What is the valuation and landing situation of capital rushing into smart driving?

In recent years, Wang Qing, a reporter from Economic Observation Network, has ushered in the wind period of the "new fourization" wave represented by intelligent, electrifying, sharing, and networking. According to rough calculations in industry insiders, the size of the entire intelligent driving market has exceeded 100 billion yuan. With a small breakthrough in technology landing and commercial transformation in 2019, the intelligent driving track is ushered in the second round of investment heat.

On September 2nd, at the "2022 Intelligent Driving Commercial Land and Industrial Development Trends Seminar", for measuring the valuation of the intelligent driving track, He Piani, the chief analyst of the global industrial strategy of CITIC Securities Co., Ltd. Whether the R & D team and technology can continue to strengthen and break through the three aspects. Taking autonomous driving commercial vehicles as an example, the application of autonomous driving is to save costs, the second is to solve the problem of manpower shortage, the third is to solve the problem of safety, and to measure whether it can land to judge from the technical feasibility.

Ductive period

At present, the state and local governments have introduced relevant policies, specifications, standards, and action plans to promote the development of the industry from a strategic level.

In December 2020, the Ministry of Transport issued the "Guiding Opinions on Promoting the Development and Application of Road Transportation Autonomous Driving Technology", which proposed "supporting the cargo transportation service of autonomous driving. Construction site and other environmental scenarios such as relatively closed areas and postal express delivery at the end of the postal express delivery, combined with the needs of production operations, carry out demonstration applications for autonomous driving loading, and promote it to highway freight and cities under the premise of making risk assessment and emergency plans. Delivery and other scenarios to create a safe, efficient and intelligent logistics transportation service. "

With the commercialization of smart driving in a specific scene, it has once again become the "darling" of capital chase.

Guo Xiaobin, a partner of Shanghai Chentao Asset Management Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Chen Tao Capital"), said that in 2015, the company participated slightly when the intelligent driving track sprouts. At this time, considering the application of technology development, more It is to observe thinking to find more suitable entry angles. Until 2019, whether it is technology landing or towards commercial transformation, the intelligent driving industry has made a lot of breakthroughs.

"Taking the unmanned logistics vehicle market as an example, according to the number of express delivery orders in 2021 reached 110 billion yuan, if the average price of 7 yuan per order will reach 770 billion yuan. Based on this Unmanned driving has more than 350 billion market space. In addition, the market size of various vertical fields such as mines and ports is also over 100 billion yuan, and the volume of the entire smart driving track may reach trillion. Said Shu Liang, the founder and CEO of Shanghai Yifuzhi Technology Co., Ltd..

As far as the overall valuation level of the domestic intelligent driving field project is currently, He Piani believes, "This problem cannot be said to be high or low. Because there are many different fields in autonomous driving, there are passenger cars and commercial vehicles. There are also fast and slow differences in commercial vehicle fields, and the application scenarios are different. In addition, there are various subdivided projects such as components and sensors. Its valuation level in each field can be different. "

He Plong uses sensors as an example, which can generally be divided into cameras, ordinary radar, and lidar.

"In foreign countries, many such companies have been listed through the SPAC (that is, the" Special Temporary M & A Company ") system in the past two years. However, the number of SPAC listings this year has decreased significantly. Secondly, some lidar -related US stocks listed through Spac in the past or two years have begun to really land. In the future, orders are relatively large. Tend to be reasonable. "He Piani said.

Lin Xinzheng, chairman of Chen Tao Capital, said that the valuation of domestic startups is now higher than foreign countries. The reason is that every wave of emerging industries in the domestic capital market has the opportunity to be realized in the secondary market. A lot high. Therefore, the investment may be high when investing in emerging industries, but after the true track selection is correct, the investment income is still very considerable, which may have a deep relationship with the characteristics of the Chinese market.

There are still challenges to land

It is reported that the market space in the field of intelligent driving is vast, but it is still difficult to land.

At the meeting, many speakers pointed out that the commercialization of intelligent driving is currently in the stage of seeing dawn, but there are still some obstacles and difficulties need to be overcome. To be lower than artificially; in addition, standards and regulations need support.

Taking autonomous trucks as an example, the success of the business model of enterprise depends on whether it can establish a stable industry relationship network closed loop.

"Therefore, whether it can be combined with the deeper binding of industry partners such as the carrier, the shipper, and OEMS. In addition, the cooperative relationship network of various enterprises can also reflect the technical level of its autonomous driving system from the side. Before the model has not been verified, united partners means that they are expected to grab greater market share in the future. But it should be noted that the ecosystem of the autonomous truck industry is still changing. Cooperation. "He Piani said.

At the same time, autonomous trucks are also facing technical challenges such as long braking distance and high difficulty in vehicle control. Due to the larger volume and weight, the truck requires a longer response time and braking distance compared to the car, and the vehicles on the highway are generally faster. Require. In addition, as a load tool, the weight of the truck ranges from 15 tons to 50 tons of air load. Therefore, the control algorithm of its autonomous driving system emphasizes adaptive adjustment and ensures smooth operation under different loading conditions of the vehicle. It is worth mentioning that the current semi -closed or limited scenarios technology that is relatively mature in the technology has gone through the scientific period and technical period, and is transitioning to the product period. The application of different scenarios is also accelerating the landing. At the same time, all unmanned commercial operations have gradually expanded from the pilot of a single city and a single area to the nationwide, and the commercialization applications of limited scenarios such as mines and ports are in the ascendant.

For example, Beijing Tap Ge Zhixing Technology Co., Ltd., which focuses on solving the demand for open -air minerals, realized revenue by 40 million yuan in 2021. It is expected that this year's revenue will exceed 100 million yuan.

"Autonomous driving logistics vehicles that limited scenarios are generally low, and have special specialty and single paths. Compared with autonomous trucks, it is safer to drive in urban areas and highways. The uneven road conditions in the mines will also increase the difficulty. "He Piani said.

Lin Xinzheng believes that the intelligent driving vertical industry has passed the test exploration period, and the companies in the industry have relatively mature technical solutions for various scenarios. In the second half, the development of various fields will be placed on the polishing of scenes and technology, and is committed to finding more opportunities for monetization.

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