21 Investment Bank Research ｜ Lithium Electric Positive Electrical Materials Investment Book Investment, how can the industry dark horse kill the siege?

21st Century Business Herald reporter Peng Shuo Beijing report

In the context of the large explosion of the new energy vehicle industry, power batteries have become a "place for soldiers". Among them, the positive pole material has the most prominent impact on the performance of the battery, and it is also the largest part of the cost of battery raw materials. Closely.

Standing at the moment, the positive electrode materials are experiencing a new round of technical iteration and upgrading. Manganese phosphate iron lithium, sodium ion, full -length liquid flow, ultra -high nickel, and the industrialization of solid and semi -solid battery batteries are being launched one after another. In addition, whether the lithium iron phosphate battery is confirmed to win the three -yuan lithium battery, whether the solid battery will subvert the existing competition pattern of the industry in the future.

In mid -August, the R & D and manufacturer of Lithium Battery Materials Hubei Rongtong Hi -Tech Advanced Materials Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Rongtong Hi -Tech") completed over 5.284 billion yuan in round D round. , Xiaomi, GAC and other automotive industry capital, there are also large national -level funds such as the National Green Development Fund and the National Manufacturing Transformation and Upgrade Fund.

Rongtong Hi -Tech is one of the biggest "dark horses" in the lithium battery industry. "Three years, from 100 million to 100 billion to 10 billion, jumped at level ten each year." In 2019, Rongtong Hi -Tech positive pole material began to mass production, revenue in 2020 reached 100 million, revenue in 2021 was 1.04 billion, this year's pre -pre -pre -pre -year Estimated revenue of 11 billion yuan. He Zhonglin, chairman of Rongtong High -Tech, told reporters that the company's revenue is expected to reach 30 billion yuan next year. In the near future, it can be shortened with Hunan Yu.

As the industry's emerging helm, He Zhonglin has a keen perception of the industry's development route. He predicts that in the next 5 years, lithium iron phosphate will still occupy the mainstream market. "Within 5 years, the market share of the lithium iron phosphate in the power battery market will be 65%; The accounting rate will exceed 95%. "

As for other battery routes such as sodium ions, He Zhonglin believes that it is difficult to industrialization in the short term of sodium ion batteries. It is expected that it will explode around 2026-2027; the solid battery is difficult to achieve mass production within 8 years. As for the ternary lithium batteries and batteries, each has their own disadvantages. Because of the toxicity of the human body, the scarcity of the cobalt material for the human body, the ternary lithium battery is also difficult to become the mainstream direction.

In addition, for the guarantee problem caused by the upstream raw material of the upstream of the positive pole -lithium carbonate prices, Rongtong Hi -Tech also planned 350,000 tons of power battery recycling production lines. The shortage was plagued by the industry. According to the calculation of lithium carbonate production in various places in China, the price of lithium lithium carbonate was difficult to fall until the price of 100,000 yuan/ton before 2020.

Talk about "cross -border":

It is difficult for new players to break the existing competition pattern

The battery consists of four major materials, which are positive and negative. Electrolytic solution, diaphragm. The positive electrode material is the most important part of the four major materials, and it determines the energy density of the battery to a large extent. In addition, the cost of positive materials accounts for 1/3 of the cost of power battery, which is the highest in all links, and the power battery accounts for the power battery. About 1/4 of the vehicle cost.

Because of this, all lithium batteries are named after the positive electrode material, such as ternary batteries, lithium iron phosphate batteries, high nickel batteries, and so on. Similarly, under the air outlet, many cross -border players have emerged in the industry.

The 21st Century Business Herald reporters found that new players come from multiple industries: titanium pink, phosphorus chemical, and even real estate industry companies trying to enter the border cross -border. , Xingfa Group, Kinpu Titanium, etc.

Will a lot of new players stir up the existing competition pattern of the industry? At the same time as the market given the stock price to the new entry, investors are also trying to answer.

He Zhonglin stated that he was not optimistic about the entrance of the latecomers under the air outlet and gave two reasons: the positive pole from research and development to production time cycle is long, and it is likely that those who entered the game have no longer found out the industry. Secondly, the technical barriers of positive materials are deep, testing the research and development capabilities and management capabilities.

He Zhonglin introduced that from research and development to mass production, the cycle often takes 5 years or even longer. After mass production, the original industry companies have more technical precipitation, and the technical route may also move. It's hard to catch up.

As an example of the testing session, "the power battery that drives the rise of this industry. And the power battery light is one and a half years of verification cycle. The verification link is that the material is used in the battery. During discharge, the power vehicle usually measures 2,000 cycles, that is, 250 days, which is the most basic data. If it is 2500 times a year, it will pass. Generally speaking, we measure one year and a half years. It can end within one year. "He Zhonglin said.

The technical barrier is reflected in the positive electrode materials such as lithium iron phosphate as electrons are not chemical materials. He Zhonglin said that electronic materials are much higher than chemical materials for all aspects of manufacturing. Such as water control in the air, metal particles control, and dust control are all considered by the factory.

In addition, the technological advantages of cross -border companies their own industries are not obvious. For example, phosphate enterprises have raw materials -the manufacturing advantage of phosphate manufacturing to lithium iron phosphate, but He Zhonglin believes that there is no shortage of phosphate on the market. Essence He Zhonglin said that before 2015-2016 lithium carbonate manufacturers had a round of cross-border, but in the end they ended in failure. He Zhonglin said that after the former enterprise (Shanghai Zhongxing), which has acquired Rongtong Hi -Tech from Paineng Technology, first has experienced 6 years of technical accumulation, and then it took another 6 years to enter the main machine factory. The accumulation of accumulation into the process and factory design, this has the current integration of high -profile high -profile.

