Xiang Shuai annual speech: Should I buy a house?Which city is more potential?Understand

On July 30, 2022, the "Top Tide · 2022 Xiangshuai Annual Fortune Prospect" was held in Shanghai.

Xiang Shuai once said that as a scholar, in an uneven world, he made every effort to provide certainty. This is what she can think of, the most heroic thing.

The first half of our lives and the second half of our lives will live in completely different order and game rules. The familiar paths, planning and growth methods will become unfamiliar and turbulent.

As Zwigg said, "Today, between our yesterday and the day before yesterday, all the bridges were broken."

There is no ready answer to refer to, we need to find the answer in severe changes.

The following is the essence of the speech (the full text is 9200 words, the reading takes 23 minutes).

When the US hegemony is no longer stable

This issue, the famous political scientist Gilping and the economist Kingsirberg had a wonderful description. They named the global state of the past few decades, called "hegemony stable".

After World War II, the United States established a set of international order led by itself.

From the end of the Cold War in 1991, before the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008, the United States was unique and was in an absolute hegemony. Because of the absolute hegemony, the United States was enthusiastic about maintaining global order during this period, and it also received a huge return from order.

China has also risen at this stage, which has led to the development of the world economy.

There is a period of super stability and prosperity worldwide, which is the "hegemony stability period" that Kim Delberg and Gilping said.

After 2000, a change in the world is called "China regulating the global".

This sentence sounds proud, but it is actually a simple fact: at that time, China had a huge volume, not only the volume was large, but also the growth rate was high. Therefore, every move will affect the global economy:

China's expansion, the global economy is up; China's contraction, and the global economy falls.

Data is hard to lie.

From 1991 to 2017, the ratio of the strength of China and the United States changed a lot.

In 1991, China accounted for 6.2%of the total US GDP, and it could be ignored. By 2017, this number was 63%.

In 1991, China's industrial added value was 9.7%of the United States. By 2017, this number became 136.6%.

The logic behind these data, as in the "Hub", said that China's "oversized" has changed the economic order of the world.

A chess piece grows into a volume that can be left and right, and the chess game itself will experience changes.

Since 1991, the formation of a global single -pole pattern is developing in multi -pole.

The so -called multi -pole means that the power balance of power, changing the rules of the game is no longer so easy.

In other words, as the hegemon of the single world, will you be satisfied with the multi -pole structure?

No, this is basic humanity.

The premise of hegemony stability is hegemony. When hegemony is challenged, stability will also be challenged.

In fact, "order" is a delicate balance in the game of human society. Once this balance is broken, it will continue to expand like a crack on the ice surface. Once the impact of external forces is impacted, the ice surface may crack.

From 2018 to 2022, we have come to the big era from a young age.

All the changes we feel are actually from the shock of this great era.

Just like Luo Zhenyu's opening of the New Year's Eve speech in 2018, "In the past, changes may be only part of life; now, changes may become life itself."

This is an era of island chain.

The world is no longer flat, but there is no island in the world.

If the competition game between sovereignty countries is the edge of sharp islands, then global trade, financial markets, industrial division of labor and information flow are dense chains, which links the world into a complex organic body.

As long as the chain is affected, any wound of any big country will make people from other regions feel pain.

However, because of the imbalance of order, the island dog teeth are different, and the pain will constantly feel the pain.

For this island chain structure, everyone launchs the whole body, but the examples that are constantly moving, especially in 2022:

Saudi Arabia buys Russia's oil and sells it to the United States; because of energy pressure, Germany announced that it is to re -dig coal.

This will be an era of pain in the island chain.

The second conclusion is that the external environment cannot collapse China.

This picture is called "Global Nebula Map of inflation".

China's inflation level is relatively stable (maintained at a level of 2.5%). On the one hand, there is a reasons for economic downturn. On the other hand, it is indeed because of strong manufacturing capabilities in China. Even in the epidemic, we will find that the elasticity of Chinese production is really sufficient.

Fast recovery, fast adjustment, the industrial chain has sufficient length and thickness.

From our export data, we can see that if there is no Chinese production capacity, global inflation will have another step.

From here, I really feel the toughness of China's economy.

