Oil prices have ushered in the first "four consecutive drops" in 3 years. What is the probability of "five consecutive drops"?

Fengkou Finance reporter Lou Hua

At 24:00 today (9th), a new round of domestic oil -based price adjustment windows will be opened.

In this valuation cycle, the international oil price continues to fluctuate downward, and the change rate of crude oil has changed from a positive value. The retail price of refined oil in this round is encountered in the "four consecutive declines" situation. According to the National Development and Reform Commission, at 24 o'clock on August 9th, the retail price of diesel and diesel was reduced by 130 yuan and 125 yuan, respectively, and the price was 92#gasoline, 95#gasoline, 0#diesel, respectively. Yuan.

This is the first "four consecutive declines" during the year, and it is also the first "four consecutive declines" since 2019. Does this mean that oil prices will continue to fall or usher in an inflection point. How far is the "five consecutive falls"? Wind Financial reporter conducted an investigation.

International crude oil center

The trend of domestic oil prices fluctuates with international oil prices. Why is there a situation of high and low? Zhuochuang Information refined oil analyst Yang Xia told the reporter of Fengkou Finance that in the early stage of this pricing cycle, international crude oil is still limited, supporting the strong trend of oil prices, and the rate of changes in domestic crude oil is still at the scope. However, the peak demand for summer demand in the United States is expected to be amended, the demand for gasoline has decreased significantly, and the increase in US crude oil inventory has increased, which has led to a decrease in international oil prices. In short, under the background of the dual weakness of supply and demand, high volatility is normal. Affected by this, the change rate of crude oil in China is just turning.

According to the monitoring of the National Development and Reform Commission's price monitoring center, the international oil prices continued to decline during this round of oil -adjustment cycle (July 26 -August 8), and the London Brent and WTI oil prices in New York fell to the low position since the Russian and Ukraine war in February. On average, the price of fuel prices in the two cities decreased by 3.44%from the previous round.

During the price adjustment cycle, the manufacturing data of major countries around the world has been weak. Among them, the euro zone PMI index fell below the 50th water division of the 50th, and the US PMI index also dropped to the lowest value in the past two years. Policies have increased the concerns of the market's decline in economic downturn and decline in crude oil; recently, US crude oil commercial inventory and gasoline inventory have increased significantly by many times. At present, the oil prices in London and WIT in New York have fallen to $ 96 and $ 90 per barrel of $ 90, respectively. Level.

Therefore, at 24:00 on August 9th, the domestic refined oil retail price limit will be the first "four consecutive decline" situation during the year.

Oil price reduction affects geometry?

On August 9th, the National Development and Reform Commission released that at 24:00 on August 9th, the retail price of traffic diesel was reduced by 130 and 125 yuan per ton, respectively, and the price of 92#gasoline, 95#gasoline, and 0#diesel downgraded 0.10, 0.11, and 0.11, respectively. Yuan. After the implementation of the policy, the first "four consecutive declines" during the year will be reached, and it will also become the first "four consecutive declines" since 2019. Since the "Four Company Falls", the cumulative decline in steam and diesel has been 1110 and 1070 yuan, and the price is 92#gasoline, 95#gasoline, and 0#diesel have lowered 0.87, 0.92, and 0.91 yuan, respectively. Judging from the full year of 2022, after the price adjustment landing, the retail price limit of the refined oil will be adjusted by 15 times, of which 10 times will be adjusted and 5 times will be reduced. /Ton, 1550 yuan/ton, the discount price of 92#gasoline, 95#gasoline, and 0#diesel are 1.26 yuan, 1.34 yuan, and 1.32 yuan, respectively.

For Qingdao, the retail price increase to 92#gasoline 8.42 yuan per liter, 95#gasoline per liter of 9.03 yuan, 98#gasoline per liter of 9.75 yuan, 0#car firewood per liter of 8.12 yuan, -10#car firewood per liter per liter 8.75 yuan. This price adjustment 92 gasoline is reduced by 0.1 yuan/liter, 95 gasoline is reduced by 0.11 yuan/lit Essence

After the retail price of refined oil products was reduced, the cost of oil consumers in short -term residents decreased. Taking a house with a fuel tank capacity of 50L as an example, the full box of 92#gasoline will spend about 5 yuan less than before. In the logistics industry, a heavy truck with a monthly run of 10,000 kilometers and a fuel consumption of 38L per 100 kilometers is an example. Before the next price adjustment window is opened, the fuel cost of a single car will be reduced by about 195 yuan.

