Scripture headline | Ten yuan shock waves: drivers dare not increase prices, middle and lower reaches of enterprise pressure, new energy companies cheer

When oil prices entered the era of ten yuan, the business decision -making and personal lifestyle of the enterprise were quietly changing under the action of this force.

Author: Tian Jin Song Di

Beautiful editor: Shawlia

Guide

One || Truck driver Hong Min's measure is to be more cautious when receiving orders. Try to only receive orders with long distance and high timeliness requirements. Only this transportation price can be higher. Of course, this also means more transportation risks and physical fatigue.

车 || The person in charge of a taxi company told the Economic Observer that the taxi of the company was completely used in the contract, and the cost of rising oil prices was digested by the driver. The price increase is not an option. There are more than 100,000 online ride -hailing cars in the city, and the competition is fierce.

Three || Under the high level of oil prices, how much impact will the macro economy face? From the perspective of a number of macroeconomic experts, upstream and downstream industrial enterprises will face very different situations.

The rise of oil prices is gradually affecting people's daily life and decision -making, and promoted some longer changes. New energy vehicle manufacturers have begun to cheer.

At 00:00 on June 15th, after the tenth raising of the year, No. 95 gasoline in many places entered the "Ten Yuan Times", and the 92st gasoline exceeded 9 yuan/L.

In the past two years, the price of refined oil products started from the floor price in 2020. In early 2022, 8 yuan nodes were placed. After the six months of fluctuations, it finally stood at an unprecedented high point with unquestionable footsteps.

Consumers of oils fainted at the rapid rise of oil prices.

A 4.2-meter refrigerated car increased from 800 yuan in 2020 to 1,600 yuan, and the raw materials of the fabric rose 8%-10%in half a year. "Car's opponents"; taxi associations began to communicate closely with the government, and took the option to increase prices to the table -expected difficult.

Researchers in the field of energy generally predict that the high oil prices will not end in the short term. Yan Jiantao, chief researcher at Jicheng Energy Holdings Co., Ltd., judged that in October 2020, the price of commodity commodity opened up the upward cycle. At present, the rising cycle may take one or two years to end.

Macroeconomic experts have also begun to evaluate the impact of rising oil prices on the annual CPI and even macroeconomic growth. In the first half of this year, the CPI was still in a mild rising stage. The rise in oil prices was considered one of the factors that pushed PPI and CPI in the second half of the year.

Who digested the cost of rising oil prices? What will you change?

Fan Ruoxi, a researcher at the Bank of China Research Institute, told the Economic Observer that the upstream raw material processing manufacturing enterprises can transmit the cost increase pressure to the middle and lower reaches due to the high bargaining ability; however Big, this will further squeeze their operating profits and increase corporate operating difficulties.

When oil prices entered the era of ten yuan, the business decision -making and personal lifestyle of the enterprise were quietly changing under the action of this force.

Oil price trapped a truck driver

Shortly after the truck driver Hong Min entered the industry, he said that if it was not because of the car repayment, he would not do this bank.

In July 2020, the price of oil was still at the low level, and the price has now doubled. Although oil prices have continued to rise, the freight has not risen over the past two years. Hong Min said that the 4.2 -meter refrigerated car increased from 800 yuan to 1,600 yuan. If the distance to pick up the goods is a little farther, it may lose money in that trip.

Hong Min calculated a account for reporters -its own refrigerator car consumption of about 1.48 yuan per kilometer, 0.45 yuan/kilometer for overlapping high -speed tolls, and transportation costs of 1.93 yuan/km. Just 2 yuan. If the regular oil is added, the transportation cost will increase further.

But Hong Min did not dare to stop. He still needs to pay more than 6,000 yuan in truck loans every month. The measures he adopted is that he is more cautious when receiving orders, try only to connect orders with long distance and high timeliness requirements. Only this transportation price can be higher. Of course, this also means more transportation risks and physical fatigue.

In the "Card Friends Zone" in the vertical exchange and mutual assistance community of the truck driver, more than 2.5 million registered users shared their insights on the sports car. Ke Dawei, deputy general manager of the card friend zone who dealt with truck drivers all year round, said that the vehicle driver who joined the courier company can be borne by the company's level; and retail investors (buying a car on each platform to receive orders) need to bear all the oil prices Rising costs. Because of the transparency of the platform information and the bidding between drivers, the supply party continues to lower the transportation price, and retail investors basically have no bargaining power. Since 2018, the unit price of transportation has been in a slow decline, and it is almost close to the transportation cost line. Therefore, in the past two years, a large number of truck drivers have left the industry or suspended the running list in the short term to wait for the oil price to fall.

