Is the asteroid hit the earth, is it worrying about it?The answer is wonderful

No, may not be for yourself

Illustration: Dart spacecraft is close to the art map of the twin large star system. (Source: NASA)

NASA is testing a new technology, which will be used when there is asteroid threatening to the earth. But how high is the risk of this kind of space rock? This is not worth panic.

The newly launched Double Star Direct Test (DART) aims to test whether the asteroid can be impacted by a spacecraft in advance, so as to change its movement trajectory and avoid collision with the earth. The target of the test is Dimorphos, which is a satellite called Didymos. According to research testers, no matter what the NASA's detector does, these two small stars cannot hit the area.

Therefore, the twins and the twin stars will not threaten the earth, but do people need to worry about threats like the asteroid hitting the earth? The answer is, "This is complicated."

Fortunately, according to the NASA, a relatively large rock that is equivalent to the size of the American football field will cause serious local damage when hitting the earth. Such things will not occur once in 2000.

Illustration: The art map of the twin stars and the twin stars. The larger one in the picture is the twin star, and the smaller satellite twin star on the right. (Source: NASA)

Small object, large number

First of all, this question is not whether there will be small asteroids hit the earth. In the history of our planet, it has not only happened, but also often occurs.

"Small rocks have been hitting the earth." According to the NASA, an average of once a year, the size of a car size will hit the earth's atmosphere, but this size of heaven will burn in the atmosphere and explode before hitting the ground. Essence

Few people noticed the above situation that in addition to those who think this wonder is cool -it also has a name, "Meteor". In the dark and clear night sky, people can watch these meteors. The meteor is generated by the meteor body, and the meteor body is actually a boring asteroid fragment. Most of the meteor bodies are only a few inches or a few millimeters.

A larger object can fall to the surface of the earth and become a "meteorite". In human history, only one person was directly attacked by the heavenly meteorite -a man named "Ann Hodges", who was hit by a 9 -pound meteorite in 1954 and gave her her. Causes bruises, but there is no danger of life.

In a few cases, when the meteor body is large enough, it can penetrate into the earth's atmosphere and explode, which is called a fire star; in a few cases, the fire meteor will land enough to get close to the surface of the earth, so that people can hear the sound of explosion on the ground on the ground. Essence Some explosions even destroy local buildings like bombs, such as accidents that occurred in the town of Yalibosk, Russia in 2013.

Generally speaking, there are more small objects running around the sun than big planets -objects of the size of millions of gravels will only have an object weighing 2 pounds (1 kg). Generally speaking, the substances per 2000 pounds (1000 kg) include 10 trillion tiny meteors.

Illustration: The Yingxian Meteor Shower shot by Duolun, Inner Mongolia. (Source: Getty Images)

Small probability, big hidden danger

Scientists have adopted a series of means to understand the risk of small asteroid hitting the earth.

Refer to large similar events in recent years. In 1908, a large asteroid or comet exploded over Siberia and flattened about 7,750 square miles of forests. This explosion was the famous Tonggus incident; about 100 years later, another notable impact occurred in Cheliaya Yaya Over Binsk, the housing near its trajectory was damaged, and the range of influence could reach up to 55 miles (88 kilometers). This explosion caused about 1,200 people to be injured, most of which were caused by the impact waves of the window.

These two incidents have been separated for about a century. Although the number is small, it provides a reference for the frequency of scientists to study this type of impact.

Clark Chapman of the Southwest Research Institute collected data and compared the risk ratio of Americans's death in various reasons. If a little asteroid that is slightly smaller than the Chikkurup meteorite that ended dinosaur rule 66 million years ago, the possibility of dying from a global impact is about 1/75,000; and a regional impact that does not affect the global impact that does not affect the global impact The probability is smaller, about 1/600000.

These probability is very low, but it is still higher than the first prize of buying lottery tickets.

However, the possibility of being killed in the asteroid hitting the earth should not make people sleep all night. According to Chapman's statistical results, the mortality rate of ordinary Americans in the aircraft crashed is 1/2000, and the probability of death in tornado is 1/60,000. Compared with the asteroids died, any of the above two destinies are killed. It is more likely to be the cause of death.

Illustration: The artistic diagram of the asteroid hit the earth. (Source: NASA/DON DAVIS)

When considering COVID-19, according to data from the Center for Disease Control and Prevention, about 770,000 Americans died of COVID-19 since the virus epidemic. The American population is about 329 million people, so in the past two years, about one of the virus every 427 people died of the virus. Obviously, COVID-19 will kill you much more likely to kill you than small asteroids.

Another way to evaluate risks is to refer to how insurance companies provide guarantee for such rare but catastrophic events, such as hurricanes, earthquakes and floods. According to the Institute of Insurance Information, the insurance of the insurer covers quite extensive disaster prevention, including the asteroid impact; at the same time, the association lists a form that counts the content of insurance that insurance is usually covered and unattended. The asteroid impact is classified as a "falling object", but it is unclear whether it can be calculated directly. (Generally speaking, it can be determined like this, but if the asteroid affects the ground at a certain distance, there will be some controversy)

Insurance companies even calculated the odds based on their risk tolerance. For insurance companies, this mathematical model is feasible. Although the asteroid hitting the earth may cause huge economic losses, because the probability of severe impact is very low, this risk is also very low.

Illustration: After the asteroid hit the earth 66 million years ago, a small bully dragon trembled in the cold wind. This small asteroid led to enter the atmosphere of sulfur gas, causing a sudden drop in global temperature. (Source: James Mckay; Creative Commons)

In the final analysis, compared with other possible risks, you don't have to worry too much about the problem of the asteroid hitting the earth. This is a problem that humans will face for a long time.

By: jesse emspak

Fy: Aphelion

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