Has the logic of praise changed?

China's Internet has developed for more than 20 years, from opening up to closure, and then reopening. This is the general trend that can not help. With the interoperability of the platform in traffic, the commercial order will inevitably usher in reshaping.

During the recent 618 period, some users found that advertisements in the WeChat circle of friends can already directly evoke Taobao Taobao, which is close to the complete transaction process to the greatest extent. Obviously, as the two poles of the Chinese Internet, Alibaba and Tencent are removing the long -lasting wall.

This matter was greatly rendered by the media, which means a little bit of stones -the ripples stimulated by interconnection are enough to become a shocking waves that make other players dump on the field.

It is often regarded as the e -commerce SaaS of "Wall Disassembling and Air Stocks". During the 618, it was announced that it had fully opened up the Little Red Book Platform. After accessing the Xiaohongshu applet, the merchant could realize the closed loop of transactions in Xiaohongshu. But the latter did not cause any big waves.

It should be added that at this stage, the e -commerce SaaS platform collectively enters the winter. Taking the "WeChat Ecological First Stock" as an example, not only was exposed to layoffs, but the total market value evaporated over tens of billions of Hong Kong dollars within one year.

With a glimpse, the performance of praise is also the basic status of the entire industry. On this node, although there is a horseman, as the most special track in the domestic SaaS field, it may be better to discuss the sinking logic of praise.

Talk about the story of interconnection and private domain

The interconnection that has been mentioned many times is it good or empty for e -commerce SaaS companies? From the perspective of stock price performance, it is undoubted:

On July 14 last year, according to foreign media reports, Alibaba and Tencent are considering gradually opening up the ecosystem. That night, the micro -League Group continued to fall, and now fell more than 5%, a new low since May; China ’s stock price hit a 60 -day low in the next day, a decrease of 3.01%.

Earlier on November 22, 2013, Taobao blocked visiting from WeChat, but merchants can build their own traffic positions on the WeChat platform through e -commerce SaaS tools.

To a certain extent, the business model of Micro League and Zhan is based on Ali and Tencent's shielding. Assuming that Taobao and WeChat traffic is opened, some merchants may choose to abandon their own small programs or public account shops. This is indeed a big sky.

But from a bigger level, interconnection should be a favorable factor. It is necessary to mention the Amazon Empire's armed rebels, the e -commerce SaaS enterprise Shopify.

The basis of Shopify is that there are no blocking each other between major traffic platforms in the United States, and independent merchants have the possibility of existence. They do not have to rely on a single platform to obtain traffic from multi -traffic channels to meet the needs of brand exposure.

Under the interconnection of the domestic platform, this condition is justified, that is, the opening of WeChat and Taobao's traffic. Although the flow of traffic is easy, it will not bring more private region traffic to the e -commerce platform, and help some of the people expand new increases new increases. Measure the market.

Of course, traffic interoperability is the foundation. Here we need to consider the core capabilities of e -commerce SaaS, that is, the trend of private domain traffic operation.

At this stage, Internet dividends are fading, and traffic growth has slowed, which has become a consensus. On the other hand, the customer acquisition cost of brands in public domain is increasing.

Taking the centralized e -commerce platform of traditional channels as an example, according to the increasing cost of the centralized e -commerce platform, the increasing public domain traffic is increasing, and the economic burden on the transferred to merchants is increasing. For the brand, it means that it is quite meaningful to buy public domain traffic.

In addition, in the private region environment, merchants can achieve refined operations and more brand stickiness in user pools. Considering many factors, private domain operations are necessary to seize the brand.

Based on this logic, interconnection is good, and the private domain story is easy to tell, so why do you like this?

The most critical factor is traffic. In layman's terms, the core of the SaaS service provider is to serve and bind brands to help the brand's connection with consumers cross -platform and cross -departments, and the core is the introduction of traffic.

The tool is always a tool. If the flow is lacking, the merchant will not choose. The typical is WeChat here. Since its birthday, it has been the main battlefield of merchants to operate private domain flow, and it is also the place where the praise is the place of Longxing.

However, when WeChat showed a little interest in controlling the "closed loop of e -commerce transactions" — it was announced on July 14, 2020 that it was officially launched on WeChat small store capabilities and opened the application channel for internal testing. After the WeChat store was launched, Youzan's stock price fell 7.53%, and Weimeng's stock price fell 12.76%.

