New energy vehicles explosion, everyone is making money, only it is

China's new energy vehicle industry rushed all the way. The car company has made a high progress, the business of the lithium power plant is booming, and the charging pile manufacturer jokes. Only the third -party operator of the charging pile is crying.

Wen | Sun Pengfei, Xue Lu Hao

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Total text: 4920 words

Estimated reading time: 7 minutes

Ten years ago, I wanted to take a electric taxi in Hangzhou, which was comparable to the fresh graduate to find a job -I refused again.

At that time, the electric taxis in Guangzhou and Hangzhou tried the power replacement and charging mode to make up the energy. Taxi drivers are in a hurry to find power stations every 70-80 kilometers.

This is the embarrassing side of China's new energy vehicle development. The root of embarrassment is a philosophical speculation -first with chickens or eggs.

The battery supplement is an egg. If there is no replenishment infrastructure coverage, the electricity cannot be charged. 60%of the owners will get stuck in the "whether to buy an electric car".

New energy vehicles are chickens. New energy vehicles are sold well, and new waves of infrastructure can be built

There are two ways to make up lithium batteries -replacement and charging.

Power replacement is equivalent to a new energy vehicle directly replaced with a battery full of electricity;

Charging requires drivers to stand by the charging pile and wait for the power to rise.

Picture source: pixabay

In the early days of charging and replenishment of new energy vehicles, public piles played the role of gas stations and became a necessary infrastructure for electric vehicles.

Today, we will focus on the charging pile industry -charging pile operator.

In the charging pile industry chain, the upstream is a manufacturer, and the downstream is an application car company, but the identity of the midstream operators is the most embarrassing -that is, it is difficult to make the technology to realize it, and it is more difficult to bind it with the C -side customers to form an ecology.

They enter the 100 billion market, and they depend on "smashing money".

Today, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China for 7 consecutive years are the world's number one consecutive years. Today, new energy vehicles are rising, and the manufacturers of piles on the upstream are laughed, and car companies promoted by piles in the lower reaches are also happy. Only charging pile operators are frowning. Essence Among them, even third -party operators such as stars charging and special calls have been worrying.

According to the Knowledge of the Cube, the construction of piles is a heavy asset, and the return of this cycle is 4-5 years. At present, 80%of the enterprises cannot be profitable.

Taking the charging pile head operator's special call as an example, the total loss of 560 million yuan in three years (deducting non -net profit) is enough to buy 200,000 national magic cars Wuling Hongguang Mini EV.

Throughout this business business, it is like a toxic bubble sugar -although the benefits are rich for a long time, the investment is heavy and the blood is slow. I was afraid that the money was burned, and only mosquito blood was returned.

Head companies such as special calls and stars charging, although the number of piles is far ahead, the blood recovery cycle is longer. Cube Zhizhi Bureau believes that charging pile operators are likely to be unable to make profits in the next five years.

1. There are many piles, there are more prospects

Operating business in public piles is like playing monsters in the game. At present, three teams participating in the war-

1. Representatives of national team players: National Grid, Petrochemical, PetroChina, Southern Power Grid

The body is huge and the blood volume is thick and heavy, which can be called a "tank".

2. Auto company team player representative: Weilai, Tesla

The construction of a pile of car companies does not care about losses. With the "nanny" of selling cars, the crispy mage can also take off in Wuhu, and can carry it.

3. Delegate players for third -party operators: stars charging, special calls, etc.

Third -party operators take a face -to -face route, vigorously roll out the channels to grab points, and return blood to rely on capital financing. It's like the "assassin" in the game. It has a strong outbreak in a short period of time, but I am afraid that the wind is easy to get cold.

A cold knowledge, the "National Team" national grid is not the highest number of piles. The number was last to the two third -party operators.

As of the end of 2021, only four of the number of piles built by charging pile operation companies in the country — Star charging, special calls, national power grids, and cloud fast charging. The concentration of four industries was 74%.