Our oversized scale, our advantage in trade and production, allows China to be not a variable in the American chessboard, but an independent variable in the world chess game.

We have the ability and potential of changing the chess game.

Therefore, in the era of island chain, it has a natural advantage on a giant island.

However, on the other hand, it is also stress.

In the small era of globalization, the world is a goal -growth, and China's growth before is in line with the interests of the United States. The most important thing is that our generations, entrepreneurs, and investors have grown up under this global growth trend.

But now this trend is gone, the problems encountered are new problems. Confusion, confusion, and chaos will become a normal state.

But modern economies, the financial market itself is the product of expected, and the expected chaos will bring more confusion.

Therefore, every step we need to make the right choice. This does make more challenges to everyone.

The country must make the right choice, and our own individuals must also make the right choice.

Gold, government bonds, cash, or safety assets?

In 2022, it is not so easy to choose a right choice.

Eat with two doctoral doctors in April. They sat down and told me that the mortgage was returned in advance.

The boy said, "Now the uncertainty is too great, the two children in the family. It is difficult for me to imagine what to do at home if I am not good or unemployed. I reduce the debt rate a little."

Girls feel that the environment is getting more and more difficult, and worrying about the failure of her husband's entrepreneurial, it is better to plan.

Both are high students of Peking University Guanghua Finance Department. Naturally, I don't understand "leverage."

I just feel that "the worst situation is needed to do a plan".

Doctorate in finance is repaying loans in advance, and more people are grabbing their own financial management.

The 3%interest -oriented 3 -year deposit bills have long been "sold out" for a long time. Not only the old lady grabbed, but the young people also grabbed. In addition to large deposit orders, savings government bonds must also be grabbed.

In a word, all products that are "capital protection" are fragrant.

The sense of security became the most lacking product in 2022. Safe, this is the keyword of 2022.

From the perspective of the capital market, this means that the global demand for "security assets" has risen rapidly.

If you go to any financial advisor this year, there will be a suggestion of "increasing the allocation of security assets".

If you want to ask what security assets are equipped, it is likely to say gold, government bonds, and cash.

But now the question is. In 2022, is gold, government bonds, and cash really safe?

For example, national debt. This year, Sri Lanka, Turkey, and Brazil were chaotic into a pot of porridge. After the Russian and Ukraine conflict, Europe was implicated. Italy and Spain's fiscal deficit were already astronomical, and national credit was also on the edge of bankruptcy. Where is the safety.

"The safest assets in the world", what about US Treasury bonds? Since March, the United States and allies have directly frozen Russia's more than $ 300 billion of foreign exchange reserves. If you are Russians, you may not feel safe.

The two countries have evils, and money is unlucky.

One of the characteristics of the big era is that the national friction conflicts are frequent, so which national debt is "security assets", which is really full of variables for investors in different countries.

Then get cash directly, isn't Wall Street "cash king"?

Sorry, on the top of 2022, there was a sword of Damores called "inflation".

9.1%, 9.4%, this is the number of inflation in the United States and the United Kingdom in June.

In this way, a retired couple saved 300,000 for a lifetime, and it would become 200,000 after 3 years; if it saved 3 million, it would become 2 million.

Inflation means that the purchase power in the hand is getting lower and lower.

In the era of high inflation, cash is not a king, but a thief, it will steal your cash.

In 2022, the national game conflicts, the number of digital power has risen, and inflation is aggressive. Treasury bonds, gold, and cash have their own troubles.

But we still need a "hiding hole".

In fact, the purpose of most people's pursuit of asset security is for expenditure safety:

"There is a baby at home. In case of revenue, there are more places where the baby uses money; in case of career risk in the future, the expenses of the family still have to be guaranteed ..."

In terms of financial language, it is hoping to smooth the future cash flow expenditure.

In fact, 99%of our ordinary people want to pursue, but that's it.

In an uncertain future, give life some certainty.

Everyone is different, the family structure is different, and the future expenditure is definitely different. But one thing is certain, that is, we hope that our quality of life will not have too much twists and turns.

Therefore, "do not do the asset allocation decisions of personal families, and it should be done from the goal of expenditure safety in the future."

What changes will our expenditure structure change?

