New games are launched, tens of thousands of games rush into the VR header

On the third day between OQ2 and PN3, Jason decisively chose OQ2.

Although this decision is enough to make an ordinary college student eat a month of instant noodles, as a game "severe patient", it is difficult for Jason to give up the best OQ2 that he thinks he is currently in terms of content resources and various parameter advantages.

However, it was found that the space of QUEST2 was not friendly to myopia, even if you tried all kinds of posture = trouble.

More importantly, just in activating this step, Jason took a day, from the network to the developer mode, either the installation of Oculus assistant was unsuccessful, or the FB account was blocked, and each step was a pit.

After finally activating, Jason found that his own game comes with OQ2 did not catch a cold.

So choose the streaming PCSteam, the monster hunter world, the dark soul 3, and Dota2, including the entire assassin's creed series are Jason's heart -minded games, in addition to ALYX.

However, for Jason, the disadvantage of OQ2 still exists, that is, the glare of the early stage of the wearing is still too serious. On the other hand, the visual angle is not enough, resulting in the feeling of immersion.

In fact, if the above problems are placed in the entire VR field, you will find that these are actually only the tip of the iceberg in VR products.

On the other hand, Chinese VR -related companies have grown rapidly in recent years.

Tianyancha showed that in 2019, the number of VR companies in my country exceeded 3,000, and 3,400 newly added in 2020. By 2021, the registration volume of VR -related companies has increased to more than 4,800, a year -on -year increase of 52%.

Everyone sees the potential of VR.

Source: Tianyancha

This is not the first time that VR has been sought after by the market.

The first two times in the 1990s and 2016, in the two VR booms, the sales volume of VR equipment and the market favor of the market were more lively than now.

However, the tide and tide, throw away the fashionable concepts of the Yuan universe, the next generation of the Internet, and web3.0, how did the current VR technology develop, has it reached a turning point from quantitative to qualitative?

1. VR's carnival is just looking at flowers in the fog

Six years have passed since the second wave of 2016, Sony, HTC, and Oculus, which launched the first generation to the Volkswagen consumer market.

(2016, HTC Vive)

Today, with the improvement of the VR industry industry chain, VR hardware shipments have exceeded 10 million inflection points.

According to IDC data, the global VR shipments in 2021 were 11 million units, and an important inflection point of the industry with annual shipments of 10 million units; it is expected that the global VR header display in 2022 is expected to reach 20 million units, an increase of 81.8% year -on -year, a year -on -year increase of 81.8% And by 2025, the VR header showing the number of output can reach 110 million units.

What's more noteworthy is that VR hardware not only increased its shipments, but even VR content extended to the field of film.

For example, the PICO's "3D blockbuster re -combustion plan", the copyright resources launched on the platform include Marvel series, Transformers, silver -wing killers, and ice and snow.

From the perspective of the time dimension, there is no hardware, and the logic of the entire human -machine interaction does not exist. If the Internet era is a computer, the mobile Internet era is a smartphone, then the third era is VR and AR devices.

The current development of VR devices seems to have a entrance to all virtual scenes.

So, how much is the imagination of VR hardware?

Take VR movies, and VR devices have surpassed the concepts of 3D and 4D movies. Without the limitations of time and space, countless science fiction scenes and content can be created. This is undoubtedly a great imagination for VR movies.

In terms of hardware resolution, the current screens of mainstream VR glasses are 4K. In the case of good rendering, it is very sufficient. Even when watching the video, I almost do not pay attention to pixel particles. It can be said that on this basis, the requirements for playing video have also reached 4K resolution.

However, VR technology is also facing technical tests.

According to the CICC Research Report, the value of the technology of near -eye display is considerable, and it is the key area of ​​science and technology giants.

Because near -eye display technology plays a decisive role in the product performance of VR/AR hardware and user experience, optics and display are the core components of VR/AR, and the value accounts for relatively high value.

According to data from the Ling Ding Research Institute, VR headset equipment optical+screen part of the value accounts for about 40%.

To this end, the content involved in the following is mainly to display technology and VR headset equipment optics.

In fact, VR hardware is a relatively general statement. The current products have VR all -in -one, VR header, VR mobile phone box.

The VR all -in -one machine refers to the device integrates the display device and processing equipment, which can be used independently; VR headset means that VR glasses are just a display, and the processor needs to be connected. VR mobile phone box is a glasses used to put the mobile phone in the VR box Essence

However, for intelligent hardware manufacturers, whether it is VR wearable device or other categories, the development route is basically: hardware+content ecology. While improving the quality of the hardware, it uses high -quality content to attract users. The closed loop continues to expand the market. However, these are only "imagined" for the VR field. The current hardware technology is far from 100%immersion.

From the perspective of display technology, in order to create a strong virtual world, the main parameters of the showing part of the effects of the experience include PPD, FOV, and Lantency.

PPD (Pixel Per Degree) is a pixel density that determines the clearness of the display.