However, the Cube Zhizhi Bureau believes that the number of pile construction cannot reflect the core competitiveness of the operator. After all, operators have built piles in Budi Rice in order to flush data.

Find a charging pile like a wild survival source: Shandong News Network

After understanding the characteristics of the three major teams of operators, the Cube Knowledge Manufacturing Bureau is not optimistic about the future days of third -party operators. There are three reasons:

1. Horizontal comparison: third -party operators are relatively lack of core competitive advantages

The business of public charging piles is like building a base station. The logic behind it is to burn money first, and then "harvest" a large group of users after the market matures.

Public charging pile operating profit model is single -only rely on charging charges.

From the perspective of investment, the cost of single-gun construction is 100,000 yuan, and this cycle is 4-5 years.

From the perspective of the toll side, the utilization rate of public piles can be profitable by 10%. From the perspective of the current utilization rate, it is difficult to make a profit within 3-5 years.

To let the business model run through, it is only 8 words -open source throbbing and working hard to make money.

National Team: Resource endowment

Player representatives: National Grid, Sinopec, PetroChina, Southern Power Grid

The national power grid is one of the earliest players to build a public charging pile. The advantage is that they can use electricity resources to relative to low cost.

The Petrochemical Department is strong in geographical location. For example, the traffic gold position on the road along the road has been occupied by gas stations. Such an advantage can be reused on a public pile. In 2021, Weilai hugged Sinopec's thighs and built a charging station every two days at the gas station to occupy the core location. The core location is related to the utilization rate of public charging piles -there is a set of data here, taking 50kW fast charging pile as an example. If the service fee of 0.5 yuan remains unchanged, when the utilization rate of charging piles increases from 7%to 12%, single piles are single piles, and single piles are single piles. The total profit will be increased from -00,500 to 09,300.

There are more people who charge, so I do n’t worry about it.

Auto company team: pioneering private pile dividends

Player representative: Public Pile: Weilai, Tesla private pile: BYD, SAIC

Although there is no resource advantage of the national team in the throttling and the return of the car company, the new forces such as Weilai and Tesla are only selling public piles for better selling cars.

Car companies that have formed a user ecology have entered another potential market -private piles.

According to EVCIPA data, in May of this year, the amount of charging piles with the vehicle (private pile) was 2.16 million units, an increase of 118%year -on -year. Private pile construction has been significantly accelerated.

As of July 2021, Chinese private pile operators were mainly occupied by car companies. BYD, BAIC, and SAIC were divided into the top three, accounting for nearly 90 % of the market share.

Picture source: UNSPLASH

Third -party operator: core business complement supporting role

Representative players: stars charging, special calls, etc.

Third -party operators do not have the resource endowment of the national team, nor the ecological advantages of car companies close to C -side users.

The cost of building public piles is high and blood is slow; the C -side private pile business is difficult to squeeze in.

Star charging claims to be a private pile to share business, which is the Uber business of private piles. In this business, the star charging a family is unique, which accounted for 98.13%of the share in July 2021, but it is difficult to maintain competitiveness.

Star charging pile source source: Star official website

Because the core resources of private piles are users and ecology, once car companies enter this field, charging pile operators will face huge challenges.

For example, although Didi challenged the inherent model of taxi travel, when the taxi company jointly made an online taxi platform, Didi had to buy a car to form a car ride -hailing team, becoming another sense of sense, becoming another sense "Taxi" company.

Let's return to the core business of third -party operators -public pile business.

In June last year, Yu Dexiang, chairman of the special parent company, said that "electric vehicle+charging grid" is the best way to achieve carbon neutrality in the transportation field and announced that it will stop building communication charging piles in the community.

Some people in the industry believe that how much such remarks have changed the concept. Because the suspension of communication and charging piles is the consensus of the industry, the main push charging network is not the only way to replace the community exchange charging piles.

"Private piles have to grab the business of public piles. Will the early investment be drifted up shortly after?"

According to data from the China Charging Alliance, as of the first half of this year, a total of 1,316 private piles have been operated.

