@All car owners, the price of refined oil products "seventh fall" on Wednesday or the year, the travel cost during the National Day will be reduced

After the rise in early September, the domestic refined oil retail price limit may be reduced again.

According to the calculation of institutions, as of the eighth working day of the refined oil pricing cycle, the average price of reference to crude oil varieties is 88.85 US dollars/barrel, and the change rate is -6.31%. After the price increase, the decline was about 0.21-0.24 yuan/liter.

This round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window is September 21 (Wednesday) at 24:00, which will mean that the price may usher in the "seventh fall" during the year, and the travel costs of the majority of car owners will be further reduced.

The retail price limit of refined oil may be lowered. At present, this round of refined oil pricing cycle is close to the end. Although the recent volatile trend of crude oil prices has shown a high level of operation, the overall maintenance is low.

According to Golden Lianchuang's calculation, as of the eighth working day of this round of refined oil pricing cycle, the average price of reference to crude oil varieties is $ 88.85/barrel, and the change rate is -6.31%. After tons, after the price increase, it is expected that the oil price will fall by about 0.21-0.24 yuan/liter.

The main basis for the adjustment of domestic refined oil is the change rate of the weighted average price of international crude oil prices from the weighted average price of international crude oil prices in the previous cycle. "According to the principle of ten working days' price adjustment of domestic gasoline and diesel retail prices, the price adjustment window of this round is 24:00 on September 21. If this refined oil price adjustment policy will be reduced within the seventh time the year." Oil analyst Wang Shan said.

Sun Yaman, an analyst of Zhongyu Information Reinforcement, said that despite the impact of international crude oil shocks, the limitation of the retail price of this round of refined oil products has been narrowed, but the trend of downward reduction will not be changed.

Regarding the recent reasons for the trend of international oil prices, Wang Shan analyzed that although the uncertainty of the supply prospects of the crude oil market is still large, especially Russia's crude oil supply may have provided strong support for oil prices at one time, but under the expectations of Europe and the United States, the global interest rate hike expectations, globally global interest rate hikes, globally, globally Slowing economic concerns caused oil prices to pressure. As interest rates rising and inflation are worried about shrouded in countries, investors worry that energy demand will be destroyed. At the same time, the betting of the Fed once again has also boosted the strengthening of the US dollar. At present, the US dollar index has reached a new high of nearly two decades, which has also led to aggravating oil prices.

Diesel or comprehensively returns to the "7 yuan era"

If calculated according to the adjustment amplitude of the predicted above, after the price adjustment of the refined oil product, the owner's full box of 50 liters of fuel tank will save about 10 yuan than the previous cycle. In terms of fuel consumption, the fuel consumption cost will be reduced by about 34 yuan in private cars with a monthly running 2,000 kilometers and 8 liters per 100 kilometers.

In fact, since this year, domestic refined oil prices have been adjusted for 17 rounds, a total of "11 rises and 6 declines". Although the previous "five consecutive declines" appeared in refined oil, due to the significant rise in oil prices in the first half of this year, after the rise and fall of oil prices, the cumulative gasoline and diesel have been raised by 1595 yuan/ton and 1535 yuan/ton respectively since this year.

Picture source: Jin Lianchuang

Wang Shan said that although there are still two working days before the opening of the refined oil price adjustment window, there is basically no suspense at this retail price limit and affected by inertia. It is expected that the final reduction may be close to 300 yuan/ton. If the current reduction is calculated and the retail price reduction policy is implemented, domestic 0#diesel prices will fully return to the "7 yuan era".

Short -term international oil prices are mainly based on shocks

In terms of wholesale markets, the recent increase in profit and air factors has increased, and domestic oil prices have gradually shown a decline.

Wang Shan said that with the increase in the retail price of the refined oil product on September 7, the wholesale price of domestic gasoline and diesel has risen at one time. Due to the tightening of resources, the price of diesel has once again risen to a limited price sales. Due to the high price, the downstream pick -up goods are very cautious, the atmosphere of the market transaction is obviously fading, and the main sales pressure continues to increase. Coupled with the impact of the epidemic, the demand for gasoline is not as good as expected. Under the expected impact of the retail price of this round, the price fell first, and the preferential policies were flexible. Diesel has a strong decline, and the price has gradually relaxed recently, but the overall as a whole is still high.

Looking forward to the market outlook, Wang Shan said that the news of the oil market in the short term is difficult to find support, and it will focus on the sales of the main unit in the post -maternal units. However, from the fundamental point of view, the land refining rate may still have room for decline, coupled with the later export volume or continues to increase, the domestic resource supply and deposit must narrow the expectations. The autumn harvest has been launched one after another, and outdoor projects such as factory, mines, infrastructure, etc. are actively carried out, and demand for diesel will continue. Before the National Day, gasoline and diesel also had a certain demand for stocking, and the fundamentals became optimistic as a whole. Therefore, under the influence of the short -term retail price, the wholesale price of gasoline and diesel may still have a certain falling space. However, as the sales tasks of the main unit are completed one after another, there is no possibility of a moderate rebound in the later period. Diesel may still maintain a limited level of sales.

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