Wang Zhaoyao: State Strategic Power -Re -thinking about the positioning of commercial aerospace (1)

Author:Satellite and network Time:2022.08.10

Invited topic:

Text | Wang Zhaoyao (Special Consultant of Satellite and Network Magazine)

first time

Open a new form of modern warfare

——D commercial aerospace deep intervention

1. Russian and Ukraine conflict: the first real mixed war

In essence, the Russian and Ukraine conflict is the next typical modern condition of the US -Russian strategic game. In this war, based on their own strategic interests, the two sides used Ukraine as the main battlefield, and the United States, which did not directly participate in the conflict, did not directly participate in the conflict.

Although the concept of "hybrid war" has been proposed by the United States in 2009 and has received global attention and research, it has not been fully and complete at the real level. The many new features and new forms presented by the Russian and Ukraine conflict are widely considered to be the first real mixed war.

The hybrid war presented in this conflict contains three levels of meaning:

First, from a technical perspective, it is the integration of mechanization, informatization, and intelligence.

Second, from the perspective of the complexity of the form of war, in this hybrid war, the traditional military conflict is only one of the sides. In the process of the entire war so far, including the previous stage of brewing, it has run through the stage of brewing, which runs through the stage of brewing, which runs through the stages of the early stage. Political, economic, diplomatic, and even culture such as politics, economy, diplomacy, and culture globally, comprehensive and comprehensive confrontation, and political war, diplomatic warfare, economic war, financial war, energy war, public opinion war, cognitive war, psychological war, cyber warfare, cyber warfare , Intelligence war, etc., constitute the overall form of war.

Third, from the perspective of the diversity of participation subjects, on the surface, the direct conflict between Russia and Ukraine is essentially the strength of NATO, the European Union, and the United Kingdom, which is mainly based on the United States. The confrontation of these two camps. Among these forces, in addition to the national power, it also includes many folk forces. The most noticeable of which is the intervention of commercial satellite systems such as the star chain. The power of commercial aerospace continues and in -depth to participate in it, and has a significant impact on the situation and process of war.

Most of these characteristics of mixed war have been reflected in the past geopolitical conflicts. However, this time the commercial aerospace forces that participated in the Russian -Ukraine conflict are mainly Western commercial aerospace companies represented by SpaceX. They are a new type of forces or interests that have rarely appeared in the past. In fact, it is precisely because of the appearance of this new forces or stakeholders that marks the opening of a new form of modern warfare and the inspiration to us. The subversive impact and revolution of practice even have a broader and far -reaching impact.

Second, why the in -depth participation of commercial aerospace has become an important sign of a new form of war form opening

First of all, this is a priority choice with the essential characteristics of the mixed war and consistent with the strategic goals of the United States.

The so -called hybrid war is a comprehensive strategic confrontation between the national (group), which has the characteristics of non -declaration, non -recognition, non -motion, uninterrupted, etc. Compared with the traditional war mode, the hybrid war has richer strategic game means. It can use non -governmental organization forces to formulate attack methods for the specific characteristics of the opponent, so as to win the war with the fastest, the least cost, and the best effect.

In the United States, there are two major strategic considerations in the use of hybrid warfare in Russia and Ukraine: First, the attack method is hidden and diverse, avoiding conflict upgrades, especially the direct conflict between the great powers to prevent the risk of nuclear war. Second, the low cost of confrontation is conducive to maintaining the long -term and comprehensiveness of the war, and the strategy of continuously and comprehensively consuming Russia has a living force.