According to data from the Ministry of Transport, the number of truck drivers has gradually declined from 21 million in 2018 to 18 million in 2020.

The research report released by Tianfeng Securities macro shows that the impact of comprehensive investment, consumption, and net exports, the rise of oil prices by 1%will drag down China's actual GDP growth rate of about 0.03%. Petroleum is the mother of industry, and the high enterprise of oil prices will inevitably have a global impact on all walks of life.

Zhao Xiaomin, an expert in the express delivery industry, and his team estimated that if the price of crude oil is maintained at more than $ 100, calculating the increase in related costs brought by oil prices rose, the impact on the profit of express companies is at least 3%-5%. Aviation fuel costs account for about 30%of airline operating costs. Data given by Southern Airlines in the 2021 annual report shows that the consumption of fuel consumption is unchanged. If the average fuel price of fuel during the reporting period increases by 10%, it will lead to an increase of 2.551 billion yuan. In 2021, the domestic aviation kerosene's factory price (including tax) rose from about 3,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to about 5,000 yuan/ton at the end of the year, which also led to the increase in the cost of aviation oil of the three major airlines by more than 35%year -on -year. In 2022, the domestic aviation kerosene export price was still rising, reaching a high of about 8,400 yuan/ton in June.

For ordinary passengers, the most intuitive feeling is the double increase in fuel surcharges. After the domestic route fuel surcharges have been recovered from February, they have been raised four times in the past 4 months -on June 5th, below 800 kilometers (inclusive), each passenger charges RMB 80 (February 10 is 10 in February 10 (February 10 is 10 in 10 February 10 (February 10 is 10 in 10 in 10th Yuan); Each passenger received RMB 140 (20 yuan in February) per passenger.

Corporate investigation

On the morning of June 16, Ling Qiang, executive vice president of Nanjing Taxi and Automobile Leasing Association, communicated with the local price department. The core question was whether fuel taxis should increase the price. Ling Qiang believes that the market is fiercely competitive, the price increase is difficult, and the driver's wishes are not strong. Whether the price will increase in the end is still discussing.

In 2012, when the oil price was once broken "8", Nanjing taxis raised the starting price through the form of a hearing and levied fuel surcharges. However, in Ling Qiang's view, the current situation is different.

There are two reasons. One is that the cruise taxi is facing the fierce competition of the online car. Although the period of a large -scale price war has passed, the preferential policies promoted by the platform have appeared from time to time. I pushed myself out of the market; on the other hand, there are currently more than 4,000 new energy sources in Nanjing. Although the starting price is consistent with the fuel vehicle, in terms of the starting mileage and kilometer base price, the new energy vehicle has the new energy vehicle. Weak advantages, if the fuel vehicle increases the price, consumers' tendency will be more obvious.

Ling Qiang said that the price increase requires 80%of member units to agree. But it is estimated that a considerable proportion of people are the same as their own ideas. The driver's response was not strong in 2012, indicating that everyone's understanding of the market may be deeper.

The person in charge of a taxi company stated to the Economic Observer that the taxi of the company was fully used in the contract, and the cost of rising oil prices was digested by the driver. The price increase is not an option. There are more than 100,000 online ride -hailing cars in the city, and the competition is fierce.

It is slightly different from the previous round of oil prices. Under the fierce market competition, the market is more difficult for the market to increase the price of digestive pressure through the price of terminal products. Enterprises that are affected by oil prices have to make adjustments to survive.

In 2012, No. 92 oil prices also rose all the way to a high level of 8 yuan/liter and maintained for nearly a year. That year, several courier companies rose their transportation prices. In March of that year, the data announced by the house urgently was that the total cost of fuel consumption accounted for about 20%of the overall cost of the house, and the increase in oil prices caused the cost of emergency delivery by about 2%. The impact of costs and fuel consumption costs increased sharply, and the net profit sent by the house was reduced by 3%.

But at present, there is no courier company to release the price increase signal.

Zhongtong Express said to the Economic Observation News that Zhongtong is risky through centralized procurement of oil products and procurement of advances to resist oil prices. At the same time, it is committed to optimizing the improvement of capacity resources and routing planning and loading rates. SF Holdings said in the March performance briefing that the company's overall operating model is optimized, such as network planning and optimization of vehicle operation mode to further improve the efficiency of vehicle use and risk risks of oil prices.

According to Xu Wenwen, an analyst of Longzhong Information, the continuous rise in oil prices may still lead to increased prices in courier companies. Petroleum is the mother of industry. Oil price increase will lead to the increase in the cost of the express industry and the cost of the downstream industry of various other oil. Still strong.

