Oil price adjustment tonight, or enter the "10 yuan" era

At 24:00 on June 14 this Tuesday, a new round of domestic oil -based price -adjustment windows were ushered in. According to the data of Zhuochuang data from the commodity information agency, as of the close of June 10, the reference rate of reference on crude oil in the ninth working day in China was 6.91%. 95#gasoline raised 0.28 yuan, 0#diesel raised 0.29 yuan, which means that after this round of adjustment, most regions of domestic regions will break through or approach 10 yuan/liter. The reporter noticed that due to high oil prices, the people's green travel increased.

The price of refined oil products may welcome the tenth rise this year

At 24 o'clock on June 14, a new round of domestic oil -based price -adjustment window was ushered in. The industry generally believes that no matter whether the crude oil is rising or down or not, the raising of the retail price of refined oil is already "nail on the board." According to the statistics of Zhuochuang Information, after the price limit was raised, the domestic refined oil market has gone through 11 price adjustment windows, of which 10 times have been raised and 1st. Based on the current amplitude, standard steam and diesel have increased by 2670 yuan/ton, 2585 yuan/ton, and the price is 92#gasoline 2.1 yuan, 0#diesel 2.2 yuan, and consumers have increased oil costs.

Zhuo Chuang Information analyzed that the rate of crude oil changes in this pricing cycle began. First, the US reserve library continues to decline, and the commercial tank has no significant accumulation for the time being, and the fundamentals are strong. The second is that after entering the peak of oil use in summer, the amount of crude oil has maintained a high level. In the low inventory pattern, and the future demand is better, the center of gravity of crude oil prices has moved up. As a result, the domestic reference crude oil change rate continues to operate within the scope.

Citizen green travel increase

"As domestic oil prices rise to high, consumers' conflict has gradually increased, and people's green travel has increased." Wang Shan, an analyst at Jin Lianchuang Energy, believes that at the same time, domestic automobile sales have fallen sharply and the outbreak of new energy vehicles sales explosion The continuous increase in the proportion of private consumption is also reflected to a certain extent that consumers' considerations and choices of fuel car travel costs.

The reporter also noticed that due to high oil prices, more people choose to buy new energy vehicles. In May, the retail sales of new energy passenger car increased by 90 % year -on -year. According to data released by the Federation of Federation, the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles in May reached 421,000, an increase of 111.5%year -on -year, and a month -on -month increase of 49.8%. From January to May, new energy passenger cars were 1.712 million domestic retail, an increase of 119.5%year -on -year.

"Under the high oil price, if it is not very hurry, I will also choose to take the subway or bus." Ms. Wang said frankly, "At the same time, I feel that the carpooling business is on fire now. As soon as I open the travel software, there is a special carpooling. , Speed ​​Carpooling and other choices, which is much cheaper than I ride alone. For example, the express car costs 18 yuan, special carpooling only needs 9 yuan, and only 12 yuan for high -speed carpooling. "

Reporters such as good oil and gas and other sectors noticed that due to the rise in oil and gas prices, multiple A -share sections were also driven. According to the Wind platform data, as of the closing of the 13th, the oil chemical, petroleum and gas, energy equipment and other sectors increased by more than 15%within 20 days.

Everbright Securities pointed out that the era of high oil prices has come, and it is recommended to pay attention to the upstream and oil service sectors benefiting from rising oil and gas prices; coal chemical industries and light hydrocarbon cracking sectors with certain cost advantages under high oil prices; Refining section. The rise in oil prices facilitates oil petrochemical and new energy sectors, but it has formed a sharp air on the aviation and logistics industries. "Due to the fierce competition in the aviation industry, it is difficult to pass all the costs that increase oil prices and increase all." A research analyst in the field of transportation in the field of transportation said that after the oil price increases, it has a certain impact on the aviation industry.

International crude oil futures prices fluctuate upward

Recently, the price of international crude oil futures has shocked upward trend, and there are insufficient supply of concerns and demand to increase the high level that supports international oil prices at $ 120 per barrel.

How to develop oil prices in the future? "At present in the high season of crude oil traditional consumption season and high incidence of extreme weather such as hurricanes. There is a big trend of crude oil again to impact new highs, and it does not rule out the possibility of breaking through $ 130/barrel." Wang Shan said.

It is worth noting that according to the current price adjustment mechanism, when the price of crude oil at the international market of domestic refined oil prices is higher than $ 130 per barrel, the highest retail price of auto and diesel will not be mentioned or raised.

In addition, a number of institutions raised the expectations of international oil prices, of which Goldman Sachs stated in the early June report that oil prices need to rise further, so as to restore unsustainable low -level global oil inventory. The bank is expected to be $ 140/barrel in the third quarter (previously expected to be $ 125/barrel), and the fourth quarter was $ 130/barrel (previously expected to be $ 125/barrel).

Cinda Securities also stated that in 2022, international oil prices ushered in the upward turning point. In the medium and long term, oil prices will maintain a high level for a long time. Energy resources in the next 3 to 5 years are expected to be in the upward period of prosperity.

(Source: Guangzhou Daily reporter Zhang Lu)

【Edit: Jinxin】

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