Is the automobile industry "take off" again?

△ Data map: Jilin Changchun, FAW-Volkswagen Warehouse Parking Lot is waiting for cars that are transported.

Good news has been passed on to the automotive market.

On May 23, the executive meeting of the State Council deployed a measure of stability of the economy, including a phased subtraction of 60 billion yuan in purchase tax for some passenger cars. From the perspective of the industry, this is an important benefit of the automotive market after being affected by the epidemic of new crown pneumonia.

On the 31st of the month, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation issued the "Announcement on Reducing Partial Vehicle Vehicle Purchase Tax", which clearly explicitly stated that the purchase date was within June 1 to December 31, 2022, Tax) Disted passenger cars of 2.0 liters and below of no more than 300,000 yuan will be reduced by half -levying vehicle purchase tax.

At present, the vehicle purchase tax is levied at 10%of the car price (excluding tax price). According to the above preferential policies, the time -to -time purchase of a 300,000 yuan of 2.0 liters and below displacement passenger cars can be purchased, and the purchase tax for reduction can reach 15,000 yuan.

Although affected by many aspects of the new crown pneumonia epidemic and geopolitical conflicts in many places across the country, the automobile consumer market once entered a weak period of weakness, but the industry generally believes that the policy of direct purchase tax supplement will stimulate car consumption and promote the recovery of the automotive market. Essence

In an interview with the "China Report", Cui Dongshu, Secretary -General of the National Passenger Vehicle Market Information Association (hereinafter referred to as the "Passenger Union"), said that the implementation of the above policies is expected to drive independent brands, joint venture mainstream cars and entry -level luxury car markets Demand, the model covers the model of 77%of the overall retail. He predicted that the overall automotive market was expected to increase by 2 million units in 2022, achieving a positive growth year -on -year growth.

Production and sales in June may increase by more than 10%

The car sales market "heard the sound".

"China Report" reporter randomly visited a number of car sales stores and found that, in addition to the government's purchase tax direct supplementary policy, car companies also launched a combined "discount package". SAIC Volkswagen, FAW-Volkswagen, FAW Pentium, Dongfeng Peugeot, Changan Automobile, Changan Ford, Dongfeng Nissan, Beijing Automobile, Volvo and other car companies have issued preferential policies that echo the purchase tax halving.

In a Beijing Automobile Industrial Park, a SAIC Volkswagen sales staff told reporters that in addition to the government's purchase tax halving policy, the store has an additional 30,000 yuan cash subsidy for designated new vehicles, which is "equivalent to the entire purchase tax." The staff member said that the current volume is sufficient and does not need to wait like a few months in previous months.

According to the latest data from the Federation, in April this year, the output of passenger vehicles was 990,000 units, and by May, the number reached 1.67 million units. Cui Dongshu pointed out that with the significant effect of the resumption of work in the automotive industry chain, the overall industry has also shown a strong growth momentum.

In the sales store of a BMW vehicle in Beijing, Zhao Ming told the reporter of the China Report that when there was no impact of the new crown pneumonia, he could sell at least 6 vehicles on his working day, and the amount of sale on the weekend was doubled. He remembers that from late April this year, affected by the recurrence of new crown pneumonia in Shanghai and other places, consumers who came to the store were also less than half, and the transaction volume also declined. Even with senior sales staff, his transaction volume was reduced from 40 orders a week to less than 10 orders.

For 14 years in the front -line sales of automobiles, Zhao Ming keenly discovered that the preferential policy of halving the purchase tax of the country's implementation of the country may be the "critical time" of reversing sales. In early June, Beijing, affected by the new crown pneumonia's epidemic, has not fully resumed work and re -production. Zhao Ming called the old customers at home and conveyed this "favorable" to the other party. He told reporters that one of the two orders of his recent transactions was stuck in the previous transaction price. After the implementation of the policy of halving the purchase tax, the overall transaction price of the car was 12,000 yuan lower.

On Monday, on Monday, Zhao Ming, who officially resumed work, received five appointments that would come to see the car on the weekend. The rest are in stock. Zhao Ming speculated that the overall sales in the store will increase significantly.

The reporter noticed that not only car companies, many local governments also actively "rescued the market." Since the beginning of this year, more than 20 provinces and cities including Hubei, Shandong, and Guangdong have issued incentive policies related to automobile consumption, including increasing car purchase indicators and cash subsidies.

Sheng Qiuping, deputy minister of the Ministry of Commerce, stated in a public speech that with various relevant measures, the car consumption will continue to stabilize the recovery and play an active role in stabilizing the macroeconomic market.

When talking to the reporter of "China News", Cui Dongshu also mentioned the rise of sales. In his opinion, due to the comprehensive recovery of Shanghai in early June, the problem of logistics and transportation of the automotive industry chain would also be relieved. The policy of purchase tax reduction was officially implemented on June 1, and the measures that promoted consumption in various places continued to emerge. Cui Dongshu believed that consumer demand related to automobiles will be fully released in June. It will realize the popularity of the first half of the year. "Cui Dongshu said.

"Unprecedented strength" subsidy

△ Data Map: The driver picks up the vehicle in Tianjin Port Global Rolling Terminal.

The automotive industry chain covers the entire process of raw materials, chips, batteries, batteries, and maintenance from the upstream. According to the calculation of third -party agencies, the automotive manufacturing industry can increase the value -added of the upstream and downstream related industries at an value of 2.64 yuan per value.