Because PPD is affected by FOV (perspective angle), the PPD = G0 recognized by the industry is used as a standard Huai, and 100 ° FOV (VR head shows the feeling of immersion from ~ 800fov, and increases as the angle increases). It needs to be achieved. Single -eye 6K, currently only PIMAX's waiting header to be released claims to have achieved this value.

And more aspects involved in delay, including tracking, transmission, simulation, rendering, screen display, etc., will affect the size of the extension.

The most common, such as screen display, if VR hardware fails to reach the standard VR frame rate (90Hz, interactive game is 120Hz), once the head moves too fast, it will easily increase the sense of delay, which will cause some users to have discomfort.

If the market is considered in the market, compared with the lifelike immersion of 1800Hz, then the highest HMD (near -eye display) at the moment, only 120Hz PN3 (Pico NEO 3) and OQ2 (OCULUS Quest 2 2

To.

Although PN3 and OQ2 are completely sufficient for the current frequency of VR in the market, there is still a clear distance from the real "falseness".

However, the improvement rate and high resolution are not unspeakable. At present, almost all VR hardware uses the display scheme is FAST-LCD. It is undeniable that LCD is more delicate in display and has a stable life. It still depends on the LED (Micro-OLED/Micro-LED) solution.

At present, the LED display solution is also the direction of the development of VR manufacturers.

On May 10th, the International Display Week, BOE (BOE) released a number of global first technology products: ADS Pro, F-OLED, α-MLED technology brands, as well as the three major new new new technical products of the Yuan universe, naked eye 3D, and smart cockpit One -generation cutting -edge application, strong return to SID offline exhibition.

Putting the perspective in the domestic VR market, in the LED solution, domestic companies do start to develop LED modules.

For example, the AR startup Kure Technology announced in June 14 to join TSMC; on June 13, Guoxing Optoelectronics added the concept of "Micro LED"; on June 13, Rongli Technology MINILED VR products have been delivered to Finland and North American companies; June 16th; June 16 On the day, Apple partners created ultra -high resolution Micro OLED FMM to study the production line ...

In fact, MINILED is more like an LCD that has been greatly improved in terms of color, and Mirco OLED has a very high pixel density

(2560x2560), unlike miniled, although Mirco OLED has the color of OLED, because the pixel density is extremely high, it is difficult to grow. Even if it is bigger, the cost will increase.

From this point of view, the application of LED seems to be a very good display solution, provided that if C -end consumption is not considered.

However, the reality is just the opposite. At this stage, Micro LED's good product rate is too low, and even if it can achieve mass production, Micro LED still does not have the conditions to enter the C -end market in the face of cost high.

From another perspective, even if VR manufacturers pile up the stack of 100%immersion at the technical level, the portable exploration on VR hardware is not so fast, not to mention that the current immersion is far from 100%. Essence

But this does not seem to hinder the manufacturer that has developed OLED/LED modules to attack portable VR hardware (to be precisely eye mask VR).

Two VR hardware short -term outbreak still needs to be seen

On June 22, Guo Mingzhang, known as the "strongest apple analyst on the surface", lowered the prediction of Meta VR shipments, which quickly caused the market's emotional changes.

On the same day, Goer's stock declined, and Lixun Precision also fell more than 5%, Lan Si Technology, Chuanyin Holdings, Pengding Holdings, etc. also fell.

Financially, the market share of META's VR devices is unpredictable. According to the research institution Counterpoint Research, by the end of 2021, the cumulative shipments of Meta Quest2 exceeded 10 million units, and the cumulative shipment was 1.5 times that of the second largest competitor Sony PSVR.

Meta has been in exchange for the leading market share, and it has become a "leader" in the field of VR equipment.

The market share is far ahead, but the research report of the server industry of the securities firm believes that although META has maintained capital expenditure forecasts, the investment in AI infrastructure has begun to turn conservative. Meta reduces VR hardware investment and is helpful for domestic brands to sell overseas. China's head wearing VR hardware, content/service market is ushered in a rapid growth period.

According to the statistics of Soochow Securities, many A -share listed companies have participated in the chip, optics, display, complete assembly and other components of VR equipment.

Goer has become the core business of the two major producers of VR hardware Sony PSVR and Oculus since 2016. In the same year, VR/AR mid -to -high -end product shipments accounted for more than 70%of the world's.

From 2018 to 2021, the operating income contributed by Goor's intelligent hardware products also increased rapidly, about 6.6 billion yuan, 8.5 billion yuan, 17.7 billion yuan, and 32.8 billion yuan, respectively.

But VR hardware is still obvious.

First, the two dilemma of portable and visual effects.

Portable is enough and light enough, but as far as the current FOV technology is concerned, the long view angle of FOV is built on the length of the VR body. The VR body is naturally difficult to grow in this situation.