In March of this year, the Ministry of Housing and Construction publicly solicited opinions on the "Specifications for Housing Projects", of which specifically proposed that residential projects should be equipped with new energy vehicle charging facilities or reserved installation conditions.

In other words, in the future, new energy vehicles supplement energy are likely to be mainly based on family private piles and supplemented by public piles.

2. Encountering rival: The power replacement mode will be divided into big customers

Supplementary energy is a rigid need for new energy vehicles, but public piles are not. If the power replacement mode has developed, the B and C -side users of third -party operators may not be kept.

Come and calculate such a account first:

Charging and replenishing energy, almost 15-30 minutes, slow for 6-8 hours. When there is a scheme in front of 2 minutes, which one do you choose?

If you make a selection of taxi drivers who believe in "time are money", it is difficult for them to resist the faster replenishment method to "change power" -the more than ten minutes of saving can receive short -distance orders.

This is not good news for third -party operators. 80%of China's public pile charging vehicles comes from taxis and online taxis. When the B -end big customers change their hearts, the public piles can only be messy in the cold wind.

The "stars charging" heartbreak is C -end users.

Picture source: Special Coro -Electric Official Website

A clear policy signal was released in April 2020 -new energy passenger cars of more than 300,000 yuan will no longer receive subsidies. However, new energy vehicles adopting the "power exchange" mode are not subject to this rule.

The state uses subsidy policies to guide consumption terminals to stimulate new energy vehicle companies to transfer to the rudder.

More than 300,000 yuan are high -end models, corresponding to high net worth users who pursue a higher sense of technology. This part of the user is willing to pay for driving black technology, and may also be more willing to experience the pleasure of the power replacement mode.

2022 is the first year of the new energy vehicle "power replacement", and the lithium battery Yingde era also announced in January that it would join the power switching battlefield.

In this way, the public pile market accounts for 20%of C -terminal users. It may not only be diverted by private piles, but also hooks the soul by the power replacement mode.

3. Tear the final decent

The complaint of a online car driver reflects some kind of reality that is unwilling to use piles:

"Most of the public charging piles in Shanghai are built in the basement and communities of the mall. The charging cost is not expensive, but it takes an hour to charge for additional expenses.

The national team's piles are dominated by people's livelihood, and the government is willing to invest vigorously. The national power grid chose a fast charging pile cost of about 130,000 yuan, covering the highway and high -speed side. The construction of the car company team pays more attention to the user experience. After all, when the pile is used, the car can be sold. The new forces of the car were holding the thighs of the national team and built a pile in the gas station.

Picture source: pixabay

Third -party operations selected shopping malls, office buildings, communities, etc. But most of them use the less cost and slower charging charging pile -that is, the AC pile that is about to be eliminated by the industry.

The purchasing cost of a 120kW DC single -gun charging pile is usually about 40,000 yuan.

But a 7kW exchange charging pile, the purchase cost is only 500-800 yuan.

There is no location advantage, the superposition of the charging is slow, bringing the user's intuitive experience: the charging is expensive, the cost is high, and there is an additional parking cost.

Here, we try to charge the stars and call the two heads of third -party charging pile companies to squeeze water-

Picture source: China Charging Alliance

According to the data of the China Charging Alliance, there are nearly 190,000 AC piles of Xingxing charging operations, accounting for nearly 70%of the total operating volume. Among the 250,000 charging piles, there are also 100,000 AC electric piles.

Remove these charging piles that may accumulate ash in the future, and the number of charging piles that can quickly bring revenue feedback can be rapidly incorporated and less than 70,000 units.

Today, the utilization rate of public charging piles in China is low-3%-5%. Related data shows that the utilization rate can only be profitable by 10%-15%, and the charging pile enterprise can be profitable.

Abandoned charging pile source: Shandong News Network

However, the natural defects of AC electricity piles are doomed to the fate of these public piles.

If it is said that the profitability of the charging pile enterprise should be waiting at least 3-5 years.

