Is iPhone14 a sign of Apple's prosperity and decline?Don't face again

Recently, Economist Ren Zeping posted on Weibo, "iPhone 14 may be a sign of the Apple Empire. Since Jobs's death, a company with no innovation and aggressive spirit has begun to eat old books. No wonder you have never bought growth stocks. Buffett, who likes innovation and only likes to monopoly (moat). Now, it's okay, simply launching pseudo -innovation such as "smart island" to fool consumers. It is estimated that the later innovation may be a color mobile phone case. "

He said that at that time, Huawei's high -end flagship mobile phones were rigid and rigid, and the performance was throwing several streets. When the offensive was tide, the United States used hegemonic methods to curb Huawei rise, otherwise Apple would inevitably retreat globally, and did not know that Washington's out -of -hospital interests in Washington did not know the interests of the hospital in Washington. Does the lobby group play a bad role.

Ren Zeping's point of view has caused heated discussions in the industry, and once became a hot topic of Zhihu and Weibo.

The question comes, is iPhone14 really a sign of Apple?

In just 7 to 8 years, Apple has experienced several stock prices plunge and decline

In fact, after Jobs's death, the new Apple product conference under Cook's heads ushered in a group mockery almost every year, and Apple also faced many low tide. In the industry, Apple holds the same innovative and weak script every year. Every year, they are singing the sorrows of the beauty and the end of the hero. Someone always wants to see whether Apple will follow Nokia, and also want to see Apple's crossbow arrows gorgeous under their testimony or decline.

The apple under Cook has encountered many low tide. Jobs died after launching the iPhone4S. The iPhone5 series after Jobs took charge of Apple can be said to be an obvious low tide of Apple.

At that time, in 2011, Samsung launched the first Galaxy Note mobile phone with a 5.3 -inch screen. It opened the trend of a large smartphone screen, and then the Samsung Note2 screen increased to 5.5 inches. By 5.7 inches, business functions have been added, and the market is rapidly popular.

At that time, because of Jobs's insistence on one -handed hand, the phrase "3.5 inches was the golden size of the mobile phone" was almost the motto inside Apple. Cook is still following Jobs' preference for size. At that time, due to the visual experience and touch screen experience brought by the big screen experience of the Samsung smartphone, it won the preference of consumers. The share, the iPhone 5/5S series during this period, the competitiveness began to landslides, and Cook was not optimistic about the industry. Apple was once considered to go downhill.

After the release of the iPhone6 ​​of the big screen, Apple was undoubtedly brought into a new peak period. At that time, the popularity of local tyrant gold was unexpected. To this day, iPhone6 ​​is the best mobile phone sold in the history of smart phones, followed by iPhone13.

With the release of the iPhone6s and innovation, innovation is not as expected, the first decline in shipments in March 2016, the market is concerned that "the iPhone shipments have been topped", resulting in a 6.3%fall of the stock price. After the iPhone7 was released, Apple's market value fell to about $ 550 billion.

Later, on the 10th anniversary of the iPhone in 2017, Apple released the iPhone8 series and iPhoneX, which brought Liu Haiping for the first time. Because Liu Haiping's design encountered a wide range of vomiting, because the mobile phone pushed the price of the iPhone to 10,000 for the first time, the mobile phone was increased to 10,000 to 10,000. At the time, the iPhone X became a hot topic of major content platforms. The articles that sang Apple can be seen everywhere. Later, they were beaten. A number of Android manufacturers imitated Liu Haiping. Financial report of the second quarter.

According to the financial report, Apple's revenue in the first three months of 2018 was US $ 61.1 billion, with a profit of $ 13.8 billion, of which the total revenue increased by 16%in the same period. In these three months of revenue and profits, Apple has achieved the best results in history.

Later, Apple released the iPhoneXS series in the fall of 2018. Due to the failure of product innovation, the iPhoneXS series lacks innovation, the pricing has reached a new high, leading to sales, and the market share has been eaten. The capital market has begun to question Apple's product competitiveness decline.

Around November 20, 2018, compared with the previous peak, it evaporated more than 200 billion US dollars. At that time, its market value hovered around 839.8 billion US dollars.

Later, the sales of the iPhone11 series helped Apple to recover the lost land again. Credit analyst Matthewcabral said that his survey showed that in December 2019, the shipment of iPhone in China increased year -on -year 18.7%, far exceeding the decline of 13.7%of the smartphone market in the area in the same period. This confirms that as long as the iPhone returns to reasonable value, the popularity of its products, brand value and high -end market status are still no one to shake.

In the past few years, due to well -known reasons, Huawei was sanctioned and created favorable conditions for Apple in the high -end market. The two mobile phones released by the iPhone12 and iPhone13 series have followed the strategy of not price increases and harvested the Huawei high -end market. Promoting Apple's market value has reached 300 million points.

Why does Apple sing continuously? Software and hardware ecological capabilities strengthen "Apple's innovation", and Apple's old tune from prosperity to decline every year, instead of being apple itself. On Apple, who made Apple the boss of the smartphone market, the industry boss stood under the spotlight year after year, and gained the most attention and traffic.

