Oil prices are expected to occur in the industry in the industry during the year.

Reporter Du Yumeng

Recently, the weak economic data of many countries affects the growth of oil demand, coupled with multiple factors such as EIA crude oil inventory, and other factors, international crude oil prices are under pressure. Affected by this, the price of domestic refined oil retail will continue to increase.

On August 9, the National Development and Reform Commission released news that since 24:00 on August 9, 2022, domestic auto and diesel prices (standard products, the same below) have been reduced by 130 yuan and 125 yuan per ton, respectively. The folding price 92 gasoline, No. 95 gasoline, and No. 0 diesel have been reduced by 0.10 yuan, 0.11 yuan, and 0.11 yuan, respectively.

Ma Jiancai, an analyst at Jinlianchuang Oil Oil, told a reporter from the Securities Daily that after this round of prices, the cost of oil use of domestic end users will be further reduced. For example, calculated according to a small car with a fuel tank capacity of 50L, it will spend about 5 yuan for a box 92 gasoline; in terms of diesel, calculate the large truck with a fuel tank with a capacity of 160L. 17.6 yuan.

The reporter sorted out and found that after the price adjustment was landed, the retail price of the refined oil product during the year has gone through 15 adjustments, showing a "ten rising and five declines". Among them, after the implementation of this down reduction, the retail price of refined oil will achieve a "four consecutive declines", and it is also the first "four consecutive declines" since 2019.

Since the beginning of this year, gasoline and diesel have increased by 1610 yuan/ton, 1550 yuan/ton, respectively. The folding price 92 gasoline, No. 95 gasoline, and No. 0 diesel are 1.26 yuan, 1.34 yuan, and 1.32 yuan, respectively. From the perspective of the "four consecutive declines" of refined oil retail prices since 24:00 on June 28, the cumulative declines of gasoline and diesel are 1110 yuan/ton, 1070 yuan/ton, respectively. No. 0 diesel is reduced by 0.87 yuan, 0.92 yuan, and 0.91 yuan, respectively.

The industry has expected in the industry for the reduction of the retail price of refined oil oil. This can be seen from positive to negatives from a positive to negative in the valuation cycle.

Data calculated by Kim Lianchuang showed that from July 27 to August 3, the rate of crude oil changes was -0.35%, 1.74%, 1.86%, 2.52%, 1.30%, and 0.78%in order. As of August 3, the average price of crude oil varieties reference at that time was still $ 101.83/barrel, and the retail price of domestic gasoline and diesel should be increased by 50 yuan/ton. But then, the change rate of crude oil is not only rising from positive, but also increased day by day. Since the seventh working day on August 4, the rate of crude oil changes is -0.12%, -1.09%, -164%, -176%. In other words, as of the tenth working day of August 9, the average price of reference to crude oil was reduced to $ 99.26/barrel, corresponding to the reduction of domestic gasoline and diesel retail prices.

In the opinion of Zhuo Chuang Information Reinforcement Oil analyst, the international crude oil supply side is still restricted in the early stage of this round of pricing cycle, which supports the strong trend of international oil prices. At that time However, with the expected amendments to the demand for oil in the United States, the demand for gasoline has decreased significantly, the increase in US crude oil inventory increased, and various factors have led to the lower international oil prices in the period of the pricing cycle. In general, in the context of dual weak supply and demand, international oil prices are high or normal.

Looking forward to the market outlook, Yang Xia believes that we need to pay attention to the support of US $ 90/barrel, and be alert to the risk of breaking down. From a macro perspective, the risk of market concerns is significantly reduced compared with the previous, which can be seen from the rebound of risk assets that short -term pressure on the oil market has decreased. However, from the fundamental point of view, demand has begun to shrink, especially in the United States and Europe's demand for gasoline decline, and market concerns are concerned about reality. Therefore, although the "OPEC+control output" supports oil prices, the demand is reduced and cannot be changed. The international oil prices are weak and fluctuated. The adjustment of the retail price of the new round of refined oil products has a "five consecutive declines".

Ma Jiancai told reporters that according to the Golden Lianchuang monitoring model, after entering a new round of valuation cycle, the rate of change in crude oil at the first working day was -4%, corresponding to the reduction of 260 yuan/ton for gasoline and diesel. At present, the probability of a new round of refined oil retail price is a high probability.

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