At the age of 30, the child is just born, and your parents are helping to see the child. You are hesitant to fight for a second child.

At the age of 40, his career is rising, the child is 10 years old. In a few years, you have to consider going to college.

At the age of 50, the child has just graduated from college. He has to think about buying a house. The parents are still alive, but they feel that they are not as good as before.

Regardless of the age stage and which city, carefully calculate, the future rigid expenditure faces is the three categories:

House, education, medical care.

What are the characteristics of Chinese society in the next ten years?

Growth mode: from manufacturing to service

National goal: national rejuvenation, common prosperity

Constitutional conditions: aging aging, large population base, low per capita income

First of all, like the European and American society in the 1970s and 1980s, it enters the service industry, so the premium of the service will be much higher than the average inflation level. The national goal is national rejuvenation, common prosperity -think of many things in 2021, rectify teaching and cultivation, suppress real estate, and medical collection, etc., we will understand that in public policy, we choose the British and Japanese road roads Essence

This sentence means that the future education and medical expenditure of an ordinary family will be at a relatively mild level.

The safety of family expenditures is basic guarantee.

However, there are basic guarantees to look at the "constraints".

my country's aging will reach 25%at about 2030. In other words, about 300 million of the 1.4 billion population is more than 60 years old. And what about our per capita income? They are 1/3 of Japan and 1/4 of the UK.

So I really cannot ask us for public medical and education standards in Japan and the United Kingdom.

What my country can provide is a very basic medical and educational services, otherwise the finance cannot be affordable at all.

In addition, due to close medical care, education and local finances, the differences in China's regional economy will be more reflected in medical and education.

Well, now, the expenditure of a middle -class family has a very different combination choice.

If it is just a foundation standard, the safety of expenditure is guaranteed and will not face much expenditure fluctuations.

But if you want to be high, the expenditure fluctuations will be very large.

For example, residents in a third- and fourth -tier cities want children to be educated in front lines?

The parents and parents are sick, but all possible, do you want to try your best to try your expensive new medicine and instruments in exchange for the first -line vitality?

Also, do you want your child to study abroad, or do you have no such demand?

In the future, these basic public medical and basic public education service premiums will exist for a long time and will even become higher premiums. This premium may be several times or more.

In the final analysis, what is expenditure is safe and what is safe assets, all reflected in the end are values.

Is Chinese real estate still safe assets?

When it comes to values, we must@说 说.

In fact, the concept of security assets should be dynamic.

Before 2013, Chinese real estate was a safe asset.

Give a number: from 2000 to 2013, the average annual return rate of housing prices in China was 6.04%, of which the average annualized return rate of housing prices in first -tier cities was 13.1%, exceeding the same period of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index, CSI 300, and Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 various indexes And all commodities such as gold and crude oil.

From 2013-2021, real estate in large cities in China is a safe asset, and small cities are not safe assets.

Why is the house in small cities no longer a safe asset after 2013?

Because after 2013, the population began to influx from small towns to big cities. Except for the north and deep, the first -class population of all cities is the provincial capital. During this period, 60 million people flowed into large cities, and 160 small cities had shrinking population, so house prices were differentiated.

What about 2022? Is Chinese real estate still safe assets?

Look at two numbers first:

The first is the urbanization rate: at the end of 2021, it was 64.72%, and the developed countries were only 80%. In other words, the space for rural population to move towards the city was small.

The second is the population structure: China ’s main force of fertility at the age of 25-39 has severely decreased by more than 20%. Like the global laws, with the improvement of education and income, young people's willingness to fertility has also declined.

The third is housing self -rate: China ’s real estate self -rate has reached more than 70%in 2022. This data is already higher than most countries around the world.

The first conclusion: After 2022, overall Chinese real estate, even some large cities, can no longer be regarded as high -quality safety assets.

But this sentence cannot be said too absolute.

For example, some cities still have a large number of young people flowing in, and these cities often have a low rate of housing self -rate (for example, the level of housing self -rate in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangdong in 2020 is 56.6%, 59.0%, and 55.9%. The average level is more than 10%, Shenzhen is lower, only 30%), and the demand is still very strong.

Therefore, the second conclusion is that the property of a few cities still has the nature of safety assets.

