From chain reaction to metastasis: Understand the changes and constant changes in global supply chain reconstruction

Since the beginning of March, the epidemic caused by the new crown Omir Rong's mutant strain has shocked the Pearl River Delta and the Yangtze River Delta, which once exacerbated the supply chain crisis.

As an important economic center in China, the Pearl River Delta and the Yangtze River Delta are also the core nodes of the global industrial chain. It assumes the function of the "world factory", especially in the world's electronics and automobile manufacturing industries. When the most developed region in China presses the suspension key, the road logistics is interrupted, and the operation speed of the port slows down, global economic pain is inevitable.

The chain reaction of the supply chain

The earliest affected by the electronics industry, Shenzhen announced the closed management for a week on the evening of March 13, which led to the suspension of dozens of Taiwanese -funded manufacturing companies, including Foxconn, Xinxing Electronics, Qi Li, Shengsheng, Junbao, etc.

The destructive power of Shanghai closed management is even more destructive, and the Shanghai -Nanjing high -speed sealing measures seriously affect logistics transportation. As of April 11, a total of 161 Taiwan -funded enterprises in Suzhou Kunshan and other places have been suspended. Among them, 41 electronic parts companies, 16 motor machinery companies, 15 computer and peripheral equipment companies, and 10 photoelectric companies.

A considerable part of these companies belong to the Apple supply chain, such as harmony. Two factories located in Shanghai and Kunshan temporarily closed the factory for Apple's foundry iPhone mobile phones, which will cause the product delivery period to postpone it. Guangda and Renbao also announced the suspension of production. Apple said that sales in the quarter may suffer up to $ 8 billion in losses.

The car supply chain has a wider impact. As the most complicated and precise industrial chain system, the automobile supply chain is long, the global layout, the parts inventory is low, and the collaborative requirements are high.

As early as March, the five major vehicle manufacturers of FAW Group had a plan to suspend production for 4 days due to the prevention and control of the epidemic, which caused 48,000 output losses. In mid -April, a number of entrepreneurs have expressed concerns about the discontinuation of the supply chain of the automobile supply chain. Because the Yangtze River Delta with Shanghai as the core is the main supply area of ​​the core parts of the automobile, Bosch, ZF, Electric, Sherler, Mainland, Fergia and other top 100 companies in the world Base or production factories, in the fields of engines, batteries, raw materials, have at least 600 companies in Shanghai and its surrounding areas.

From the vehicle to the chip, from parts to battery equipment, from sensors to industrial robots, when the normal production activities of these first -level parts suppliers are severely restricted, and the logistics system is interrupted, car companies are basically stagnant. Beginning at the end of March, Tesla, Weilai, SAIC Volkswagen, etc. have announced the suspension of the vehicle production.

In addition, the Japanese automobile industry is also affected. Subaru, Mitsubishi, Mazda, Toyota, and Honda all stopped working to reduce production to varying degrees due to the interruption of parts and components from Shanghai. In this context, WTO said in a report that the de -globalization of the supply chain has been staged in various industries.

Three types of metastasis

China is the beneficiary of global dividends. Since the reform and opening up, Hong Kong and Taiwanese businessmen have entered the Pearl River Delta and the Yangtze River Delta as a pioneer of global capital, developing labor -intensive manufacturing industries, and helping China to connect the world market. China rely on abundant labor resources to build a world factory along the global value chain, which is the economic foundation of the "Chinese model".

However, since the global financial crisis in 2008, China's export economy has begun to encounter the growth dilemma experienced by the four small dragons of East Asia. Factors such as weak European and American market demand and rising labor costs have been promoted. The "transfer" strategy attempts to build a domestic version of the supply chain "Goose Formation Model" in the coast and inland areas.

The actual situation shows that the industrial relocation driven by multinational buyers is the main way for the adjustment of light industry supply chain such as textiles and clothing. These low -value -added industries are very sensitive to production costs, and their technical complexity is not high, and it is relatively easy to transfer.

After years of development, Southeast Asia has formed a basic supply chain in the fields of clothing, shoes, hats, luggage and other fields. In particular, Vietnam has become the second largest source of export shoes and clothing in the United States. Nike's more than 50%of shoe products and 30%of clothing products are founded by the Vietnamese factory.

The transfer trend of electronic product supply chain has also been obvious in recent years, but it is no longer limited to cost drivers, but is affected by multiple factors such as the consumer market, the Sino -US trade war, and the risk of decentralized supply chain.

