The price of oil is to fall, just tonight

The oil prices of refined products ushered in the "seventh fall" during the year. The National Development and Reform Commission released on the 21st. According to the recent changes in oil prices in the international market, according to the current mechanism for oil prices in refined refined, from 24:00 on September 21, 2022, domestic auto and diesel prices have decreased by 290 yuan and 280 yuan per ton, respectively Essence

According to estimates, after the price adjustment is equivalent to the price increase, the No. 92 gasoline is reduced by 0.23 yuan per liter, and 0.24 yuan per liter of diesel is 0.24 yuan. Calculated in ordinary private cars with a fuel tank capacity of 50L, it will spend about 11.5 yuan for a box of oil. Xu Wenwen, an analyst of Longzhong Information, said that according to the 100 kilometers of fuel consumption of 7L-8L in the urban area, the cost of a 100 kilometers per driving is about 1.7 yuan per 100 kilometers; for large-scale logistics and transportation vehicles with 50 tons of full loading The cost of fuel for kilometers is reduced by about 9.6 yuan. After the price adjustment, the price of car firewood in most areas across the country is about 8-8.2 yuan/liter, and the price of 92#gasoline retail is at 8-8.2 yuan/liter.

Since the beginning of this year, the domestic refined oil market has undergone a total of 18 rounds, showing the pattern of "11 rises and seven declines". After the rise and fall, the cumulative gasoline price was raised by 1305 yuan/ton during the year, and the cumulative increase of diesel prices was 1255 yuan/ton.

The monitoring of the National Development and Reform Commission's price monitoring center shows that the international oil price has fallen sharply during the price adjustment cycle of this round (September 6 -September 20). On average, Brent in London and WTI in New York decreased by 6.42%lower than the previous round of price adjustment.

"During this round of prices, the overall decline in crude oil prices is greater than the increase, and the change rate has maintained negative width fluctuations. According to the calculation of Jinlianchuang, as of the tenth working day of September 21, the average price of reference to crude oil is 88.73 US dollars/ The change rate of the barrel is -6.43%, and the retail price of domestic gasoline and diesel is reduced as scheduled. "Wang Yanting, a senior analyst of Jinlian Inn’ s refined oil, said.

During the price adjustment cycle, the developed economy opened the "radical rate hike" or even the "violent interest rate hike" cycle. The Bank of Canada raised interest rates from 0.75 points to 3.25%, the highest value since 2008; the Swedish central bank has increased the benchmark interest rate from 0.75%to 1.75%, the maximum in the past 30 years; Since the official circulation of the euro, the maximum rate hikes have been raised. The US CPI and core CPIs in August are higher than expected. The market generally estimates that the Fed will raise interest rates of 75 basis points. In developed economies, the market is concerned about the slowdown of global economic growth and the decline in demand for crude oil, and they have sold them in response. The US dollar index hit a new high of 20 years and also suppressed crude oil prices. Brent oil prices in London once fell below $ 90 per barrel. On average, Brent and New York's WTI oil prices decreased by 6.77%and 6.07%compared with the previous price adjustment cycle, respectively.

The National Development and Reform Commission Price Monitoring Center predicts that oil prices may increase in the short term, and the possibility of continuing decline will not be ruled out. On the one hand, the market is concerned that a sharp interest rate hike will cause damage to the growth of global economy and crude oil demand, which will cause suppression of oil prices. On the other hand, the increase in US crude oil and refined oil inventory has announced the extension of strategic oil reserve release plans. However, the game between the United States and Western and other oil -producing countries may trigger a new round of European energy crisis and further cut the global crude oil market. It is still an important uncertainties that affect oil prices.

Transfer from: Economic Daily WeChat (Reporter Xiong Li)

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