"In the traditional manufacturing industry and what we see these industries, they are basically dying in the air outlet. Just like climbing mountains, we have climbed 80%. At this time, you see gold on the mountain. Following the bottom of the mountain, basically you go to the top of the mountain. "He Zhonglin said.

Talk about the technical route:

The lithium iron phosphate route will be the mainstream within 5 years, and the solid -state battery will not be mass -produced within 8 years

In addition to the cross -border wave of the industry, the positive materials are also experiencing a new round of technological iteration and upgrading. The industrialization of ultra -high nickel, lithium -rich manganese base, manganese phosphate iron lithium, and sodium battery is being launched one after another. It will become the mainstream and cause industry debate.

He Zhonglin said that when they first entered the industry, they chose between lithium iron phosphate and sandy lithium battery routes, and finally chose lithium iron phosphate routes. Although the company also realized the mass production of ternary lithium battery materials in 2018, while investing in lithium iron phosphate routes in 2018, the company did not catch up with the outbreak of ternary lithium explosion. However, with the end of the subsidy era, began in 2021, lithium iron phosphate re -achieved the market share of the market share of ternary lithium materials, which also verified the correctness of the company's route selection.

At the moment, He Zhonglin believes that because of the scarcity of cobalt materials, lithium cobaltate has become a decline industry. In the same reason, the high nickel three -yuan material is only suitable for a small number of long -term power batteries in the future. It is not suitable for application of energy storage, so it is difficult to become mainstream.因为 Battery technology routes are not suitable for mainstream in the future because of the toxicity of 技术.

As for the current hot spots of sodium ion batteries and manganese -phosphate iron lithium technical routes, He Zhonglin gave each judgment respectively. Lithium difference, manganese element is unstable during the battery cycle, resulting in the cycle life of the manganese iron lithium can only reach 2500 weeks, which is lower than the 4,000 weeks of the lithium lithium. At the same time Used, not suitable for energy storage; second, sodium ion batteries will have two directions in the future: layered compounds and polycotic ions.

He Zhonglin said that next year, the technology route of manganese phosphate iron phosphate will usher in a small climax, but it is subject to cost. The overall installation will be limited. Lithium manganese phosphate iron is part of the market share of lithium iron phosphate and ternary. The proportion of manganese iron lithium to iron lithium next year is 1:20, and the overall volume is still small.

The period of sodium ion explosion is expected to be around 2026 and 2027. He Zhonglin said that Rongtong Hi -Tech has done for 3 years. He believes that due to the low energy density of sodium ions, he will not have the direction of power battery in the future, and the application scenario is in energy storage.

"Sodium ions are actually the cost reduction direction of lithium iron phosphate. The process of gathered ion ion ions and manganese -phosphate iron phosphate is similar to the existing lithium iron phosphate production process, and layered compounds are similar to the ternary production process. The existing production line is transformed into a sodium ion production line, and it has begun to be closed. It should be easy to switch. You only need to finish the EIA, and it will soon be formed. In the future, we will slowly give up the three yuan. There are three routes: manganese iron lithium and sodium ion. This is our positioning. "

As for the solid -state route of market hype, He Zhonglin gives judgments to predict that the solid battery will not mass production within 8 years. "Now it is a liquid solid product. Lithium iron phosphate is still used in liquid solids. No one can make pure solid -state batteries at present, and no one can industrialize the solid battery ... Even if the solid battery is made, or or Other disruptive technologies appear, we predict that lithium iron phosphate is still competitive in some specific scenes, and its life cycle is at least 10 years. "He Zhonglin said.

How to keep the raw material soaring:

Quotation of industrial capital, recycling to solve supply problems

Since 2020, the price of battery -level lithium carbonate has soared from a minimum of 40,000 yuan/ton, and the price has soared to the current 500,000 yuan/ton. As a downstream, the positive pole material companies have also faced the cost of raw materials and supply chain.

He Zhonglin said that at the entire lithium battery industry chain, positive material companies benefited from rising lithium ore prices. Rising is good but profitable for industry companies.

He Zhonglin believes that in stock management, companies can not worry about the ups and downs of lithium carbonate prices. "The inventory is as small as possible when the decline, and the inventory can be increased as much as possible when the rise." In addition, the company is also introducing the upstream industrial capital to complete the security of the supply chain.

He Zhonglin believes that the rise in raw materials on the industry is short -term. When the domestic futures market is mature, the way of hedging of futures can be used to solve the problem of price surge.

In addition, Rongtong Hi -Tech is also doing power battery recycling, recycling and recycling lithium carbonate, iron phosphate and other materials through power batteries. The company's planning capacity is as high as 350,000 tons/year. "We think that after 5 years, we may completely form an economic cycle. There is no need to go to the cause of the industry because of the shortage of the mine, so after we signed the 6 automotive industry capital in the mines, we signed the three protocols. One is the battery recycling. "He Zhonglin said that according to the plan, in 2027, he heard the self -sufficiency that can achieve raw material supply.

As for the cost of recycling of lithium iron phosphate, He Zhonglin said that Rongtong Hi -Tech uses a "wet metallurgical" technology different from the market to use a new process against new processes. As for the cost of recycling, He Zhonglin said that he had estimated that the recycling of lithium iron phosphate batteries could not fall below 100,000 yuan/ton, and it was difficult to make money if he fell below 100,000 yuan/ton.

The power battery recycling industry is ushered in Dongfeng. September 16. At the theme conference held by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology today, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology Energy Conservation and Comprehensive Utilization Director Huang Libin said that my country's power battery recycling system is gradually being improved. National standards and industry standards.

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