You who are not optimistic, you can’t afford the wind and waves of unmanned retail

Edit | Yu Bin

Produced | Chaoqi.com "Yu See Column"

Recently, Friendship, the number one in the domestic unmanned retail market share, was reported that the news of sprinting in Hong Kong stocks was rumored. It is reported that Youbao has submitted a listing prospectus to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, and it is only left to the market.

It is worth noting that this is not the first listing of Youbao.

As early as 2016, Youbao was successfully listed on the New Third Board, but for various reasons, it quickly chose to delist. Since then, it has also reported to land on the GEM, but this plan has also been announced in early 2021.

Can Yubao, who is now in Hong Kong stocks? Can it be favored by well -known investment institutions such as Ant Group and CICC Capital, can it prove its strength in Hong Kong stocks?

It should be pointed out that although the head position has been seized on the unmanned retail track, this track still has a strong unknown, so Youbao's future imagination space will still have a question mark. In addition, the problems of not good financial data, the status quo of continuous losses, and the clearance reduction of large shareholders Haier are also testing whether it can be continuously optimistic.

Performance is worrying, huge losses, and it is difficult to do with Youbao business

According to statistics, as of the end of last year, Youbao has covered more than 100,000 automatic vending machine points in 288 cities and 31 provincial administrative regions in China. Essence

However, Yubao's performance does not seem to match its industry status.

According to the financial report data, Youbao's revenue in recent years is not stable. Due to the impact of the epidemic and economic environment, it first encountered a sharp decline in revenue in 2020. Although revenue in 2021 has increased, it has increased in 2021. It has not yet reached the level of 2019, only 2.676 billion yuan, which can be said to be in the situation of stagnation in revenue growth.

In addition, the severe loss of Youbao also made it look optimistic.

In 2019, the company can also achieve a net profit of nearly 40 million yuan, but from 2020 to 2021, Youbao loses 1.184 billion yuan and 188 million yuan, respectively. The business of unmanned retail does not seem to be as easy to do.

What is even more unfavorable is that Youbao cannot prove his future profit expectations, because its gross profit margin performance is also bad. From 2019 to 2021, the company's gross profit margin is 48.7%, 29.4%, and 41.1%, respectively. This fluctuation and decline profitability is difficult to speak well.

So why did Youbao encounter such a huge performance landslide in the past two years, especially in 2020? According to the official explanation of Youbao, under the influence of the epidemic, it has to turn off some automatic sales machines and mini KTVs, which will lead to negatively affected passenger flow and sales activities.

You can take a closer look at Youbao's business layout. Unlike the unmanned retail operators in everyone's impression, there are actually four main businesses under Youbao, which are smart retail business, supply chain operation services, digital value -added services and digital value -added services and digital value -added services and digital value -added services. Other business.

Among them, smart retail is the automatic vending machine we are familiar with, and the supply chain transportation means that it is returned through commodity wholesale, machine sales and leasing, and related hardware support services. Digital value -added services mainly refer to the advertising business based on unmanned retail terminals. Others Business refers to the company's mini KTV service.

At present, smart retail business is the core source of revenue of Youbao. In the past 2021, the business occupied more than 70 % of the company's total revenue.

And from the analysis of revenue composition why Youbao's performance is not good, it is definitely the first reason that it is definitely the first reason that it depends on the smart retail business.

On the one hand, the company's smart retail business has encountered a decline due to the influence of the major environment; on the other hand, other business sources are either "not climate", or they are also affected by the general environment. The value -added service revenue was small and unstable, so Youbao encountered a situation where both revenue and profits were not well performed.

The model is doubtful, the competition intensifies

For the future, one thing that has to be paid to attention is that the development model that Youbao has taken a more focused on the development of a partner in order to cope with the poor environment can help the company get rid of difficulties and usher in better performance?

In recent years, due to the severe market and capital pressure, Youbao has also adjusted its own business model. It has changed from direct business -based to a development model that is mainly partners.

The change of this model is also logical. By using the help of cooperation to join, Youbao can maximize the use of external funds and resources to grow together with partners.

For Youbao, the so -called direct -operated model refers to the company's own selection of automatic selling airports and fully bear cost and income. The partner model refers to the partners to help the partners help find points, and the partner shall bear the cost of operating costs, and then the partner can be divided from a certain percentage from the sales revenue of the automatic vending machine. Of course, the actual operation of the point is still unified by Youbao.

The partner model helped Youbao to achieve rapid expansion, and it also rebuilt Youbao's revenue system from the inside out.

From 2020 to 2021, Youbao achieved a result of increasing from more than 80,000 points to more than 100,000 points through the partner model. At the same time, the company's income from the partner model has also increased to more than half. The income obtained through the partner model has become the company's main source of revenue. But such a model is like a traditional franchise model. It is a "double -edged sword". Considering that Youbao has rely on the partner model, if the partners cannot make money in the future, it will inevitably encounter partnerships. Human ebb. If so, the company's revenue structure will suffer a huge impact, which will undoubtedly bring greater uncertainty to Youbao.

Under uncertainty, Youbao is still encountering a more severe competitive environment.

In recent years, unmanned retail market prospects have been valued by many giants, and a large number of companies have begun to choose to enter this market. SF, Ruixing, Vitality Forest ... Logistics and retail bosses have ended to lay out unmanned retail to seize more consumer channels and service points, which will constitute a huge challenge for Youbao.

As we all know, unmanned retail does not currently have no strong technical barriers, and for Youbao, its low investment at the R & D level is not enough to ensure that it has a strong technical barriers in the field of unmanned retail. All signs show that even if Youbao can successfully land on Hong Kong stocks this time, it will not be too good in the future.

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