As for which cities are?

The Chinese urban real estate is divided into as much as possible, you can buy it, you can buy or not buy it, and you don't buy four categories:

In 2022, there are two different logic of real estate:

The first is the logic of growth. The increasing uncertainty is increasing, which is unfavorable for real estate. So should wait.

The second is the logic of inflation. Real estate is anti -inflation logic. This logic is beneficial to real estate, and after the increased uncertainty is increased, there are only a few asset preservation channels for ordinary people, so it is also beneficial to the house.

Therefore, it is impossible to have a unified answer if the real estate is a safe asset.

Each family must make different judgments based on their own cities, age, even academic qualifications and cognition.

You can follow one principle: just need to buy, not just need to wait.

Two ideas of family asset allocation

Idea 1: bottom -line thinking, diverse dispersion

For example, parents, retirement, and living in second- and third -tier cities, their future expenditure structure fluctuates very small. But everyone knows that there are countless pits on financial management waiting for them. Therefore, what parents need to guarantee the bottom. As for the assets bring, it is not important for them. In this case, buying a house is still a safe asset for parents for parents.

This is actually the first idea of ​​the future asset allocation: bottom -line thinking.

The so -called bottom line is that some assets need to be used to protect the bottom, and cannot be weighed too much in income.

Another manifestation of the bottom -line thinking is to diversify. Asset categories, currency, investment period, and investment methods need to be diversified.

Previously, in the small era of deterministic trend, the "shuttle trend" was indeed often better than diversified.

One of the main features of the major era is that there is no determined long -term trend, and any trend may be crushed repeatedly.

Without a trend, the eggs must not be placed in a basket. Any most secure investment today may also become the most dangerous speculative tomorrow.

Therefore, this era "not put an egg on a basket" is a strategy that is closely related to future family expenditure.

Different expectations in the future determine that asset demands are completely different.

If you are only 30, 40 years old this year, your child is 3 years old and 4 years old. If you are still full of ambition, then you can't stop at the bottom line. You still have a long uncertainty to surpass, and you need to find a higher return asset.

Idea 2: Polarization configuration, bearing risks

The meaning of polarization is that it is opposed to the guarantee, and it is necessary to have a higher tolerance for high valuation and high fluctuations.

This is exactly the poles with the bottom line.

The bottom line thinking is the lower limit, and the polarization configuration is the upper limit.

To find the upper limit, you need to find the fastest -growing high -quality assets.

But we are facing an era of low interest rates and low growth, which means that the trend of asset prices is completely different from before.

Nowadays, there are more and more high -priced stocks in the market, and the historical high in stock prices can always be easily broken.

However, the frequent appearance of high -priced stocks is not groundless, and it is closely connected to our low interest rates and low growth.

First, low interest rates will push high asset valuations and increase market fluctuations.

why?

A company now has a cash flow of 1 billion. If the interest rate is 10%and the growth rate is 5%, what is the corporate valuation?

Company valuation = current cash flow/(discount rate-growth rate).

According to Gordon model, valuation = 1 billion/(10%-5%) = 20 billion.

The interest rate now drops to 7%. The growth rate is unchanged, and the valuation of this enterprise has become, 1 billion/(7%-5%) = 50 billion.

Therefore, the lower the interest rate, the higher the asset valuation.

In addition to high valuations, ultra -low interest rates will increase asset prices. This principle is well understood. The smaller the denominator, the more small changes on the denominator will cause the score value to fluctuate violently.

After 2008, the global economy has been lacking in growth momentum, hovering at a level of about 3%.

Therefore, high -growth projects in the market are very short.

In order to stimulate the economy, various countries have lowered interest rates, implemented quantitative easing, and a large amount of funds have poured into the market. In addition, after decades of peaceful age, a large amount of wealth has been accumulated. The funds on the market are no longer lacking, and the price and interest rates are lower.

This is why the capital market is constantly high valuation and high fluctuations.

Funding is naturally "suspected of the poor and loves the rich", scrambling to run on those very scarce high -growth projects, leading to polarization in the market.

This is the reality: the background of low growth, low interest rates, and non -stable state, asset prices will inevitably be highly differentiated, high valuation, high fluctuations.

