After the tenth rose during the year, oil prices may be downgraded tonight!

After the tenth rose of the year, domestic refined oil prices finally welcomed the second time the year.

The reporter learned from a number of social monitoring agencies that a new round of domestic oil retail price limit window will be opened at 24:00 on June 28. From the current rate of changes in crude oil, it is expected that the price of gasoline and diesel prices will be reduced by more than 300 yuan. At about /ton, according to the computing of ordinary private cars of 50L of the fuel tank, the full box of oil is saved by about 13 yuan.

Since June 14, the Fed and some European Central Bank announced their concerns about the global economic recession after the interest rate hike. At the same time, OPEC+Alliance announced that it would continue to increase production by 648,000 barrels in August to relieve the soaring oil prices and inflation pressure. The price is under pressure, but the market's concerns about global supply tensions still exist, and it is reported that it is difficult for the OPEC alliance to achieve this output target. Oil prices form the bottom support. Flow.

As of the closing of June 24, the price of light crude oil futures delivered by the New York Commodity Exchange in August received $ 107.62 per barrel, and the price of London Brent crude oil futures at the delivery in August closed at $ 113.12 per barrel.

Affected by the decline in international oil prices, a package of crude oil prices change most of the time in the negative interval, and the negative range has expanded. According to the calculation of Zhuochuang Information Data Monitoring model, the reference rate of reference on crude oil in the ninth working day in China is -5.33%. It is expected that the price of gasoline and diesel prices will be reduced by 295 yuan/ton. Develop 0.23 yuan, 0.24 yuan, and 0.25 yuan, respectively.

"The international crude oil tail disk runs widely, and the long and short factors are intertwined with each other. The trend is still facing uncertainty. However, the change rate of crude oil near the price adjustment day cannot reverse the volatility range. It is expected that the retail price of the refined oil products will open the window as scheduled. Zhuo Chuang Information Analyst Xu Lei judged.

The change rate of crude oil calculated by Jinlianchuang was -5.49%, and the corresponding domestic gasoline and diesel retail price limit should be reduced by 310 yuan/ton. "Affected by inertia, this round of raising is expected to be widened. It is expected that the reduction of gasoline and diesel will be 330 yuan/ton, the 92 -No. 92 gasoline is equivalent to 0.26 yuan/liter, and diesel is reduced by 0.28 yuan/liter." Analyst Luo Meijuan said.

Since the beginning of this year, the domestic oil retail price limit has undergone 11 price windows, which is 10 rose and 1 fall. After the rise and fall, the cumulative domestic auto and diesel prices have increased by 2720 yuan and 2620 yuan, respectively. The No. 92 gasoline has entered the "9 yuan era", and No. 95 gasoline in some areas enters the "10 yuan era".

After the redeem of the downgrade on June 28, the cost of oil use will usher in a moderate reduction. Luo Meijuan calculated the account and calculated according to the general private car of the fuel tank 50L, and the full box of oil was saved by about 13 yuan. Based on the calculation of 40 liters per 100 kilometers, it saved about 11.2 yuan per 100 kilometers.

What is the next international oil price trend, and how to adjust the domestic refined oil prices?

In the opinion of Jin Lianchuang crude oil analysts, the crude oil market has triggered the empty switch, including many investment banks, which have also been emptied, which led to many plunge in the oil market in the past two weeks. However, there are also opposite opinions. Bank of America Merrillin still insists on singing more crude oil, thinking that even if the global economy has fallen into a decline, the average price of cloth oil will exceed $ 75 next year.

"From the perspective of the long -term contract of crude oil, the oil prices in the fourth quarter have fallen below $ 100/barrel, and next year will even fall below 90 US dollars/barrels. This shows that the market has a negative attitude towards the crude oil background." Inside, there will be a foundation process for oil prices, $ 100/barrel is a key price.

Luo Meijuan believes that the Federal Reserve and the world's major central banks focus on raising interest rates to bring about economic cooling emotions, but the market is currently in the peak demand season. Crude oil supply is not alleviated, so crude oil or maintaining a high shock trend. With the implementation of the retail price of this round of retail prices, a new round of retail price adjustment direction or maintaining a negative start.

Sichuan Observation (Source: Economic Reference News)

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