Xiaopeng Automobile, the hardest day is coming

On the day Xiaopeng released his financial report, two things grabbed the limelight of the financial report.

The first one is that the former Apple engineer was accused of stealing the autonomous driving commercial secret before changing Xiaopeng Automobile.

The second one is that netizens broke the news that Xiaopeng Automobile could not apply for a Shanghai green brand, and Xiaopeng Automobile said that it had fully recovered.

These two things are related to the brand image, one thing to sell. In the second quarter, Xiaopeng encountered both things.

97.7%

This is the minimum growth rate since it was launched.

In the new forces of car construction, Xiaopeng's special thing is that its product price configuration is more complete. Through different versions and different configurations, it covers a price segment of 170,000 to 350,000. At the same time, Xiaopeng has not staged like Weilai. Before Q2, Xiaopeng's growth rate was very considerable, and almost 2-3 times the growth of almost every quarter.

However, the revenue of this quarter was 7.436 billion, a year -on -year increase of 97.7%, a month -on -month decline.

But this may be next

But this may be the fastest growth rate in the next few quarters.

In the financial report, Xiaopeng's estimated revenue in the third quarter was 6.8 billion to 7.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 3%to 9%from the previous quarter, a decline in the third quarter in a row; a year -on -year growth rate of 13.0%to 20.8%.

The situation of Xiaopeng Q2's financial report is very similar. The growth rate is declining and looking forward to the new SUV, but the two are delicate.

The previous sales volume was supported by ONE, and L9, which is about to be delivered, is also SUV, which has a certain overlap. L9 will affect ONE. At this time, the decline of the ideal ONE was not surprising.

However, Xiaopeng's upcoming G9 is a SUV. The previous one was the G3 series released in 2018. The G9 is more like the update of G3. In theory, it will not affect the two sedan models of P5 and P7.

From the financial report, Xiaopeng's delivery in the third quarter was very pessimistic. It is expected that in the third quarter of the third quarter, the vehicle delivery volume will fall from 29,000 to 31,000, a 10%to 16%month -on -month.

In July, 11,524 vehicles have been delivered, and it may not be sold for 10,000 a month in August to September.

Such pessimistic expectations even surprised even rating agencies, and Creditkin lowered its US stock target price by 28%to $ 36.

You know, even in April, the most tense quarter of the car is still 9002 units, which may mean that not only the G3 series models, the progress of the two sedan models of P5 and P7 is not ideal.

Looking at the sales trend, the P5 is a new model released last year. The quarterly change is still on the rise. In the first half of the year, the monthly sales volume was mentioned to 5,000 units, even not even as P7 released in 2020.

P7 has not been good. It has declined in two consecutive quarters for two consecutive quarters. Q2 decreases 18%than Q1, and Q1 decreases 9%from Q4 last year.

This is a bad trend, especially Xiaopeng is at a critical stage of burning money for sales.

78438 yuan

Since the beginning of this year, many car companies have increased prices due to the tight supply chain, but Xiaopeng has been reducing prices.

Many media reports that Xiaopeng Xiaopeng offline stores have launched discounts from mid -July, with a maximum discount of 20,000 yuan.

In fact, in May, Xiaopeng has made configuration adjustments to adjust the intelligent auxiliary driving system (NGP) to free standard. However, because the free charging rights and interests, free charging piles and installation rights were canceled at that time, the owner was not obvious about price perception.

This time, Xiaopeng was not installed, a showdown, direct price reduction and selection rights.

But what about the effect?

In July, Xiaopeng's delivery was 11524, a decrease of 25%month -on -month. Among them, the P7 fell 20%, and the P5 fell sharply by 36%. At least half a month's promotional promotion has not played a good effect. And combined with the sales forecast of August to September, the price reduction promotion has obviously did not meet the expectations.

But there will be more negative effects brought by price reduction.

1. Brand. Price reduction promotion is not necessarily a good thing. In order to maintain the brand tone, Weilai deliberately made a new brand for the land price. Xiaopeng's own price paragraph is lower than Weilai and ideals, which will be restrained for the G9 that enters the high -end G9.

2. Profit. In the second quarter, Xiaopeng's gross profit margin fell below 10%again, the first time since last year. Xiaopeng Automobile was originally lower than Weilai and the ideal gross profit margin, and now continues to decline.