The person in charge of the aforementioned taxi company said that the city where it is currently is vigorously promoting the popularization of new energy taxis and provided subsidies. However, the contracting fee for taxis has been as low as about 2,000 yuan, and there are still a lot of empty cars.

Ling Qiang said that if high oil prices have been maintained, the industry's profit margin cannot be restored, it will definitely affect the entire industry for a long time.

Ke Dawei believes that the far -reaching impact of the continuous rise in oil prices is needed. "Truck drivers are originally high -risk industries. When oil prices rose to them at the bottom of the transportation chain Development method. Drivers' physical and mental stress will be very great. "

10 yuan era

The rising curve of oil prices has lasted for nearly two years. Since the second half of 2020, international crude oil prices have continued to rise from the low level of $ 30/barrel, and continued to operate above $ 100/barrel in the past two months.

The rise in international crude oil prices is the main influencing factor in the era of oil prices into the ten yuan era, but the price of crude oil is not exactly equivalent to gasoline and diesel prices. Related taxes, refining costs, and the average profit of the industry are determined. Yan Jiantao said that if the current US gasoline price is converted into an international crude oil price of about 155 US dollars/barrel, it is significantly higher than the current international crude oil price. This is related to the risk of global supply chain interruption and the trend of de -globalization and the regional industrial economy. Such a general trend has caused countries to need more oil inventory and idle oil refining capabilities, which eventually leads to much higher than the reasonable level.

Yan Jiantao said that crude oil prices have obvious seasonal characteristics. Oil prices generally fluctuate at a high level in June July and August. In 9 October, they were looking for directions, either rising or lower, and declined in November of November of the year.

From the perspective of many research institutions, in the short term, oil prices will still be in the ten yuan era. Zhuo Chuang Information Analyst Yang Xia said that international oil prices are expected to rise and difficult to rise in the short term. Affected by this, this means that the domestic oil retail price limit is likely to "five consecutive rises" (the previous calendar has risen). Li Yan, an analyst of Longzhong Information, believes that based on the current international crude oil price level, the next round of refined oil price adjustment (June 28) will show a slight upward trend.

Under the high level of oil prices, how much impact will the macro economy face? From the perspective of a number of macroeconomic experts, upstream and downstream industrial enterprises will face very different situations.

Zhai Lu, a senior director of the North Asian industrial enterprise rating, told the Economic Observation News that there will be a significant difference in the impact of oil prices on different industrial fields in the short middle period. In the current inflation environment, the upstream mining industry is minimized due to the small fixed cost. Steel, cement, and aluminum are located in the middle reaches of commodity processing enterprises that can pass most costs to downstream users.

As an example, on June 9, Rongsheng Petrochemical said on the investor interactive platform that due to the rise in crude oil prices, the prices of related products related to the crude oil industry chain have gradually risen, and the compression of production -side profits has gradually improved. Essence In April of this year, Hengli Petrochemical also publicly stated that crude oil as one of the main raw materials of the company, the price increase will lead to increased costs, but the price of downstream products will also increase. At present, the prices of some products have increased to different levels.

But for some middle and lower reaches, Zhai Lu said that industries such as buildings may be greatly affected. The bargaining ability of the engineering construction company on the value chain is quite low. Their pricing mechanism has made their cost transfer capacity very limited, and the cash conversion cycle is long. Therefore, these industries will be affected first, and the degree of influence will be the greatest. In the long run, all cyclical industries will be affected by long -term inflation pressure, because terminal demand will shrink, resulting in changes in the fundamentals of the industry, which will cause pressure on the profit margins and cash flows of all industries.

In the past ten years of experience, Xiao Yongfeng, general manager of Guangdong Mai Ruiken Industrial Co., Ltd. has never seen raw materials such as in the past two years. The clothing companies he operate are typical oil downstream industry companies.

Xiao Yongfeng introduced that the prices of raw materials have not fallen shortly in the past two years. The cost of raw material costs in the second half of last year was even about 13%to 17%. Because they are basically long -term cooperation with customers, even if they have experienced sales and plummets, the price of product prices has not changed in the past two years. Once you want to raise prices or delay the delivery period, customers will transfer orders to Vietnam, India and other countries.

In addition to raw materials, Xiao Yongfeng is still experiencing the rise in various operating costs.

