International oil prices have declined, domestic refined oil prices may fall seventh during the year

21.09.2022

Number of this text: 1191, reading time for about 2 minutes

Introduction: Affected by the continued decline in international crude oil prices during the price adjustment cycle, domestic refined oil prices may be reduced tonight, which will usher in the seventh decline during the year.

Author | First Finance Lu Ruyi

At 24:00 tonight, the National Development and Reform Commission will open a new round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window. At that time, oil prices may fall seventh during the year.

As of September 20, the ninth working day of the price adjustment cycle of the refined oil product, the average price of reference to crude oil was $ 88.90 per barrel, and the change rate was negative 6.25%. On September 21, Zhuo Chuang Information, the commodity information agency of the commodity information agency, stated that at 24:00 tonight (September 21), the retail price of domestic gasoline and dieter will be reduced by 290 yuan and 280 yuan, respectively, and the price of 92 gasoline will be 92. , No. 95 gasoline, No. 0 diesel will be reduced by 0.23 yuan, 0.24 yuan, and 0.24 yuan, respectively.

It is not considered the upcoming price adjustment tonight. Since the beginning of this year, the domestic refined oil prices have been adjusted for a total of seventeen times, including 11 rises and six declines.

According to the current domestic "refined oil pricing mechanism", the price of domestic refined oil products is highly related to international crude oil prices. The main basis for the adjustment of domestic refined oil prices is that the weighted average price of international crude oil prices in ten working days is compared with the weighted average price of international crude oil prices in the previous cycle.

Behind this round of domestic refined oil prices is the continuous decline in international crude oil prices within the price adjustment cycle.

"Generally speaking, the medium -term oil prices are still in the trend of slowly focusing on the center of gravity." Gui Chenxi, chief energy analyst of CITIC Futures, told the First Financial reporter, "As the supply of crude oil supply has risen and demand has slowed down, the pressure of commodity attributes has gradually increased. Inventory recovery leads to the decline of valuation support. "

First Financial reporters checked the relevant data from the US Petroleum Association (API) found that last week, US crude oil and refined oil inventory increased. As of September 16, crude oil inventory increased by about 1 million barrels, and gasoline inventory increased by about 3.2 million barrels.

Another reason for international crude oil prices is that the public is concerned that market demand may slow down due to strong US dollars and interest rates may rise sharply.

According to Yang An, a researcher at Haitong Futures Energy, the weakening of oil prices in the near future has a direct relationship with the continuous cooling of the entire financial market risk appetite. Investors are worried that the risk of global economic recession will increase, so the market's emotions have significantly worse.

The industry believes that this kind of concern on the global economic recession has an impact on the favorable impact of oil prices on oil prices that exceeds the favorable impact of expectations.

On September 13, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (hereinafter referred to as "OPEC") showed in the latest monthly oil report that in August 2022, the output of OPEC crude oil increased by 618,000 barrels per day/day to 29.51 million barrels per day, and the increase was to the increase to the increase to the increase to the increase. 2.1%. The report shows that more than half of the increase in crude oil production, Libya, a member country, in August, the country's crude oil production increased by 426,000 barrels per day to 1.123 million barrels per day.

Nevertheless, the output of "OPEC+" in August is still more than 3 million barrels per day lower than the target output of the month. In the view of Dennis Kissler, vice president of the US financial service agency BOK Financial Corporation, the company, although the news should be favorable to the price of crude oil, the macro factor and possible economic recession of interest rate hikes still occur. Occupy the primary position.

In this regard, Tamas Vega, an analyst at PVM Petroleum Brokerage Company, holds the same point of view. Waga believes that "the upcoming Federal Reserve interest conference and the strong dollar of dollars have limited international oil prices."

"There is still room for falling below the oil price." Gui Chenxi predicted that in the middle period, at the current level of inventory, the price of international crude oil futures has strong valuation support at $ 80. However, if the inventory continues to accumulate, the valuation of the supply and demand may be moved down synchronously.

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