Feedback in performance:

From 2019 to 2021, the revenue of special calls is between 2 billion and 31 billion yuan, and net profit is losing money. In addition to the factors such as government subsidies, the total loses of non -net profit for three consecutive years have been deducted by 560 million.

From the perspective of which perspective, public piles are just mainstream products at the beginning of the outbreak of new energy vehicles, and it is difficult to become the leader of the future energy supplement market. The time ended, the prospects of third -party operators lying in the public pile market were worrying.

So, the charging pile operator should avoid such destiny?

Can their self -rescue methods succeed?

2. Combat and cross, the road of survival is to "dead end"

After analyzing the three major reasons for third -party operators such as stars charging and special calls, the Cube Knowledge Manufacturing Bureau investigated the nearly two years of the operators. However, the path of struggling to survive is likely to be blocked.

The charging pile is a fine work. It needs to be boring to supply power supply, site selection, site maintenance and other factors -decentralized property rights. Each entry can have a place with their own resource endowment, but it is difficult to form a situation of eating.

At present, third -party operators have adopted a "coexistence" method to avoid being eliminated by the market.

Lian Heng: User base determines ecological interests

Number of users at the end of 2021:

Star charging: 5 million app users

Special call: 8 million+new energy users

State Grid: Breaking 200 million registered users

From the perspective of the charging pile operation industry, the number of infrastructure is not the only criterion for core competitiveness. The key force of determining the weight of the discourse in the industry is the user base and the potential interests brought by it.

In 2020, it was led by the National Power Grid, Southern Power Grid, Special Caller, Star Charging, etc., gathered more than 100 operators, and established a "joint technology" company to cover most of the charging pile brands on the market.

Picture source: Lianhang Science and Technology Official Website

The joint technology requires the location information of each charging pile and do the information background. For example, the car owner opened the special call app, and you can still query the charging pile information of the national power grid and star charging -also vote for the power grid.

In the list of shareholders of the joint technology, the State Power Grid holds 49%, the Southern Power Grid is 20%, and the special call and stars are 9%.

Even as a third -party operator on the head, compared with the 200 million daily living users of the State Grid, there are only one million -level users who charge and call users.

Under this logic, third -party charging pile operators can only watch the two major grids take away their interests, only to obtain more powerful electricity ecosystems through "Lian Heng"

This has made the wealthy third -party operator the profit distribution of the profit distribution of the joint venture.

Combined: further from the C -end, or become the background board of the car company

In January of this year, Xiaopeng announced that the super charging station runs through 337 cities across the country. However, few people noticed that the special call behind the scenes of the super charging station was noticed.

In 2019, Xiaopeng and the super charging station of 800kW of Electric Power Construction can be charged within 20 minutes. The first site is located in Qingdao.

Both Xiaopeng and Special Calls are exchanged for customers. The goal is consistent, the cost of building piles on both sides, special calling piles and operating experience, Xiaopeng took out the "200,000 car owners".

Don't underestimate these 200,000 owners. Millions of registered users who call at a special call may not be as good as Xiaopeng users.

These 200,000 people are high -stick users who can really bring performance.

Compared with car companies, stars charging, special calls and other charging pile third -party operators are farther -core users -car companies naturally have brand ecology and closer to users. Picture source: pixabay

For car companies like the ideal type of oil and electricity hybrid models, users' mileage anxiety is lower than that of Weilai and Xiaopeng Pure Electric Model. For example, in the cooperation with third -party operators, the ideal directly requires the latter to cover the charging pile of 288 cities into the ideal charging map.

For example, Apple mobile phone users can choose different brands of charging treasures, and have not seen which charging treasure brand has refused to charge Apple mobile phones.

end

Many people believe that the new energy charging pile market is equivalent to today's gas stations.

According to such logic, after the horse racing, the swarm of charging pile operators will eventually form only 3-4 giants.

The strong capital of the national team can have undergone the cold winter of burning money. On the contrary, it is difficult to form a third -party charging pile operator who has a competitive advantage.

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