If you want to find a high -growth opportunity, you must bear the risk and pay a higher risk premium.

To sum up, the asset allocation of this era requires two unified ideas:

The bottom line of thinking, diversified & polarization configuration, and bearing risks.

For a young middle -class family, in the big age of fluctuations, it is just a boat in the ocean:

So you need to guarantee the bottom, as if the ship must have a cockpit stone. Waldles from the wind and waves, turned over the boat.

But it is not like a seventh or eighty -year -old person, the ship is about to go shore. You still have a long way to go. This road is extremely uncertain. You need to have enough motivation to run forward, so you have to find a high growth momentum.

So, where is the motivation?

In such an environment, what companies need to hedge the rules of rapid iteration: quasi, small, stable, and fast.

Personal career choice: What is a good career in the future?

Future Trends 1: Small and beautiful & zero -working economy in the organizational structure

This era is suitable for small troops to fight, with high profits and high time elasticity.

This is a trend of future society:

The organizational structure is small and beautiful, and hierarchical employment is replaced by parallel collaboration.

In recent years, the talents of 4A companies have withered, but most of the creative directors who are out of their teams have lived well with the small team.

Therefore, some people in the industry laughed and said that "a whale falls and everything is born."

This is not the unique phenomenon of the advertising industry. The service industry of high -manpower capital, such as game design, software architecture, and knowledge dissemination, is very obvious.

Such changes started around 2012 and 2013.

Why does this change?

In the past, large enterprises mainly helped individuals solve information asymmetry and complete collaboration. For example, it is difficult for a layman to judge who is good and bad, so when social information is asymmetric, it is difficult for an advertising copy.

By 2012 and 2013, changes occurred.

Social media came out, and information asymmetric decreased. Advertising copywriting can go directly to Douyin to find Mantan Brother Peking University, anyway, others also learn from him.

Collaboration is no longer a problem, nailing, corporate WeChat, flying books ... These tools are becoming more and more complete, and a large number of work can be completed on the platform.

This means that the personal attachment of individuals to traditional -level enterprises is getting smaller and smaller.

In the first half of 2022, the industrial and commercial and tax departments had a data. The service industry with more than a hundred people had a high shutdown ratio because the cost of manpower could not be controlled.

China has entered a society where the service industry is dominated, and in the future, it will further change into the service industry of high human capital.

Therefore, more and more corporate organizational structure tends to be "small and beautiful", and work is carried out through parallel collaboration.

Understanding this is particularly important for young people's career, because the small and beautiful organizational structure corresponds to the "zero -working economy".

To this day, Chinese society still feels that the zero worker economy is non -mainstream. Temporary workers and part -time jobs are very unreliable.

But looking at the world, the zero -labor economy is already a trend.

UPWork, a well -known American agency, predicts that 90.1 million will be reached in 2028, accounting for more than 60%of the US labor population. In other words, 60%of Americans are "zero -time workers" 6 years later.

The zero -working economy in the United States is not "poor employment situation, and it has to be done", but a change brought by digital technology.

It is because digital technology has turned the entire society into a large Lego theme park. Small and beautiful organizations are like countless Lego bricks that can be quickly disassembled and re -assembled.

This is the essence of zero -labor economy, modular and fragmented.

Future Trends 2: Skills are more important than professional

Traditional positions are melted and replaced by skills.

Speaking of skills, a phenomenon is observed this year.

On the one hand, this year is called "the most difficult employment season", and on the other hand, many companies cannot find "suitable people".

Why?

Because job seekers often have universal "professional knowledge", what companies want are indispensable "work skills".

The three major skills in the future: creativity, social wisdom and craftsmanship.

These three skills correspond to different work skills:

Creative, including analytical ability, creative thinking ability, and understanding and expression ability.

Social intelligence, including interpersonal fusion ability, communication ability, leadership, etc.

For example, blockchain engineers are classified as "creative occupations", with average salary, 18,181 yuan. The cities with the best prospects for career development are Beijing, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou.

In the same way, the supply chain manager is classified as a "social intelligent occupation", with an average salary of 12,862 yuan. The city with the best development prospects is Hangzhou.