On the evening of the 9th, the reporter visited a number of gas stations and found that because it was the peak tourist season in Qingdao, the refueling vehicles did not be affected by the reduction of prices. They were relatively stable, and the number of license plate numbers in the field increased significantly.

The zero price difference between steam and diesel has a significant narrowing

During this valuation cycle, international crude oil prices once showed a significant rise. The change rate of crude oil at the beginning of the rising channel at the beginning of the cycle was at the beginning of the rising channel, boosting the atmosphere of the domestic refined oil market. In addition, domestic rainfall decreased in August, the operating rates of factory and mines and infrastructure in some areas increased significantly, and the travel rate of residents had also increased. The industry's confidence in the market market increased, and the domestic refined oil wholesale market once performed active. Affected by this, at the beginning of this cycle, the shipments of domestic oil sales units have improved significantly, and the preliminary wholesale price is relatively low, so the prices of various sales units have risen significantly. Although the later crude oil fluctuated again, the market watched the emotions resurgence, and the wholesale price of the refined oil products of the sales unit fell, but the average price still increased significantly compared with the beginning of the cycle, resulting in a significant narrowing of the zero price difference.

"As of August 8th, the main domestic 92#gasoline theoretical profits were 1925 yuan/ton, and local refineries 92#gasoline theoretical profits were 2740 yuan/ton. In terms of diesel, domestic main business 0#diesel theoretical profits were 1042 yuan/ Tons, local refineries 0#diesel theoretical profits are 1674 yuan/ton. "Meng Peng, a refined oil analyst, told reporters from Fengkou Finance that the next valuation cycle, the price of crude oil or continuing the fluctuation of the trend, and the change rate of crude oil changes in the new cycle The negative value will still start, and the news will not boost the domestic refined oil market. Affected by this, it is expected that domestic refined oil wholesale prices or overall showing a steady decline, but the "Golden Nine Silver Ten" is about to come. The seller is optimistic about the later market. It is expected that the decline in the zero price is difficult to increase significantly. Metering of refined oil prices and "five consecutive declines" may be possible

Will oil prices continue to fall? "In the next cycle, in terms of international crude oil, pay attention to the support of US $ 90/barrel, and be alert to the risk of breaking the throne." Refined oil analyst Yang Xia told the reporter of the wind and finance that from the macro perspective, the market is concerned about the risk of recession. It is significantly reduced compared to the previous, which can be seen from the rebound of risk assets that short -term pressure on the oil market decreases. However, from a fundamental point of view, demand has begun to shrink, especially in the United States and Europe's demand for gasoline, and the market is concerned that the decline expectations will become a reality. Therefore, although OPEC+controls the output to support oil prices, the reduction of demand cannot be changed, and international oil prices are weak. At the beginning of a new round of price adjustment cycle, the negative range of domestic crude oil changes at the domestic reference means that the new round of refined oil retail price adjustment is possible to save the "five consecutive declines", and the price adjustment window is at 24:00 on August 23.

In this regard, the National Development and Reform Commission's price monitoring center predicts that oil prices may run weakly in the short term, but there are still many uncertain factors affecting oil prices. In terms of supply, the number of US shale oil rigs rose to a two -year high of 600 seats; Libyan crude oil production was restored; OPEC+at the beginning of the month increased the target of increasing production by 100,000 barrels per day. Generally speaking, the increase in crude oil supply, coupled with the expected economic weakened and demand decline, will jointly lead to the weakened operation of oil prices. However, the focus is still on the impact of changes in geopolitical situations on oil prices, such as the hype of Russian crude oil export prices in Western countries, as well as the impact of climate change and the impact of the hurricane season on production.

"The change rate of the first working days of entering a new round of valuation cycle was -4%, and the corresponding 260 yuan/ton corresponds to the reduction of gasoline and diesel." Jin Lianchuang Analyst Ma Jiancai said in an interview with the reporter of the Trone Finance and said that due to the current international market weighing and demand for two supply and demand In the big factors, investors continue to wait and see, and the probability of a new round of price adjustment "five consecutive declines" is high.

The reporter's investigation found that market institutions generally predict that from the current international market crude oil supply and demand, the probability of adjusting the price of refined oil in the next round of refined oil products is higher.

"According to the performance of existing crude oil futures, it is temporarily lowered within the next round of the retail price of refined oil. Senior analyst Hu Xue said.

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