Western commercial aerospace companies represented by SpaceX are involved as civil power, which provides more flexible space for the controllability of war. Because the behavior of folk forces does not represent national behavior, it can control the war in an appropriate range. At the same time, the war consumption of war companies' war operations compared to the national level is undoubtedly a replacement method with low cost and small cost. To a certain extent, the Western commercial space company involved in the Russian -Ukraine conflict, some of them played the role of war agents, and also made the connotation and extension of the agent war and extended new deepening and expansion. The agent war is one of the main forms of the game of geopolitical conflicts after World War II. Perhaps this also indicates that civil forces represented by commercial aerospace will play a pivotal role in future geopolitical conflicts or agent wars. In fact, in this conflict, many well -known commercial technology companies have involved from different angles, including electronic information companies such as Amazon and Google. But why is the intervention of commercial aerospace companies a more important factor for the mixed war? It is precisely because of the use of aerospace means that high -tech capabilities such as communication remote sensing can be used to obtain information and combat information. This is also the fundamental reason for the value and role of commercial aerospace in the context of modern information warfare, and participating in the value and role of hybrid warfare. It is the root cause of other folk forces.

Secondly, it is conducive to the country's ability to control the strategic control of the war and increase the room for strategic rotation.

In this Russian conflict, many Western commercial aerospace companies provided Ukraine with a large amount of military information and combat intelligence. In fact, it was deeply involved in the war. Russia had all reasons to attack the commercial satellite systems such as Star Chain. Royogin, then the director of the Russian Federal Aerospace Office and the president of the Russian National Aerospace Corporation, pointed out: The ground terminal equipment of the SpaceX star chain satellite system has "armed personnel who was delivered to the Nazi group 'Yasu Camp' through the military helicopter, and in The Ukrainian Marine Corps of Mary Ukrain ". In response, Rogjin shouted that Musk was responsible. For any country, satellites have important national strategic asset attributes. Therefore, if the United States wants to make a directly confrontation with Russia in person, the satellite that claims to be attacked is a national asset; in turn, it can be said that the star chain system belongs to private assets, which can allow the country to put their own affairs and avoid conflict upgrade. Therefore, the star chain system of SpaceX participating in the Russian -Ukraine conflict, for the United States, its nature and consequences are controllable, which greatly enhances the flexibility of US diplomacy and military strategies. Provide a considerable strategic room for a lot of room for closing. Third, it is conducive to occupying an advantageous position in public opinion war, propaganda war, cognitive war, and even psychological warfare, and cultural warfare.

Public opinion war, propaganda war, cognitive war, psychological war, and cultural warfare is an important part of the mixed war. It can greatly affect the international public opinion direction and public opinion tendency and value judgment in the world, thereby affecting the process of war.

As a folk force, commercial aerospace attitude and behavior of war, on the one hand, reflect the folk opinions, value judgments and psychological tendencies independent of the official statement of the state. At least on the surface, it has a considerable degree of public opinion. For example, Musk's active support of Ukraine in Russia and Ukraine's conflict has a great impact on the international community, especially folk public opinion. On the other hand, based on the traditional mechanism and operating model of Western public opinion, people trust and prefer to accept unofficial or independent information and evaluations.

In Russia and Ukraine's conflict, Western Commercial Space Corporation provided a large number of satellite pictures and data that is not conducive to Russia, which has a strong tendency, and forms the West in public opinion, propaganda warfare, cognitive war, and even psychological warfare. The asymmetric advantage in cultural warfare.

Therefore, an important inspiration that can be obtained from the Russian and Ukraine conflict: the role of commercial aerospace in the future war is actually a cross -zone in the mixed war. Although on the surface, it is not directly involved in the conflict, but it is a mixed mixed A pivotal and indispensable participant in the war. This is one of the most important changes brought about by Western commercial aerospace companies represented by SpaceX's intervention in Russia and Ukraine.

In addition, the in -depth participation of commercial aerospace also laid the sign of high -end wars for the Russian -Ukraine conflict. The so -called high -end, that is, high -tech blessing. Western Commercial Space Corporation helps Ukraine to a certain extent in the confrontation of Russia, which represents the modern highest technology level informatization and technology, and has obtained the relative advantages of military information and intelligence.

For all these, we can draw a basic judgment: commercial aerospace is already or becoming a national strategic force that cannot be ignored, and plays the role of an important shaped by a new modern war form.

