemate and stalemate.

Direct news: People say that the Russian and Ukraine War has changed the world, so what have been changed? Has the international pattern after the Cold War changed accordingly?

Special commentator Chen Bing: The Russian and Ukraine War did change the world, and people don't want to return to the pattern of 6 months ago. It can be said that the 6 -month war changed the world structure from 6 aspects. First, after the Cold War, people generally believe that there will be no war in Europe. The Kosovo war is regarded as the last war in Europe, but it is obviously wrong. Where is the war, the war is touched.

Second, the form of the war has changed. Even the agent war, before the two major powers support a force behind each other, fight forces in a certain country, but now a large alliance has appeared to support a country and another. The country started war. The way of support has also changed. No need to make people, as long as you pay for weapons, you can fight for half a year. This will change the equality of the country and the country. Some smaller countries may be forced to make part of the sovereignty and become the vassal of a large league. The world will be more split and different camps will appear.

Third, as the world's EU, you can never want to be independent in the future, let alone get rid of dependence on the United States. NATO was united because of the Russian and Ukraine War, and expanded its strength. Sweden Finland took the initiative to join, but the European Union fell. Regardless of economic or security, it became a little brother in the United States.

Fourth, the United States has become a source of instability in the world. Not only does it go shirtless to start a war, but also behind the other country to pull the gangs to help the war and destroy world peace. This kind of disadvantage of others just reflects the decline of the United States, and unconfident powers often show their "boss" status by launching war or supporting war. In other words, the world can no longer say that the United States has slipped on the throne of the superpower after the end of the Cold War, and the world has a diverse pattern.

Fifth, Russia's international status, including the status of military powers, has damages. After the Russian and Ukraine War hit the current situation, especially after Lightning attack the Ukraine capital Kyiv, it seems that Russia's power is unsatisfactory, and economic strength cannot support the position of military power. The weakening of Russia's strength may trigger a series of changes in Central Asia, the Middle East, and Northeast Asia.

Sixth, the biggest change brought to the world by the Russian and Ukraine War will be an intensified competition between China and the United States. The changes in the international pattern in the next decades will be carried out around Sino -US strategic competition, a win -win cooperation concept with the community of human destiny, and the division of camps based on the rules of hegemony. International order.

Author 丨 Chen Bing, special commentator of Shenzhen Satellite TV "Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan"

Editor 丨 Tan Yanwen, editor -in -chief of Shenzhen Satellite TV Direct News

Capture 丨 Qiu Hui

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