Xiao Yongfeng said, "Workers' wages are rising. In order to save costs, we outsourced the back -end packaging of clothing, and the number of employees has been reduced from the previous 110 people to the current 60 people; However, the profit margin of this bank is only about 10%, so our profit margin continues to fall; in order to reduce the pressure of the fabric increase, we can only sign a coordinated contract with upstream suppliers and purchase a certain amount of cloth every year. Of course, this will also bring us bringing us bring us bring us bring us bring us bring us bring us bring us bring us bring us bring us bring us bring us bring us bring us bring us bring us bring us bring us bring us bring us bring us bringing us bring us bring us bring us bring us bring us bring us bring us bring us bring us bring us brings us to us. A certain inventory pressure. "

Macro data also confirms the feelings of entrepreneurs. According to the report released by CICC, the PPI increase in the upstream industry in May is still at a high level of 13.1%, and the increase in midstream PPI and downstream PPIs fell to 0.44%and 0.87%, respectively. %, In a historical high, and the middle and lower reaches, especially downstream, the proportion of profit is in a state of continuous compression.

From historical experience, when the price of oil can usher in a decline, no one can make precise judgments. However, Yan Jiantao's warning said that for downstream companies, the lower international oil prices, the better, the reasonable level should be at the range of $ 65-85/barrel. Oil prices are too low, which means that the demand for oil is sluggish, which shows that economic operations are facing downward pressure, and the days of enterprises are not good; if the oil price is too high, if the energy expenditure of kerosene gas is more than 7%, the oil price is equivalent to $ 150. $ 150 The speed of energy expenditure will be higher than the speed of economic development. The cost of consumer energy is too high, which means that the economy is depressed and oil prices have plummeted.

Longer change

Because of the continuous rise in oil prices, Wu Shan changed his way of travel.

When purchasing a car in Zhuzhou in Hunan in 2019, fuel saving is the key influencing factor for Wu Shan to choose a vehicle. She said: "Even ordinary families like us, even if the price of oil rises a few cents, will pay much attention. Each time we refuel, we dare to add one or two hundred. Previously, in order to save fuel, we would drive to refuel at gas stations with preferential activities. When I heard a colleague say that a bank credit card has a preferential activity on Monday, he will do not get trouble to get a credit card. "Every weekend, Wu Shan needs to accompany his daughter to a training course more than ten kilometers away from home. Starting in April this year, she replaced the way of driving and picking up the bus. She said that it costs nearly 30 yuan to drive back and forth, and the bus only costs 8 yuan, even if a single trip takes a single trip from 20 minutes to 1 hour.

In order to save money, she also specially spent 2,000 yuan to buy an electric vehicle for commuting. Under the current high oil price, this price can only be added to four boxes of oil.

In 2012, when oil prices rose all the way to a high of 8 yuan/liter, the national car ownership was 121 million; ten years later, the data was 307 million, of which new energy vehicles still accounted for only 2.90%. The rise in oil prices is gradually affecting people's daily life and decision -making, and has promoted some longer changes.

New energy vehicle manufacturers have begun to cheer.

On May 27, Shen Hui, chairman of Weimar Automobile, released Weibo and said: "Now 92 gasoline has entered 9 yuan. There is no way to provide tight supply and demand relationship. After calculating, a pure electric vehicle can save a fuel vehicle for 10 years. According to this trend, the fuel vehicle is not worthy of being a pure electric vehicle opponent. Hybrid is the real opponent worthy of attention. "

Factors such as the recent purchase tax reduction policy for new energy vehicles, the China Automobile Industry Association data shows that the production and sales of domestic new energy vehicles in May were 466,000 and 447,000, respectively, with a month -on -month increase of 49.5%and 49.6%, a year -on -year increase of 1.11.1 Note. The monthly delivery volume of a number of car companies has achieved a circular increase of year -on -year, and the delivery volume of ideals, Xiaopeng, Nezha, etc. have exceeded 10,000.

Zhai Lu said: "In the long run, all cyclical industries will be affected by long -term inflation pressure, because terminal demand will shrink, resulting in changes in the fundamentals of the industry, and pressure on the profit margins and cash flows of all industries."

As a housewife, Wu Shan has felt the rise in various food prices. The salary has not risen for three years, and the price of oil has risen for three years. The monthly income of two couples is about 10,000 yuan per month, which has been counted as a middle income level in the local area. Deducting a monthly loan of 4,000 yuan, a living expenses of 3,000 yuan, and a child's tuition of 1,000 yuan, basically there are basically left, so life can only be considered. Three years ago, the price of local buffet meals was basically 39 yuan or 59 yuan, and the lowest was 79 yuan. There are 30 eggs, and the price has also risen from 17 yuan to the previous year to 23 yuan.

Wu Shan said, "How good it would be before the price of various foods returned to the epidemic."

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