3. From the perspective of the Russian and Ukraine battlefield, commercial aerospace as a national strategic force

Let's briefly review the role and value reflected in the commercial aerospace in Russia and Ukraine.

In this Russian conflict, a large number of commercial remote sensing satellites and communications satellites owned by the West showed their skills. For example, Marksa's star group; the pigeon constellation, fast -eyed constellation, and sky -eye constellation of the planetary laboratory company; and the original independent operation of European independent operations that have been integrated in Airbus defense and space companies The 6 commercial remote sensing constellations, including photoelectric and radar satellites, and the historic Spot satellite series, have provided important image information in the war.

As for the significant role of the Star Chain system in the Russian and Ukraine conflict, a large number of literature has been evaluated and analyzed. At the beginning of the war, SpaceX urgently provided dozens of star chain terminals to Ukraine and opened services. In early June, Musk announced the number of terminals provided by Ukraine of 15,000 units. These terminals maintain a certain level of informatization of the Ukrainian society and the Ukrainian army. Many cities in Ukraine restore local network connections in many cities in Ukraine, and even the scenes of Ukraine citizens surround the star chain terminal. Star Chain has also become one of the important means of communication in the Ukrainian army battlefield. Some Ukrainian soldiers took the Star Chain terminal as the main means to accept intelligence and instructions, reporting messages and dynamics.

In fact, before the conflict broke out, Western commercial satellites have become political and military tools in the United States. Since the end of 2021, the mainstream news media in the United States has begun warning, arguing that Russia is preparing for an offense against Ukraine. In this wave of public opinion, a large number of products from two American commercial remote sensing satellite companies, which are the satellite images provided by Maxica's high -resolution satellite group and planetary laboratory company. The former can clearly distinguish and count the number of assembly and equipment of the Russian army; the high time resolution of the latter makes people feel that the war is approaching step by step. Figure 1 On February 10th, a satellite shooting of Maxis, the equipment and troops deployed by OkTyabrskoye Airport in northern Singfelo Pop in the Crimean region before the war

In addition, in the distribution of satellite images around Russia and Ukraine, a significant feature can be found -almost all images are not conducive to Russia. This is not only because the West has the right to speak of social media, but also because of the serious asymmetry of image acquisition. This has caused the ability to influence public opinion with satellite images, which has a great disparate. In the so -called public opinion war, cognitive war, and propaganda warfare, Russia was obviously disadvantaged.

In contrast, the situation in Russia is lacking. Russia not only did not have any commercial remote sensing satellites, but also suffered setbacks in the emergency launch of military remote sensing satellites. On April 29, Russia launched a universe reconnaissance satellite. However, by May 16, foreign observers found that the track of satellites was abnormal. Subsequently, according to Internet news, satellites were burned into the atmosphere. One side has sufficient satellite images to distribute, but one party does not have enough satellite investigation methods. This is also an important reason why Russia is in some kind of intelligence disadvantages in this conflict. In addition, the Russian army is not popular enough in satellite communication applications, leading to a serious lack of field communication capabilities. Not only that, Russia's efforts to interfere with the operation of the star chain system failed to succeed.

On May 10th, Musk published a tweet on Twitter: "So far, the Star Chain has been resisting Russia's interference and hacking attacks, but the other party is increasing efforts."

由此，从商业航天的视角来看，以SpaceX为代表的众多西方商业航天公司全面、深入、持续地介入俄乌冲突，或许标志着这一战略性新兴产业正在或已经超越其单纯的经济与The significance and role of the scientific and technological level, and the stage of entering the global geopolitics and military games, highlights its value and prospects as a national strategic force. This will have a profound impact on how to locate commercial aerospace and how to view the status and role of commercial aerospace. Especially for the development of development, but there are still many theoretical and practical Chinese commercial aerospaces, it has a very strong enlightenment significance.