Taking Apple mobile phones as an example, its China -centered supply chain is "one divide into two" trend: in the Chinese market, except for core components, all localized production; markets outside China rely on Southeast Asia and South Asia New supplier. In 2020, Apple has begun to produce AIRPODS in Vietnam. Samsung's actions earlier. Since 2009, Samsung has invested in the construction of eight factories and a R & D center in Vietnam. The annual output of smartphones alone is 150 million units, accounting for about half of the global total output.

That is to say, before the new crown epidemic occurred, a new round of global industrial transfer with labor -intensive and low -end manufacturing industries as the main character had begun. Despite the influence of trade protectionism, the driving factor behind it is mainly economic level: In order to deal with market competition pressure, multinational companies must "compete one by one" and continue to seek low -factor cost production bases.

But this does not mean the structural adjustment of the supply chain. Although the manufacturing supply chain is transferred to Southeast Asian countries, although competitive pressure on China, there are more complementary relationships between the two sides. For example, many parts and raw materials in Vietnam are imported from China, and after processing in Vietnam, they export to Europe and the United States. However, since the United States launched a trade war in China, global free trade has been challenged, and the supply chain has begun to be disturbed by varying degrees.

In the field of high -end technology, the technological progress of Chinese companies has been severely hindered. In terms of low -end industries, the decoupling strategy implemented by the Biden government is guiding its supply chain to transfer to China, which is a structural challenge facing China's manufacturing industry.

In addition, the continuity of the new crown epidemic has also brought greater uncertainty to the supply chain, causing concerns about foreign investors and even the government. For example, the European Union announced a plan to rebuild European industrial operations in 2021, which aims to reduce dependence on suppliers except Europe.

The pressure from production costs, trade protection, labor rights, geopolitics, and new crown epidemic has made it difficult to maintain the stability and continuous growth of the supply chain.

The anchor point of the stable supply chain

Nevertheless, a questionnaire survey of 4,000 German processing enterprises with imported business with China, as well as wholesale and retailers, showed that 11%of the company relied on the company's subsidiaries in China, 54 %Of large companies rely on Chinese products directly, and 16%depend on local subsidiaries products. Especially in terms of raw materials, 65%of the raw materials for producing electric engines in Germany must be imported from China.

This shows that the advantages of China's supply chain still exist. After 30 years of development, China has a complete industrial manufacturing system, and the industrial agglomeration effect is obvious, and it is difficult to be replaced by other countries in a short period of time.

In the era of globalization, the logic of the development of supply chain is to reduce costs and improve efficiency. With the continuous impact of geopolitical and epidemic, although this logic is challenged, it still does not change its fundamental.

In this regard, China's convenient logistics transportation network and other infrastructure, as well as upgraded high -end manufacturing and new technical workers, can bring the impact of the rise in labor costs. Therefore, China must not only have confidence in its own advantages, but also strengthen the top -level design to "fix the chain" and "strong chain".

In response to the situation where possible global supply chains are more decentralized and even centralized, it is a necessary business decision to make adjustments in a timely manner, but it must be realized that China must also be a very large terminal market. The scale is still large, and the quality will continue to increase.

On the other hand, in response to the diversified supply chain needs, Chinese companies "go global" faster and better, and use the advantages of existing capital, talents, experience and other aspects to build their own multinational enterprises in emerging markets.

Another major advantage of China's supply chain is the green transformation. In the context of carbon peaks and carbon neutralization, the world of new energy batteries is obtained, and China's new energy battery has an absolute advantage in the world. The world, the upstream and downstream industrial chain resources are accelerated and integrated. Power batteries are the hearts of new energy vehicles. China's global competition in the automotive industry is already in the first position. With this as the center, it can consolidate and enhance the adhesion of the automotive supply chain to the Chinese market.

Under the target requirements of stabilizing the economic market, it is essential to ensure the normal operation of the manufacturing supply chain. Small and medium -sized enterprises that lack a certain end must be suspended, and restarting the supply chain cannot be achieved overnight, and it may take several months.

Therefore, it is necessary to comprehensively analyze the motivation of the supply chain reconstruction. It is necessary to see the motivation of internal economic transformation and policy adjustment, but also to be alert to the impact of external globalization.

In general, China's supply chain still has its own advantages. After years of industrial upgrading, the full -factor productivity has been significantly improved, and the national unified large market has accelerated the construction. These are two important anchor points for stable supply chains. On this basis, through active and effective measures to fix the chain, we can overcome the adverse effects of internal and external policy factors.

(The author is a doctor of sociology, Sociology, Sino -German Skills and Social Development Research Center of Jear University in Germany)

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