Oil price "four consecutive declines", here!

Recently, the reporter Du Yumeng recently, under multiple factors such as the weak economic data of multiple countries affect the growth of oil demand and the increase in the increase in the unexpected increase of the US EIA crude oil inventory. Affected by this, the decline of domestic refined oil retail is expected to continue to expand. On August 9, the National Development and Reform Commission released news that since 24:00 on August 9, 2022, domestic auto and diesel prices (standard products, the same below) have been reduced by 130 yuan and 125 yuan per ton, respectively. The folding price 92 gasoline, No. 95 gasoline, and No. 0 diesel have been reduced by 0.10 yuan, 0.11 yuan, and 0.11 yuan, respectively. From the perspective of social oil costs, Ma Jiancai, an analyst at Golden Lianchuang Reinforcement Oil, told the Securities Daily that after this round of price adjustment was fulfilled, domestic end users' oil cost costs will be further reduced. For example, calculated according to a small car with a fuel tank capacity of 50L, it will spend about 5 yuan for a box 92 gasoline; in terms of diesel, calculate the large truck with a fuel tank with a capacity of 160L. 17.6 yuan. The reporter sorted out and found that after the price adjustment was landed, the retail price of the refined oil product during the year will go through 15 adjustments, which is manifested as "ten rises and five declines." Among them, after the implementation of the policy, the retail price of the refined oil products ushered in the first "four consecutive declines" during the year, and it was also the first "four consecutive declines" since 2019. From the perspective of price changes since this year, after the rise and fall, gasoline and diesel have risen a total of 1610 yuan/ton, 1550 yuan/ton, respectively. Yuan, 1.32 yuan. From the perspective of the retail price of refined oil only since 24:00 on June 28, the cumulative declines of gasoline and diesel are 1110 yuan/ton, 1070 yuan/ton, respectively. Gasoline and No. 0 diesel are reduced by 0.87 yuan, 0.92 yuan, and 0.91 yuan, respectively. The industry has expected in the industry for the reduction of the retail price of refined oil oil. In this regard, the change rate from the crude oil changes from the positive rotation during the valuation cycle can be seen. Data calculated by Kim Lianchuang showed that from July 27 to August 3, the rate of crude oil changes was -0.35%, 1.74%, 1.86%, 2.52%, 1.30%, and 0.78%in order. As of August 3, the average price of crude oil varieties reference at that time was still $ 101.83/barrel, corresponding to the raising of domestic gasoline and diesel retail prices. But since then, the change rate of crude oil has not only risen from positive, but also increased day by day. That is, since the seventh working day on August 4, the change rate of crude oil is -0.12%, -1.09%, -1.64%, -1.76%. In other words, as of the tenth working day of August 9, the average price of reference to crude oil was reduced to $ 99.26/barrel, corresponding to the reduction of domestic gasoline and diesel retail prices. In the opinion of Zhuo Chuang Information Reinforcement Oil analyst, the international crude oil supply side is still restricted in the early stage of this round of pricing cycle, which supports the strong trend of international oil prices. At that time, the rate of changes in the domestic reference crude oil was still in the scope. However, with the expected amendments to the demand for oil in the United States, the demand for gasoline has decreased significantly, the increase in US crude oil inventory increased, and various factors have led to the low vibration of international oil prices in the later period of the valuation cycle. In general, in the context of dual weak supply and demand, international oil prices are high or normal. Looking forward to the market outlook, Yang Xia believes that we need to pay attention to the support of US $ 90/barrel, and be alert to the risk of breaking down. From a macro perspective, the risk of market concerns is significantly reduced compared with the previous, which can be seen from the rebound of risk assets that short -term pressure on the oil market has decreased. However, from the fundamental point of view, demand has begun to shrink, especially in the United States and Europe's demand for gasoline decline, and market concerns are concerned about reality. Therefore, although OPEC+controls the output to support oil prices, the demand is reduced and cannot be changed. The international oil prices are weak and fluctuated. The new round of refined oil retail prices can be adjusted to save the "five consecutive declines". Ma Jiancai told reporters that according to the Golden Lianchuang monitoring model, after entering a new round of valuation cycle, the rate of change in crude oil at the first working day was -4%, corresponding to the reduction of 260 yuan/ton for gasoline and diesel. At present, the probability of a new round of refined oil retail price adjustment is higher.

Picture | Site Cool Hero Bao Map.com

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