When reading the content on the screen, the visual coverage of both eyes is about 120 °, but it is only valid for the eyes of fixed positions. From the perspective of real scenes, not only human eyes often sweep a lot of things in a short time, including many scenes, it can be said that the vision that people perceive is actually far more than 120 °.

From the concept and nature of VR, the size of FOV has practical requirements.

According to official data, the FOV of VR products on the market is on average at 100 °, of which Samsung OdysSry, HTC VIVE

FOVs such as PRO, Pico NEO, Quest and other products are 110 °, 110 °, 101 °, and 100 °, respectively.

Obviously, these values ​​are generally smaller than the limits reached from the eyes of people, so it is difficult to perceive the surrounding things in the VR scene.

On the other hand, short -focus VR needs to consider myopia users.

According to the White Paper, the number of myopia patients in my country has exceeded 600 million. From the perspective of age and career distribution, the 20-year-old "student party" accounts for the highest proportion, over 40 %.

This means that myopia crowd is a group that must be considered by the development of short focus VR.

Although the current short-focus VR generally comes with myopia, such as Arpara is adjustable-100 to 500 degrees. However, only myopia is adjusted for the time being. Due to the different astigmatism of each person, there is currently no astigmatism regulatory function.

In addition, in addition to display technology, optical design is also one of the bottlenecks of VR explosive expansion.

It is difficult to see the eyes of the objects within 7cm of our own. The normal VR head is between 3cm ~ 7cm from the eye, which involves the lens technology of VR headset.

The first use of the VR headset on the market is a single lens, which changes the form of light into the light through a single lens, and then the incident light passes through the crystal of the human eye, and then changes the disclosure of the object within 7cm from the human eye.

However, whether it is a single lens in the past or Fresnel lens, the VR market has no way to choose the lens.

The use of less lenses with less threads helps the beam concentration and increase the contrast, but the clarity of the image will be damaged. Although the multi -threaded lens, although you can see a clearer image, the light cannot be focused on a little bit, and the curvature is always incorrect.

It can be said that Oculus and HTC, and even other VR manufacturers want to make the lightest and smallest headsets, these are issues that need to be faced.

Third, VR content is the core element?

The development of the VR ecology is what is really doing in the market. The highest discussion is VR content, because there is no wonderful VR content so far it is an important factor that hinders VR's hardware sales.

According to the information on the market, domestic PICO and Adventure 3 are new products released in 2021. Basically, these two companies will not have new VR devices in the past one or two years. The company's main work in the past two years.

Take the development of ecology as an example: basically the introduction of overseas high -quality content.

There are basically no developers in China. In the next two years, domestic VR changes take PICO as an example. The biggest change should be that the ecology will improve more significantly, further shortening the ecological distance with Quest 2.

However, it is worth noting that on January 10, Tencent plans to acquire Black Shark Technology of the game mobile phone company. After the acquisition, the Black Shark will be incorporated into PCG (platform and content business group) and turn the key business to VR equipment as a whole.

It is true that if Tencent wants to continue to rely on software to stand in the Yuan universe, it is not realistic, so for Tencent's operation, the market agrees that Tencent is "chose to join".

From this perspective, large factories continue to pour into the VR field. Can VR content support the needs of VR hardware?

Take the game field, the highest voice must be ALYX and Steam.

In March 2020, V agency released a high-quality 3A VR game "Half-Life: ALYX". The game has achieved high evaluation in major media with its fine picture and a real interactive experience. The iconic masterpiece of VR heavy game. In addition, the product subverts the inherent form of VR games and promotes game innovation and quality improvement.

According to STEAM data, in games with more than 100 comments in VR -related games, the newly released VR game in 2021 reached 95%, while the 2016 praise rate was only 80%. Benefiting from the rapid improvement of content and quality, the realization of game monetization capacity is increased, and the income of application developers has continued to increase.

However, according to Qingshang.com, as of April 2022, Steam VR content was the largest, with a total of 6,464 games and applications. During the same period, the number of contents of Oculus, Sidequest, and APP LAB were 1,738, 3,052, and 1,074, respectively. In addition, the Steam platform continues to attract user traffic through high -quality VR content.

If the VR header is updated, the current VR game on the market is enough to support the current VR hardware.

However, for manufacturers, users' health determines the life and death of the product. If the user does not have enough good product quality to support the quality of the product after purchasing the hardware, the user will also lose.

The market has a point of view that the current VR headset consumer market has not really opened, and various types of manufacturers urgently need to form a stable profit model under their own characteristics under the new air outlet. The new round of competition has begun. Manufacturers need to focus on content ecological construction. Improving consumers' willingness to buy and continue to consume in the application store after purchasing.

However, this is a statement based on the perspective of the manufacturer, and it is not completely right. Because if you stand on the user side, the hardware quality and VR content should be a complementary strong coupling existence.

Furthermore, looking back at major industries, few companies can make profit in the early stage of development, as well as VR tracks.

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