In contrast, because foreign social media platforms are weak in controlling "closed loop of e -commerce transactions", Shopify can establish partnerships with Facebook and Google at the same time. In addition to being able to connect with social platforms, they can also achieve it with Amazon and other e -commerce platforms to achieve Docking.

The mainstream domestic traffic platforms, such as Douyin and Kuaishou, are constantly strengthening the "closed loop of e -commerce transactions". According to this, it is based on this. After we can see that after the decoupling, in 2021, Youzan's GMV from Kuaishou channels accounted for 13%, which was as high as 40%before.

In this time, I have cooperated with Xiaohongshu. The essence is still looking for a traffic platform that lives, but Xiaohongshu may not be the next fast hand.

Youzan, the path of the micro -alliance is divided into wild

In the era of black swans flying around, everyone hoped to find the ultimate weapon to fight uncertainty. But unfortunately, universal keys do not exist, and only whether enterprises can rely on whether their genes are tolerated. "A company's genes have been determined as early as its first 18 months. After that, the company could not have any major changes. If DNA is right, it is a piece of gold; if it is not, then it will basically finish it." Michael Moritz, chairman of Sequoia Capital, said.

The genes of the domestic e -commerce SaaS platform have certain externalities. At that time, the wealth -making operations in the foreign SaaS model inspired the latecomers. In the domestic Internet entrepreneurial circle, which is famous for "Copy to China", countless "China Edition XXX" was born. Essence

Take the Micro -League and Youzan as an example, initially benchmark Salesforce and Shopify.

"For a long time, the vision of Micro -League is to become China's largest enterprise -level service provider and the Chinese version of Salesforce." This sentence comes from the internal email sent by the CEO of Micro -League Sun in 2017 to the company.

"Youzan is deeply benchmarking the world's largest trading SaaS product SHOPIFY, which will exceed the product technology, GMV, and income more than Shopify." In 2018, Zan CEO Bai Ya revealed in an internal email.

Due to the different examples and vision, this also caused the two paths to be wild in actual operations.

Look at the micro -alliance first, and in 2020, the three core strategies of "great customerization, internationalization and ecology" are customized. The more typical is a great customerization strategy, which looks like Salesforce.

According to the Enterprise -level customer (annualized income> 1 million US dollars) revenue disclosed by Salesforce at the 2020 fiscal year, the contribution of this part of the customer's revenue continued to increase, accounting for 58%in fiscal 2016, and the proportion of fiscal 2020 will reach near 70%.

It can be seen that although Salesforce has a good performance in KA+SMB, it mainly relies on large customers to maintain income growth and ensure that customer loss rates have declined year by year.

In addition, in the development process of Salesforce, in order to cope with the newly admitted SaaS developer, the platform has been upgraded from SaaS to PaaS, and the Micro -League also launch the Micro -League Cloud PaaS platform to accelerate the "platformization" process.

Here we mainly focus on the benefits of great customerization. First, ARPU is promoted. The financial report shows that the micro -League subscription solution customer ARPU is 11,553 yuan, an increase of 58%year -on -year; the second is to reduce the loss rate. In the 2021 of the Micro -League, the customer loss rate was 23.3%(26.1%in 20 years).

The two brings a higher return on investment (LTV/CAC) for a while. After the ARPU and renewal rate of large and medium -sized customers, the LTV/CAC ratio is obtained. Times, and the income of large customers is also higher.

As for Zhan, you can first see that the business (payment business and SaaS business) is more similar to Shopify. In addition, the main customer group is SMEs.

However, the two also have different places. Shopify adopts the "low subscription fee+value -added income" model. The core income is value -added services, accounting for nearly 70%of the total revenue; The source is still the subscription fee for SaaS products, with a total revenue of over 60%.

This causes the idea of ​​Shopify when facing the loss rate of small and medium -sized enterprises to allow retaining customers to generate more income, that is, continuously introduce various merchants value -added services to increase the value of single customers. And the praise response means a bit weak.

Snowball user Liu Zhifei believes that SHOPIFY is a "water -raising fish" type from the two charging modes, and it is praise belonging to the "kill chicken and egg" type.

It takes a long time to operate DTC and private domain. High subscription fee is like a threshold, which not only blocks small and micro -merchant households, but also inhibit the merchants who have already entered but GMV. This is why the loss rate of the merchants has endlessly.