However, everyone needs to think about a question. Innovation is to make money. If you do not innovate, you can also make money. Innovation does not seem to be a very urgent thing for Apple.

The reason why lack of innovation can also make money is because in the Android camp, the domestic camp does not have independent control in the bottom link of the chip and operation series. However, Samsung also has a short board, that is, the operating system is missing. It is not a little bit worse than Apple at the software experience level. This is a genetic level, which is difficult to make up for a short time.

Because Apple almost firmly controls the core links of software and hardware, core chips and underlying operating systems, and independent application stores, and stably controls the global mobile phone supply chain system bargaining power, it has almost no shortcomings. Because it is the two things that determine the comprehensive strength of the mobile phone manufacturer because it is a chip and operating system. In the past, both Huawei had both, but now, Huawei, sanctioned, hurts the problem due to chip manufacturing problems.

Therefore, the fact that the naked eye is visible to the naked eye is that at the core competitiveness level, Apple is invincible, and the external market competitors and environment are lacking and lacking. According to the trend, Apple's position will sit more and more stable. In the two years, Apple is still squeezing toothpaste, saying that Apple's innovation is still weak, but it is said that Apple has changed from prosperity to decline, and there are less landslides, because the fact that the naked eye is visible to the naked eye is that even if Apple no longer innovates innovation, Apple has no competitors. Apple is rotten, but it is still invincible. This is a cruel but had to recognize it.

Due to the control of the upper reaches of the system level and hardware supply chain, it is difficult for other manufacturers to control the high software and hardware of other manufacturers than Apple. Apple's weak innovation is subject to the development of industry technology. If Apple is unable to break through, it is more difficult for other manufacturers to innovate. This is why Apple's innovation is weak, but other manufacturers have no more prominent performance.

Today, Apple you are looking forward to Apple's big innovation to subvert its own business model, and with the original people expect Nokia to make destructive innovations, go forward -looking and develop smartphones to reduce the dimension and combat the main battlefield of the functional machine that is making big money. The same is unrealistic at all.

Therefore, the "iPhone14 may be the sign of Apple's prosperity and decline", which is said to be an argument that the "iPhone14 may be an extremely declining sign of Apple. It is nothing more than the iPhone14 without innovation.

In fact, the iPhone14 has also made a smart island that makes people shine. In the past, there were more iPhones that had no innovative iPhone. The degree is almost comparable to the iPhone6, and whether it is iPhone13 or iPhone6, there are almost no innovations visible to the naked eye.

However, because the iPhone13 series is too popular, it has also absorbed many users who originally belonged to the iPhone14 series. I have a friend who is a friend who is a terminal data analysis. The data is calculated through the data of each platform. Compared with the iPhone13 series in the first three days, it was about 16%year -on -year. However, because the data is a approximate proportion calculated, there is a certain existing in and out of the real data. What is the specific gap? It may be seen from the future Apple financial report data.

Therefore, under the environment of downturn, excessive consumption this year, and the decline in the overall smartphone market, Apple really wants to counter the market trend, it is still difficult, and it is difficult for Apple to escape the cycle of the entire industry.

But in summary, Apple has experienced multiple low tide in just 7 to 8 years. For strength, supply chain and ecological competitiveness, and brand competitiveness, Apple's comprehensive strength has not weakened in the past, but has strengthened.

Less Ren Zeping style "publicity"

Ren Zeping said, "Huawei dumped several streets in Apple." As a result, he didn't even know what Huawei in his hand was. A sharp -eyed netizen found that he had always used the Huawei P30 Pro, not Mate 30 Pro.

In fact, in the past two years that Huawei has faded, behind the growth of Apple's sales, it is actually strengthening its competitiveness at all levels from the underlying chip and software services. Experience -it is the underlying interaction of the system. It requires Apple to allow third -party software developers to adapt to the interaction of smart island, which itself constitutes a complete closed loop of software and hardware interaction ecosystem.

In addition to the continuous improvement of performance and opening the gap, Apple is also based on the M1 series chips, which has opened up the ecology of Mac, iPhone, and iPad, and achieves the unity of soft and hardware. The more powerful comes. From the perspective of current variable aperture, battery technology, satellite communication, etc., Huawei is still working hard to innovate, which also allows the industry to see sincerity, but objectively, the gap between the two is not reduced, but enlarged.

A certain iPhone is the turning point of Apple from prosperity to declining. In fact, it is old. Because Ren Zeping has mixed the real estate circle in the past, it suddenly arrived. The amazing words have aroused the attention of the industry, and it is also original.

However, the industry requires less Ren Zeping style. For domestic manufacturers or practitioners, it should not be disturbed by this amazing language of lack of common sense. It is the right thing to be innovative and research and development. Judging from the actual situation of the mobile phone industry today, winter belongs to non -apple manufacturers, and the spring of Apple has always been there.

Author: Wang Xinxi TMT senior commentator.

- END -