Q2's net loss was 2.7 billion, an increase of 126%year -on -year, and 59%month -on -month. From Q3 in 2020 to the present, Xiaopeng has lost 11.2 billion.

Combined with sales calculations, Xiaopeng's ASP (average price) was 201,600 yuan, which was lower than 206,000 yuan in the same period last year; but each car lost 78,438 yuan, which was higher than 68,686 yuan in the same period last year. Selling a car earns less and lose more.

Losses also made Xiaopeng's debt indicators look good before. As of the end of the Q2 quarter, Xiaopeng's asset -liability ratio was 42.3%, a new high since listing; the mobile ratio was 1.97 times, which was a new low since listing.

However, due to the previous continuous financing and listing on the two exchanges of Hong Kong and the United States, Xiaopeng's cash filling was as high as 41.3 billion, and the debt pressure was not great.

Xiaopeng did not reach the background of the backwater, but the first day when the new forces were closed, the first day was over.

The next product performance becomes particularly critical. This year's G9, next year's B -class car, C -class car, upgrade and modified P7.

2 minutes, 200km

As a large 5-seater SUV, the price range is expected to be 30,000 to 400,000. If the progress is smooth, Xiaopeng's next gross profit level will change. Moreover, the growth rate of Xiaopeng's growth, sales and administrative expenses this quarter decreased, with R & D expenses of 1.265 billion, and R & D expense ratio (R & D/revenue) was 17%, a decrease of 6 points from the same period last year. Sales and administrative costs were 1.665 billion yuan, and the cost rate was 22.4%, a year -on -year decrease of 5 points.

Xiaopeng Automobile said:

"We believe our investment in research and development will enter the harvest period with the launch of a number of new products in the next few quarters."

President Gu Hongdi believes that P7 will continue to perform strongly next year. The G9 will exceed the delivery of P7.

If the G9 performance is smooth, it may improve the profit performance of Xiaopeng Automobile. But the premise is really selling well.

The booking data released by Xiaopeng showed that from the 24 hours of reservation, Xiaopeng G9's order volume reached 22,819 units. Wei Xiaoli has its own stable customer base, and there is no doubt that the G9 will be sold in the early stage.

Just like P5, the real challenge of G9 is whether the monthly delivery can be stable.

Weilai's previous car is that the main model ES6 still has not stabilized to achieve a monthly delivery of 5,000.

The environment of G9 is worse than Weilai ES6 and EC6. In the second half of this year, the ideal L9 and Weilai ES7 will be delivered. In addition, BYD (Song, Yuan, Tang), Aion Y, Tesla (Tesla (Tesla (Aion Y), Tesla ( In explosive models such as Model Y), G9 has to spell a bayonet with a lot of manufacturers.

It is unrealistic to change the status quo by relying on the G9 model, Xiaopeng said:

"It will launch a B -class car and a C -Class next year. Among them, the B -class car is expected to launch in the first half of next year to compete with Model Y; the latter will be launched in the second half of next year to anchor the high -end market."

In the high -end market, in addition to assisting driving technology, Xiaopeng has also become an important bargaining chip. In May, the configuration adjustment was already closer. At the financial report communication meeting, He Xiaopeng said:

"From G9, Xiaopeng Automobile's adhering to long -term investment and independent research and development in electrifying technology will laid the leading advantage of our technology in addition to intelligentization, and we will also believe that it will enter the technical leading advantage, and it will be consumers as consumers. Bring great improvement of experience.

Xiaopeng officially declared that the G9 could be "charged for 5 minutes and 200 kilometers". In order to support the 800 volt super fast charging model, Xiaopeng began to fully laid the 480kW self -operated supercharging station in August. It plans to reach hundreds of next year.

However, this experience is only the result of specific conditions in the laboratory. The ideal second quarterly report also mentioned that it can be charged for 400 kilometers in 10 minutes. Only when you can experience it, you still have to wait for the G9 to be verified.

If domestic manufacturers can make breakthroughs in intelligence and electrification, this will be a huge leap for the new energy vehicle industry. However, at least in the past few quarters, Xiaopeng is going to live a bitter life.

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