In July, the consumption index released the car market to enter a stable period

Recently, the China Automobile Circulation Association released the analysis of the car consumption index in July 2022 and the June full -caliber passenger car market analysis. The auto consumption index in July was 81.6, which was basically the same as last month, and the automotive market entered a stable period. As for the market in the second half of the year, most dealers are more optimistic.

Car sales in June increased significantly

Statistics show that due to the year-on-year decline in sales in the first five months, especially in 4 or 5 months, sales declined significantly, which led to a cumulative sales of 9.265 million units from January to June this year, and the sales volume decreased by 12.2%from the same period in the first half of the year.

But by June, under the support of good policies in various places, the issue of funds from automotive dealers has improved. In addition, from June 1st, some passenger vehicles have been reduced by half of the new vehicle purchase tax. The entire country will reduce the purchase tax of 7.1 billion yuan in vehicle purchase tax throughout the country and 1.097 million vehicles.

With a number of favorable stimuli, in June of this year, the sales of passenger cars increased significantly. The sales volume of full -caliber passenger vehicles was 1.952 million units, an increase of 45.9%month -on -month, and a year -on -year increase of 14.1%.

In terms of brands, the sales volume of luxury, joint venture, and independent brands in June was 377,000, 789,000, and 786,000, respectively, an increase of 12.7%, 7.1%, and 23%year -on -year; %. However, compared with the cumulative sales volume in 2021, the sales of the three major brands have declined, and the decline in joint ventures is particularly significant, a decrease of 21.9%. In June, domestic cars occupied 96.3%of the market share.

In the model, the car is still the main force of sales growth. In June, a cumulative sales of 980,000 units, an increase of 18.1%year -on -year; SUV sales were 871,000 waves, a year -on -year increase of 13%. In June, sales of 81,000 units, a decrease of 7.9%year -on -year, and a cumulative sales of 26.4%from the previous year.

It is worth noting that although in recent years, with the sinking of the consumer market and the consumption capacity of third- and fourth -tier cities, the growth of the passenger car market is still driven by second -tier cities. Car sales in first to fifth -tier cities increased by 9.2%, 22%, 14.6%, 8.8%, and 10.4%year -on -year, respectively.

7, 8 months, car sales entered a stable period

With the high temperature season in July and August, the automotive market entered the off -season of traditional car purchase. Based on the prevention and control of the epidemic, the demand for car purchase was released in advance. In July this year, the car demand index was 74.6, which was lower than last month. The consumption index is 81.6, which is slightly higher than last month.

In this regard, the analysis of the China Automotive Circulation Association believes that from the perspective of the consumer environment, the state has recently introduced passenger vehicles to reduce purchase tax and local governments to introduce a series of promotional expenses. Essence On the other hand, the national epidemic prevention and control situation is better as a whole, and the liquidity of personnel is increasing, which is conducive to the market heating.

As for consumption willingness and market performance, the association believes that under the stimulus of the recent promotional expenses policies, consumers' willingness to buy car purchase has increased, but due to the decrease in income and weakened consumption capacity, plus traditional sales off -season in July and August, right The increase in consumption willingness has a certain inhibitory effect. The sales volume is expected to be basically flat or slightly fluctuating from July. In addition, due to the impact of the epidemic and policies, the fluctuation of automobile sales also needs to see the implementation effect of the epidemic and policies.

Second -hand car trading off the off -season pick -up market

As a traditional second -hand car trading off -season, the trading trend in July showed that since the second week, the market has not continued the growth momentum at the end of June, and it has shifted to slow down, but the overall scale is slightly better than June.

In July, the second -hand car manager index was 46.3%, and the used car market was still in a downturn. On the one hand, due to weather and epidemic factors, offline customers decreased, and the number of online collective passenger volume increased; affected by the continuous exploring price of new cars, the price of second -hand cars also changed a lot, and consumers held a wait -and -see attitude; from the inventory situation, from the inventory situation Seeing that the reduction of the purchase tax of some new cars has increased significantly, the sales volume of the new car market has rebounded significantly. It is expected that the second -hand car replacement rate will also increase in July. From the perspective of inventory weeks, it has been extended 3 days from June and reached about 50 days.

Regarding the market expectations in August, most car dealers believe that they may get out of the off -season. The severe weather of high temperature and rain will gradually decrease, the passenger flow will increase, and the impact of the epidemic will be effectively controlled again. The operating situation of the car market will gradually improve, and sales will increase.

Dealers are optimistic about the car market in the second half of the year

Regarding the market expectations of the second half of the year, the latest issue of the "China Automobile Dealer Inventory Early Warning Index Survey" released by the China Automobile Distribution Association shows that in July 2022, the Chinese automobile dealer inventory early warning index was 54.4%, an increase of 2.1 percentage points year -on -year, month -on -month, and month -on Rising by 4.9 percentage points, the inventory early warning index is located above the Rongku Line. The North District Index is 51.5%, the Eastern District Index is 55.3%, the Western District Index is 50.5%, and the South District Index is 51.6%. Imported and luxurious brands, mainstream joint venture brands, and independent brand indexes in July increased. In order to ensure the previous backlog orders and the current market demand, dealers have accelerated the speed of replenishment, and various brand type indexes increase.

The decrease of the purchase tax at a minest tax in June has greatly stimulated the vitality of the market. In addition, manufacturers and dealers' impact goals have also increased the promotional efforts in late June. Some market demand in July. The survey shows that dealers are more optimistic about the auto market in the second half of the year. Thanks to policy support, nearly 40%of dealers are optimistic about the market in the second half of the year, and generally believe that sales volume increases by 10%-20%year-on-year; nearly 30%of dealers believe that sales are the same as last year.

In August, with the launch of the Chongqing International Auto Show and the small auto shows of various places, the launch of e -commerce activities such as 818, and the release of household car purchase demand for the opening season; The provincial and cities have successively introduced a second wave of subsidy policies, which constitutes a stable support for the regional auto market. Comprehensive estimates that the automotive market in August is better than the same period last year.

The China Automobile Circulation Association recommends that the uncertainty of the automotive market will increase in the future. Dealers should rationally estimate the actual market demand based on the actual situation, rationally control the level of inventory, and do not relax the protection of the epidemic.

Reporter Zhu Rong

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