Of course, Youzan's choice of such a model may have calculated weighing. However, from the perspective of the result orientation, compared with the benchmark Salesforce Micro -League, in today's unfavorable environment, the Zanzan who has the Shopify gene is more thorough.

E -commerce SaaS Dream

No company's business logic is unchanged, not to mention that after the macro environmental flaws of listed companies, it is impossible for companies to make strategic adjustments.

On March 29th, China Zan released the 2021 performance report. The CEO Bai Ya also released internal emails at the same time, revealing that the next business strategy is based on the two cores of "doing large -scale use value" and "deep cultivation of vertical industry".

The so -called "large -scale use value" refers to social e -commerce, which is dominated by Zanwei Mall. This is a mature profit business. Essence

Earlier in May 2021, Youzan upgraded the brand name of the retail business to "Youzan New Retail" and used the new retail business as the second growth curve.

The logic behind it is simple. In layman's terms, the transaction cannot be separated from two basic elements. One is the platform for supporting the transaction, and the other is to allow customers to patronize the traffic of the store. Whether it is Shopify or praise, and micro -alliance, they can provide the former -platforms that support transactions. When these so -called traffic platforms on the line built self -built e -commerce closed -loop, merchants were wrapped in, and they were affected by praise, but there were still businesses that were not wrapped and had digital transformation, such as new retail.

From the results, the financial report shows that in 2021, the Subscribe solution reached RMB 974 million, and the GMV was RMB 98.3 billion, a year -on -year decrease of 5.2%. Among them, the GMV of the store SaaS was 27.7 billion yuan, accounting for 28%.

The store SaaS products are mainly due to the effort to offline merchants. With the gradual promotion of Youzan New Retail, the store SaaS may become an important driver for the Subscription Subscribe business.

In addition, according to the company's annual performance announcement, the KA sales team was established in 2021 to provide merchants with new retail solutions, which also shows that there is a big intention.

As follows, the financial report shows that the Micro -League's smart retail revenue achieved 426 million yuan in 2021, accounting for 35.86%of the subscription solution revenue; the number of merchants reached 6126 (YOY+66.38%), and the smart retail ARPU was 70,000 yuan (YOY+76.58%).

In addition, the recent micro -alliance and China Chain Operation Association (CCFA) released the "2022 Retail Chain Brand Digital Operation Research Research and Strategy Report", which is very obvious.

However, in the digitalization of retail, Youzan and Micro -League may not be able to stand for a long time. The two also need to face the existing players on the field -June 28, Tencent Smart Retail officially released a new one -phase Thousands of Domain plans, which will be. More platform capabilities are open to service partners, this is just one of the big factories.

Here, analyze the e -commerce SaaS also needs to jump out of the enterprise itself. Coincidentally, on the one hand, Zanzan's Shopify has encountered a 7 -month decline of 80%, the latest market value is only $ 44.869 billion, and the stock price almost completely fell back to the epidemic.

The micro -League's target Salesforce, before November 2021, the stock price went to the historical highest point of $ 310, with a market value of $ 308.8 billion. As of July 8, Salesforce's stock price was $ 175.50, with a market value of only $ 1746.23, shrinking nearly 40%.

It can be seen that regardless of overseas or domestic, the market value of the SaaS sector is continuously shocking and falling. According to "2022 Saas Crash" published by Meritech:

As of May 13, 2022, the 25 SaaS companies with the fastest annual revenue in the past 12 months of US stocks. The company's stock price has declined from the highest point to now, up to 82%, with an average of 67%.

Earlier, the market value of SaaS listed companies rose sharply during the epidemic, reaching its peak at the end of 2021. As of now, the past six months have become the largest market value loss in SaaS. Obviously, the entire track is in the downward cycle.

Under the environment, the stock price of the e -commerce SaaS company's stock price is like a "yellow beam dream". When the tide retreats, the only thing that can do now may be dormant.

@创

Author 丨 Camphor Rice Editor 丨 Yi Page

Reference materials:

Yibang Power "It's Tong!" Tmall breaks into WeChat circle of friends "

Liu Zhifei "Compared with Shopify, where is the worse? "

Li Muhua's "Shopify and Chinese E -commerce SaaS Same and Different"

The most words "Fortalk under the giant"

Xingchen Technology Essay "About 9 Basic Facts of Salesforce"

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