Dialogue with Xingye Securities Hong Jiajun: Even if it is an analog chip, it may also be provided in the middle of next year ｜ Smart money

In the next six months, it will be de -inventory cycles.

Wen ｜ Song Wanxin

Edit ｜ Pan Xinyi

Source ｜ 36 氪 Finance (ID: krfinance)

Cover Source ｜ Vision China

The super cycle of the chip is gone.

Earlier, the "chip shortage" spread, and multiple factors such as the new crown epidemic, new energy vehicles, and 5G superimposed, jointly pushed the prices of some tight chips, coupled with the phenomenon of malicious speculation, the price of chips soared in irrationality. According to CCTV news reports, Italian semiconductor chips were one of the most pretty chip products in 2021, and the market quotation rose to about 3,500 yuan.

This rising cycle lasts for two years, which is a "long" upward channel for the chip industry. According to data from the WSTS World Semiconductor Trade Statistics Association, in 2021, global chip sales increased by 26.2%year -on -year.

However, the inflection point will always come. Beginning this year, macroex factors such as inflation and interest rate hikes have all appeared, resulting in weak consumer electronics demand. Once terminal manufacturers' inventory is too high and purchasing demand decreases, it will cut orders for upstream chips out of the demand for inventory. It is transmitted to the chip factory, and the previously hoarded goods have become inventory pressed in the hand.

Many semiconductor listed companies show that the year -on -year growth rate of inventory in the first quarter of this year reached more than 70%. Essence

When the market supply is greater than demand, chip manufacturers naturally need to clear inventory for balance.

Price reduction is the most direct way. The aforementioned semiconductor chip fell to about 600 yuan this year, down exceeding 80%. The price of another model was maintained at 200 yuan last year. one.

The GPU represented by Nvidia also fell sharply. Nvidia's game graphics card RTX3090 dropped from 22,000 yuan in the second half of last year to the recent 10499 yuan, and RTX 3080 dropped from 14,000 yuan to 5999 yuan.

Although the current performance of industrial and automotive chips is relatively stable when consumer electronics chips plummeted, in the long run, the scope of weak chips may be further expanded, affecting industrial and automotive chips.

Hong Jiajun, chief analyst of Overseas TMT Overseas TMT, told 36 氪: "Even if it is an analog chip, it will start to be too required in the middle of next year to the second half of next year." Previously, Mark Murphy, chief financial officer of Meiguang Technology, also said that industrial enterprises and automakers and automobile manufacturers Become the latest group of customers who cut chip orders.

After the overheated foam in the industry is shattered, the consensus reached by the practitioners is that the chip will enter a period of recession. As for how long the downward period will last, Hong Jiajun said: "From the perspective of overseas, the stock price may not be broken, but the fundamentals will continue to decline. In the next six months, it will be a destocking cycle."

As the chip industry fell into the valley, 36 氪 conducted an exclusive interview with Hong Jiajun, chief analyst of Xingye Securities Overseas TMT, to discuss the impact of the industrial cycle and upstream and downstream.

The following is an interview refinement:

丨 36 氪: From the perspective of the recent price plunge, consumer electronic chips have entered a downlink period of regression rationality. How long will you estimate the downward period?

Hong Jiajun: The fastest will be the end of this year, and then the pessimistic words may be in the second quarter or even the third quarter, so I think it should be around the first quarter of next year, the inventory water level drops to a relatively normal position.

丨 36 氪: What is the impact of the upstream and downstream industrial chain?

Hong Jiajun: For the industrial chain, in the middle and lower reaches, the biggest influence is the terminal of the terminal, such as the mobile phone PC; the server is watching it because the server is to B, then the needs of the to B, and the US cloud computing leader is still on the demand side. The prosperity of the industry has been affected recently, but it is not particularly desperate.

However, the demand for mobile phones is no longer possible, so the second quarter to bottom out. As for whether it can be warmed in the third quarter, there are differences in the market. Some people think that the third quarter will be as bad as the second quarter, and it is possible to continue destocking.

丨 36 氪: What about semiconductors?

Hong Jiajun: For semiconductors, chip manufacturers have the most influential influence, which will be based on optional consumer products. For example, Nvidia's gaming graphics card, and then PC chips are also affected. The pressure is the most. For the production side, the wafer foundry is now like TSMC, like UMC, and the utilization rate has begun to be affected.

According to the product type, the consumption type is the weakest, and then the high -performance computing class, the most stable is car -related. At present, foundries have been adjusted between products, but the car now has only individual products that are relatively scarce. On the whole, it is significantly alleviated than the previous state.

丨 36 氪: What is the impact of factors such as chip prices and rising supply chain costs such as rising supply chain costs?

Hong Jiajun: I feel that the cause and effect relationship is reversed. In fact, it is only that the price of consumer electronics (sales) does not work, because the chip demand declines before the price declines, because the previous price increase is too much. Therefore, consumer electronics may be reduced, but it is not mainly because of the decline in cost; the cost of chip companies is more space -making, but the source is because the manufacturer needs to promote the promotion and destocking. This is the main driver of the price reduction.