Firefighters are classified as a "craft" occupation with a salary level of 6013 yuan. The city with the best development prospects is Chengdu.

Many people unexpectedly, in our database, agricultural researchers are creative occupations.

The creative index of agricultural researchers is 10 points higher than the occupations such as screenwriters and new media operations, and the salary is 3,000 or four thousand, and the average salary is more than 11,000 yuan. Moreover, there are relatively wide distribution in urban distribution. There are good career development spaces such as Nanning and Zibo in Shandong.

It sounds strange, and it is not strange to look at the data again.

Regardless of the fundamentals of the industry or the national policy, agricultural -related fields have great advantages.

In the past 20 years, which industry's labor productivity has increased the fastest? It is agriculture.

Especially in the past 10 years, the average annual growth rate of agricultural labor productivity is 12.5%, which is 4 or 5 percentage points higher than the industry and service industry.

In addition, China is a major agricultural country, but it is by no means an agricultural power.

We are the world's largest vegetable producer, but almost all vegetables and fruits are imported.

We are the world's largest pig breeding country. Pork consumption ranks first in the world, which is larger than the total consumption in the next nine countries.

Now geopolitical tension, but we ca n’t say that the game of big powers, we do n’t eat vegetables or meat. So agricultural security rose to the national strategy.

This means that a large number of funds and resources are influxed, and the prospects of career development are optimistic.

At the same time, the Chinese always feel that the agriculture is not "advanced". Compared with the same grade universities, the score line of Agricultural University is an absolute depression. The same score, the school and the city may be up to the steps. This step may be the steps of a lifetime.

In addition, veterinarians and pet doctors are also good. The average growth rate of salary in five years is as high as 69%.

It is also found that the cost -effectiveness of basic disciplines is relatively high.

In the past few years, the subjects of finance and law were hot, but in fact, the financial and legal industries, the artificial intelligence replacement index was quite high. Why?

Because this profession is a pyramid distribution. A large number of underlying jobs are tellers and secrets, and the skills of these positions are exactly the most likely "coded skills" that are the most likely to replace artificial intelligence.

In these large industries, only investment banks, fund management, or big -name lawyers are creative work. But the position of the pyramid tip is very limited. Compared with these disciplines, the Chinese Department and Mathematics Department provides basic skills, but it is easy to be combined into the puzzle of the social workplace.

As mentioned earlier, digital technology has turned the entire society into a large Lego theme park. The more basic disciplines, the higher the probability of stuck in Lego Blocks.

In addition to cost -effective occupations and majors, there are also some cost -effective cities.

In terms of job search, the choice of cities is more important.

Because the industry is not evenly distributed, but is distributed. But now the threshold is too high in the north, and Chang'an lives.

Relatively speaking, is there a cities with high cost performance?

Among the four front lines, Guangzhou is more cost -effective.

Guangzhou is the number one in the country in most high salary "social wisdom" occupations, especially marketing positions.

In the core city of the second line, Nanjing is an underestimated city.

In several highest -quality creative occupations, Nanjing ranks very high, such as biomedical researchers, ranking third in the country, and fourth in the nationwide of integrated circuit engineers.

From the severely underestimated agriculture, to the basic discipline with more employment, from a low -threshold and high -income occupation to high -cost cities, this is a highlight in the process of digging the data this year.

The market data is difficult to lie. We do see a lot of real anxiety -the decline in salary is decreasing, the position is decreasing, and the decline in big cities is more serious.

But it was still in the phrase every black cloud.

When Wuyun came, complaining to crying was useless, we had to work hard to find the Phnom Penh.

We did enter another era.

I used to live a global small era. With the stability of hegemony, we entered an era of island chain.

The whole body of each country moved the whole body, but the competition of "digital currency order" superimposed in finance and technology was like a battlefield without smoke, and it was everywhere.

This also means that we need to rethink the designs of order, growth paths, and many designs for life planning. It also allows ordinary families, individuals, business owners, and investors to be involved in the ubiquitous shock.

Therefore, in the era of island chain, how to find wealth and occupations in uncertainty is a proposition that each individual must face.

There are opportunities for small times for hours, and there is a big time in the Big Age.

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