More than one experts mentioned that the role of macro -policy regulation and encouragement and stimulating car consumption is one of the starting points for steady growth. With the support of tax discounts, car consumption potential is expected to be activated. According to statistics from the China Automobile Industry Association (hereinafter referred to as the "China Automobile Association"), in the first quarter of this year, domestic automobile production and sales reached 6.484 million and 6.509 million, respectively, a slight increase of 2.0%and 0.2%year -on -year. Due to the impact of cities such as Changchun and Shanghai, and the reduction of production caused by chip shortages, the automotive industry's performance in the first quarter was not as expected. According to the research report of the China Automobile Association, although it is not as good as expected, there are local consumer policy support, and the growth confidence in the industry is still in the industry.

Fu Bingfeng, Secretary -General of the China Automobile Association, admitted to the reporter of "China Report" that compared with the new crown pneumonia epidemic that set out in 2020, the epidemic situation in this round of multiple points has caused a more manifestation of the automotive industry chain. The chain is also blocked.

At this stage, whether the field of automobiles under the impact can carry the country's "heavy responsibility" that can cause market concerns. In this regard, Fu Bingfeng pointed out that from the current situation, the central, local, and enterprises will gradually recover under the blessing of multiple policies in the same direction.

Fu Bingfeng added that overall, in terms of support or the scope of policy implementation, the steps of recovery of the auto market will be further accelerated.

Public information shows that before this round of vehicle purchase tax preferential policies, my country has issued relevant policies three times. Taking 2009 as an example, under the stimulation of 5%of the purchase tax reduction, the sales of automobiles exceeded 10 million units this year, an increase of about 46%year -on -year. The growth rate in 2016 was about 14.9%. Compared with the previous three rounds of purchase tax reductions, the "half -halking" measures have expanded the scope of application and expanded the displacement limit from 1.6 liters to 2.0 liters. The industry believes that the discount of this round is "unprecedented".

However, there are also opinions that different from the background of the previous three -wheeled purchase tax reduction and exemption is that at present, my country ’s passenger vehicles have passed the stage of popularity, and it is difficult to form“ qualitative changes ”.

Cui Dongshu pointed out to reporters that the current car penetration rate is 40%and most of them are urban residents, and the penetration rate is still insufficient. In his opinion, this round of consumption measures is mainly to stimulate groups with increased or purchase demand and boost their confidence in consumption.

Earlier, Jia Rong E, Director of the Taxation Department of the Ministry of Finance, said at a special press conference of financial support to hold the economic market that more than 8.7 million passenger cars would enjoy policy concessions. This number accounts for about 33%of the 26 million vehicles in 2021.

The Federation of Federation has previously estimated that the policy is expected to drive 13 percentage points to the retail sales of automobiles, which will drive the growth rate of the total retail sales of consumer goods about 1.3 percentage points. It is estimated that the increase in the value -added of the automotive manufacturing industry in 2022 will increase by 10 percentage points compared with the policy stimulus, and the growth rate of the overall industrial added value is driving about 0.3 percentage points.

Car companies borrow the situation to upgrade

△ New energy vehicles prepared for factory.

It is worth noting that in a series of measures to drive automobile consumption, the support of new energy vehicles has attracted attention.

On May 31, the General Office of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the General Office of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Ministry, the General Office of the Ministry of Commerce, and the General Department of the National Energy Administration jointly issued the "Notice on Carrying out the 2022 New Energy Vehicle Going to the Countryside". At the same time, the four departments encouraged more localities to introduce more new energy vehicles to the countryside support policies, improve the environment of new energy vehicles, and promote the construction of rural charging and replacement infrastructure.

According to data from the China Automobile Association, in 2021, the new energy vehicle models sold a total of 1.068 million units, an increase of 169.2%year -on -year, which was higher than about 10%from the overall growth rate of the new energy vehicle market that year, and the contribution rate was nearly 30%. This means that the going to the countryside has strongly promoted the popularization and promotion of new energy vehicles in the market.

In addition, from the perspective of local policies, Beijing, Hainan and other places have introduced policies for new energy vehicles. Taking Hainan Province as an example, the latest policy shows that the charging costs of eligible new energy vehicles in Hainan are subsidized. Earlier, Hainan Province also issued many policies for favorable new energy vehicles.

However, preferential policies in the past have increased their support for new energy vehicles. The policy of direct purchase of taxation taxes benefits most of the traditional fuel vehicles on the market, which has further weakened the advantages of new energy vehicles on the consumer.

Chen Shihua, deputy secretary -general of the China Automobile Industry Association, explained that from the perspective of the market, most models are still relatively large in traditional fuel vehicles. When economic development encounters difficulties, it is not contradictory to drive new energy vehicles and traditional fuel vehicles. He reminded that with the acceleration of the rhythm of re -production and re -production, the problem of "lack of core" still cannot be underestimated. To drive the car consumer market, the combination of traditional fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles.

Many experts mentioned that under the influence of multiple factors such as chip shortage and supply chain blocking, the automotive industry has been intensified by downward pressure. At the same time, China's automobile manufacturing upgrade has also faced a test.

In Cui Dongshu's view, in the short term, preferential purchase tax policies for inclusiveness can drive the growth of automobile production and sales. But in the long run, in terms of traditional fuel vehicles, if Chinese car companies want to break through internationally, it is "difficult." However, with the help of new energy vehicles, it is possible to achieve a "transform". Cui Dongshu said that if traditional car companies with the advantages of manufacturing, if they can do a good job of electrifying, they can cooperate between new energy vehicles and traditional fuel vehicles.

Fu Bingfeng believes that in the past five years, it is an important period for automobiles from traditional fuel to electrification and intelligence.From the perspective of supply, traditional car companies that are difficult to transform successfully are gradually replaced by new forces in new energy vehicle manufacturing."Whether traditional car companies can transform in this wave is the key to their survival." Fu Bingfeng said that this is the process of normalizing and winning the fittest in the automotive industry.(Due to the request of the interviewee, Zhao Ming in the article is a pseudonym)

Text | "China Report" reporter Qiu Hui

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