Therefore, from this perspective, it can only be said that the cost of chip declines, which can dilute part of the negative impact on consumer electronics price reduction promotion.丨 36 氪: What is the effectiveness of domestic replacement in recent years? What are the potential of curve overtaking in the future?

Hong Jiajun: I think there is a lot of power chips now. Because of its strong local demand and rapid development of the application industry, whether it is investing or in product applications, companies will be more handy.

There will be a car chip, but the verification cycle of the car will be relatively long. Of course, a lot of things overlap in cars and power, but simply in terms of product types, power includes an industrial chain like silicon carbide and IGBT. There are a lot of domestic investment.

Igbt I think it is a better example. Some people think that Ying Feiling and Texas instruments are very high, but in fact, several domestic products are doing well. Silicon carbide now I think the same situation is the same. Although the production cost is very high, others have been doing it for one or twenty years, and we can't catch up now, but in the long run, this one in China must still have a place, at least not It will be too much different from overseas faucets. Therefore, I think that in the field of power chips, there are still the opportunity to have curve overtaking products.

In addition, due to the risks of previously disconnected by car chips, manufacturers are now increasing this. But this is different from the power chip. Many of the car chips are "diverse and small". Before that, everyone would focus on logical chips. But now that new energy vehicles have become the trend. After the domestic brands are up, in fact, everyone's investment in car chips will gradually increase, so I think these two tracks are the most opportunities to achieve domestic replacement.

There is also one that cannot be said to be overtaking, but it is necessary to rise, that is, the upstream equipment raw materials. Because in the future, after the global supply chain gradually moves towards regionality, domestic must have its own end -to -end equipment. At least 28 nanometer -level process must be a national production chain, and even 14 nanometers.

丨 36 氪: The car chip is still in the state of stocking, and it is relatively short. How do you estimate the development trend after the car chip? Will there be similar consumer electronic chips?

Hong Jiajun: It is more universal, which will be like this. Even if it is analog chip, it may begin to be too required in the middle of next year to the second half of next year.

丨 36 氪: But from the perspective of the secondary market, since April this year, the semiconductor industry index has continued to rise, an increase of nearly 40%, what is the reason?

Hong Jiajun: The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was topped from November to December last year. After the first time many companies issued a financial report, everyone was worried about the growth rate of 22 years. On the one hand, there are some downlink indicators (especially demand). Of course, there is no consensus at that time, but individual institutions are already worried about this. Later, including the overall US market, demand, and supply chain issues, and then the issue of the Russian and Ukraine War has been increasing the pressure of the sector. Therefore, from the high point to the middle of this year, it was basically cut, and it currently dropped by about 30%.

Recent rebounds, several factors driving valuations.

On the one hand, although the market is not optimistic about the prosperity, in the second quarter report, most leading companies are still exceeded or met with expectations. The performance level is not particularly poor, so it can alleviate the panic emotions of the market and the valuation repair; then from the guidelines Looking at it, some companies' guidelines may be better than expected throughout the year, so there have been such a long rebound in the past two months.

Of course, there is another piece that the US stocks themselves have also been repaired from the panic. Because the semiconductor is relatively large, when they fluctuate in the market, they will rise and fall. These factors are superimposed, including the performance of the interim report better than expected, and then the guidance of individual companies is not so bad.

丨 36 氪: What do you think of the recent rise and fall of the fruit chain?

Hong Jiajun: The fruit chain was suppressed as a whole, except Apple.

Therefore, in terms of actual needs, it should be stabilized and rebounded. Of course, some are just valuation repair. Those companies with higher share growth will be more sustainable, and others may just repair valuation. Because these are domestic ones, many of them also do Android, but the overall industry is still not particularly optimistic, so I think the valuation repair is comprehensive, but the growth of performance is individual.

丨 36 氪: Looking back on the impact of the semiconductor cycle in history on the industry, how can you predict the industry development in the future?

Hong Jiajun: From the perspective of overseas, the stock price may not be broken, but the fundamentals continue to decline. Because of the few factors just mentioned, there are not particularly big changes. In the next six months, it may be an inventory cycle.

Then the profit margin of the wafer foundry is also declining. Of course, there are individual manufacturers, such as domestic replacement or TSMC. They are better, but they also decline.

In terms of equipment manufacturers, especially overseas leaders, because on the one hand, restrictions on China, at the same time, their own production costs are relatively high. The company's profit margin and even orders are declining.

Therefore, I think that the short -term fundamentals are not particularly good, and the pressure may be relatively large in semiconductor 1 to 2 quarters. Only in the first quarter of next year or the second quarter will reverse the fundamentals, but the stock price will begin to reflect the prosperity 1 quarter in advance.

*Disclaimer:

The content of this article only represents the author's opinion.

Market risk, the investment need to be cautious. In any case, the information in this article or the opinions expressed in this article does not constitute investment suggestions for anyone. Before deciding to invest, if necessary, investors must consult with professionals and make careful decisions. We have no intention of providing underwriting services or any services that need to be held in the transaction parties.

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